AINTREE – APRIL 8
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £359.10 (9 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 6 unplaced)
Friday's Placepot permutation at Aintree:
Leg 1 (1.40): 1 (Theinval), 14 (Tycoon Prince) & 11 (Ma Du Fou)
Leg 2 (2.15): 11 (Limini) & 5 (Buveur D'Air)
Leg 3 (2.50): 8 (Un Yemps Pour Tout), 2 (Blacklion) & 4 (Native River)
Leg 4 (3.25): 5 (Vautour) & 2 (Clarcam)
Leg 5 (4.05): 15 (Gallery Exhibition), 4 (Cocktails At Dawn), 26 (Gullinbursti) & 18 (Pass The Hat)
Leg 6 (4.40): 5 (Ballyoptic), 9 (Gangster) & 11 (Mystical Knight)
Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes
1.40: Six-year-olds have won six of the last nine renewals, with vintage representatives at around 85/40 to extend the trend via the declarations before the form book is consulted. Six-year-old THEINVAL won this event last year and with trainer Nicky Henderson having saddled eleven winners on the Friday of the meeting during the last five years, Jeremiah McGrath's mount is the first name on the team sheet. Hopefully the ground will dry out to good to soft overnight on the hurdles course, those conditions having been in place twelve months ago. John Ferguson is rapidly running out of time to saddle a big race winner before he retires whereby QEWY would be a popular scorer, though TYCOON PRINCE and MA DU FOU are marginally preferred this time around.
Favourite factor: 11 of the last 14 winners were sent off at odds ranging between 10/1 and 50/1 with successful favourites only conspicuous by their absence. The previous nine favourites had finished out with the washing before the 15/2 market leader secured the bronze medal in 2013. The race reverted to type in 2014 when the 4/1 market leader finished back in 14th place when 19 completed the course. Last year's market leader secured a Placepot position without winning the race.
Aintree record of course winners in the opening contest:
2.15: Five-year-olds have a fantastic record in this race (the vintage have claimed 18 of the last 31 renewals--representatives finished 1-2-3-4 seven years ago and 1-2-3-4-5 in 2010 + the forecast positions four years back. To make the figures stand out further still, it should be noted that vintage representatives in 2013 were conspicuous only by their absence. LIMINI looks sure to extend the trend given what we witnessed at Cheltenham but even if the first plan goes base over apex, there is always Nicky Henderson's 'Triumph' bronze medallist BUVEUR D'AIR to lean on. If that's not enough to captivate your attention span, throw BLEU ET ROUGE into the overnight mix.
Favourite factor: Four favourites have won this event via the last 16 renewals, six of the last seven market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions. Favourites came to the gig on a four timer last year but the 7/4 market leader finished out of the frame in fourth place.
Aintree record of course winners in the second contest on the card:
2.50: Seven-year-olds have won nine of the last 18 renewals of this event and vintage representatives are even money to extend the trend this time around before form is taken into consideration. The pick of the quartet of relevant representatives should prove to be UN TEMPS POUR TOUT and BLACKLION. The latter named raider might find this circuit a little on the quick side but his tenacity earns him a Placepot vote at the very least. If vintage raiders are to be denied on this occasion, NATIVE RIVER could prove to be the 'spoiler' in the pack at rewarding odds.
Favourite factor: Going back a long time, 14 of the last 26 renewals (54%) have been won by market leaders, whilst 25 of those gold medallists were returned in single figures. Seven of the last thirteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.
3.25: The last ten winners have been aged between seven and nine and with VAUTOUR being one of just two relevant entries this time around, the trend looks sure to be extended. Some of us thought that Willie Mullins made a rare error in not sending the 'Ryanair' winner to the Gold Cup which looked there for the taking. Upwards and onward I guess as the hugely talented seven-year-old barely had a race at Cheltenham whereas a Gold Cup assignment might have left its mark. CLARCAM was the winner of a Grade 1 contest at this meeting last year whereby Gordon Elliot's raider could prove to be the value for money forecast call.
Favourite factor: The first successful winning favourite of this event was Remittance Man for Nicky Henderson at odds of 4/9 back in 1992. A further ten market leaders have won, whilst eight of the thirteen market leaders during the last eleven years have claimed toteplacepot positions.
4.05: 12 of the last 15 winners of this event (run over the Grand National fences) have carried weights of 10-12 or less, whilst nine of the last thirteen winners scored at 50/1-33/1-25/1-22/1-16/1-14/1-14/1-11/1-10/1. Nine and ten-year-olds have won seven of the last 14 renewals whilst securing 29 of the 56 (52%) available toteplacepot positions between them. Only two Irish trained winner have emerged in the last 36 years. Putting the stats and facts together produces an overnight ‘short list’ of GALLERY EXHIBITION, GULLINBURSTI and PASS THE HAT. You don't have to go too far back in time to establish that COCKTAILS AT DAWN is a class act in the line-up, especially if you ignore the trends that I have focussed upon, especially when digesting the fact that Nicky Henderson comes to the gig on a four timer.
Favourite factor: Just one (joint) favourite has won the ‘Topham’ via the last 17 contests. Only four of the fifteen favourites during the last twelve years have claimed tioteplacepot positions.
4.40: Six-year-olds hold the call in the toteplacepot finale (winners of five of the last eight contests) and vintage representatives secured the first four places six years back and silver and bronze medals five years ago. Throw the 2013 1-2-3-4 result via vintage representatives and you can probably guess why my overnight quartet against the other contenders consists of BALLYOPTIC, and GANGSTER, especially as another great result (1-3-4) ensued two years ago. That said, seven-year-olds have also been winning of late whereby this year's two relevant raider are also under consideration at the overnight stage, namely MYSTICAL KNIGHT and SANDYMOUNT DUKE.
Favourite factor: Six renewals had slipped by since a favourite prevailed before the 2013 market leader fought back on behalf of punters. The last two favourites have been beaten, whilst seven of the twelve favourites have finished in the frame (exact science) during the last twelve years.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Aintree card on Friday:
16--Willie Mullins (1/1 at Aintree this season - stats offered before Thursday's results)
7--Paul Nicholls (1/6)
6--Nigel Twiston-Davies (3/9)
5--Jonjo O'Neill (1/8)
4--Peter Bowen (0/12)
4--Gordon Elliott (0/1)
4--Donald McCain (0/11)
3--Nicky Henderson (5/12)
3--Philip Hobbs (2/9)
3--David Pipe (0/3)
3--Dan Skelton (3/11)
3--Venetia Williams (2/4)
2--John Ferguson (1/6)
2--Warren Greatrex (1/3)
2--Sue Smith (0/6)
2--Tom Symonds (--)
2--Colin T-zzard (--)
2--Ian Williams (0/1)
+ 38 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
111 declared runners