AINTREE – APRIL 7
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £9,946.90 (8 favourites – No winners – 3 placed – 5 unplaced)
Friday's Placepot permutation at Aintree:
Leg 1 (1.40): 21 (Sky Khan), 16 (Dream Berry) & 1 (North Hill Harvey)
Leg 2 (2.20): 6 (Mount Mews), 8 (River Wylde) & 3 (Chti Balko)
Leg 3 (2.50): 3 (Might Bite) & 5 (Whisper)
Leg 4 (3.25): 6 (Sub Lieutenant), 2 (God’s Own) & 3 (Jossess Hill)
Leg 5 (4.05): 15 (Henryville), 20 (Seefood), 19 (Go Conquer) & 11 (Gold Present)
Leg 6 (4.40): 11 (The Worlds End) & 3 (Constantine Hill)
Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.40: Six-year-olds have won six of the last ten renewals, with vintage representatives at around 7/4 to extend the trend via the declarations before the form book is consulted. DREAM BERRY, NORTH HILL HARVEY and RATHER BE are considered as the pick of the relevant entries this time around. That said, SKY KHAN looks to have been presented with a definite chance here, having finished fourth in the race twelve months ago when carrying an additional eight pounds. Lucinda Russell’s representative boasts definite claims off 10-10 from my viewpoint, whilst Hawk High ran well enough at Cheltenham to suggest that he can become competitive three weeks on.
Favourite factor: 12 of the last 15 winners were sent off at odds ranging between 10/1 and 50/1 with successful favourites only conspicuous by their absence. The previous nine favourites had finished out with the washing before the 15/2 market leader secured the bronze medal in 2013. The race reverted to type in 2014 when the 4/1 market leader finished back in 14th place when 19 completed the course. Two of the subsequent four favourites (via two renewals) secured Placepot positions without winning their respective events.
Aintree record of course winners in the opening contest:
2/3—Hawk High (2 x good)
1/1—Geordie Des Champs (good to soft)
2/6—Clondaw Kaempfer (good to soft & soft)
2.20: Five-year-olds have a fantastic record in this race (the vintage have claimed 19 of the last 32 renewals--representatives finished 1-2-3-4 seven years ago and 1-2-3-4-5 in 2010 + the forecast positions five years back. Vintage representatives filled the first seven positions twelve months ago, albeit via 82% of the total number of runners. To make the figures stand out further still, it should be noted that vintage representatives in 2013 were conspicuous only by their absence. Three five-year-olds line up on this occasion, with 14/1 chance CHTI BALKO boasting each way claims. That said, I appreciate that more logical winners in the field include MOUNT MEWS and RIVER WYLDE.
Favourite factor: Four favourites have won this event via the last 17 renewals, with seven of the last eight market leaders having secured toteplacepot positions.
2.50: Seven-year-olds have won nine of the last nineteen renewals of this event, yet vintage representatives are only conspicuous by their absence this time around. MIGHT BITE and WHISPER seemingly offer Nicky Henderson a stranglehold in this event, with the Friday of the meeting having been kind to the trainer down the years. Nicky has saddled no less than twelve winners on the corresponding day of the meeting during the last six years!
Favourite factor: Going back a long time, 14 of the last 27 renewals (52%) have been won by market leaders, whilst 26 of those gold medallists were returned in single figures. Seven of the last fourteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.
Aintree record of course winners in the third event:
2/3—Virgilio (good & good to soft)
2/2—Whisper (good & good to soft)
3.25: The last eleven winners have been aged between seven and nine and the trend will be extended on this occasion as all nine runners qualify via the vintage trends. For those who keep records, this stat is still worth its weight in gold because with just two qualifiers last year, 10/1 winner GOD’S OWN scored even though the 1/5 market leader (Vatour) fell when going well when trying to extend the ratio. SUB LIEUTENANT and JOSSES HILL are added to the mix this time around.
Favourite factor: The first successful winning favourite of this event was Remittance Man for Nicky Henderson at odds of 4/9 back in 1992. A further ten market leaders have won, whilst eight of the fourteen market leaders during the last twelve years have claimed toteplacepot positions.
Aintree record of course winners in the fourth race:
1/3—God’s Own (good to soft)
1/2—Josses Hill (good to soft)
1/3—Royal Regatta (good)
4.05: 13 of the last 16 winners of this event (run over the Grand National fences) have carried weights of 10-12 or less, whilst ten of the last fourteen winners scored at 50/1-33/1-25/1-22/1-22/1-16/1-14/1-14/1-11/1-10/1. Nine and ten-year-olds have won eight of the last fifteen renewals whilst securing 33 of the 60 (55%) available toteplacepot positions between them. Only two Irish trained winner have emerged in the last 37 years. Putting the stats and facts together produces an overnight ‘short list’ of HENRYVILLE, SEEFOOD, GO CONQUER and GOLD PRESENT, especially when digesting the fact that Nicky Henderson (saddles the latter named raider) has saddled three of the last four winners.
Favourite factor: Just one (joint) favourite has won the ‘Topham’ via the last eighteen contests. Only four of the sixteen favourites during the last thirteen years have claimed toteplacepot positions.
Aintree record over the Grand National fences of course winner in the fifth race (there are five other winners at Aintree included in the field but those gold medallists scored over the Mildmay course):
4.40: Six-year-olds hold the call in the toteplacepot finale (winners of six of the last nine contests) and vintage representatives secured the first four places seven years back and silver and bronze medals five years ago. Throw the 2013 1-2-3-4 result and last year’s 1-2-3 via vintage representatives and you can probably guess why my overnight trio against the other nine contenders consists of THE WORLDS END, CONSTANTINE BAY and DEBECE, especially as another great result (1-3-4) ensued three years ago. Keeper Hill receives the reserve nomination.
Favourite factor: Six renewals had slipped by since a favourite prevailed before the 2013 market leader fought back on behalf of punters. The last three favourites have been beaten, whilst eight of the thirteen favourites have finished in the frame (exact science) in as many years.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Aintree card on Friday – followed by their winners at the track this season:
11 runners—Nicky Henderson (1 winner at 4/9*)
7—Colin Tizzard (1 winner at 5/1)
5—Tom George (4 winners at 33/1, 7/1, 7/2 & Evens*)
5—Nigel Twiston-Davies (2 winners at 9/1 & 5/1)
4—Harry Fry (2 winners at 9/1 & 4/1)
4—Paul Nicholls (4 winners at 5/1, 4/1*, 3/1 & 7/4**)
4—Jonjo O’Neill (1 winner at 15/2)
3—Rebecca Curtis (1 winner at 6/4*)
3—Dan Skelton (1 winner at 5/2)
2—Henry De Bromhead
2—Warren Greatrex (1 winner at 4/1)
2—Philip Hobbs (1 winner at 4/11*)
2—Alan King (1 winner at 4/1*)
2—Ben Pauling (1 winner at 9/2)
2—David Pipe (8/1 & 13/8*)
2—Tim Vaughan (1 winner at 20/1)
+ 27 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
107 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividend from last year:
Leicester: £112.60 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced