Placepot pointers – Friday August 19

YORK - AUGUST 19

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2015: £307.30 (7 favourites - 1 winner - 4 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at York: 

Leg 1 (1.55): 1 (Basanti), 2 (Stars Over The Sea) & 3 (Gold Prince)

Leg 2 (2.30): 6 (Trip To Paris) & 4 (Quest For More)

Leg 3 (3.05): 5 (Librisi Breeze), 1 (Charming Thought) & 2 (Flash Fire)

Leg 4 (3.40): 19 (Prince Of Lir), 20 (Yalta), 7 (Muthmir) & 1 (Brando)

Leg 5 (4.20): 9 (Rivet) & 14 (Dance Teacher)

Leg 6 (4.55): 5 (Markhan), 12 (Viscount Barfield) & 16 (Blacklister)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for York - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.55: Four-year-olds have secured six of the last ten contests contests or seven of ten if you prefer, as two vintage representatives dead heated last year!.  The last eight winners have carried 9-3 or more which is extremely relevant to this year’s contest, as just two horses pass the weight 'qualification', namely BASANTI and and STARS OVER THE SEA. Indeed, BARSANTI is the lone qualifier if we additionally take the vintage trend into account. A little further down the handicap, GOLD PRINCE could go well for Frankie Dettori, with Sylvester Kirk having enjoyed a great start to the month of August.  Add the fact that Frankie's mount sits just 32 ounces below the official 'weight barrier' suggests that we have our third option for the opening event.

Favourite factor: One clear and one joint favourite have won via the last thirteen renewals, with four winners scoring at odds ranging between 33/1 and 50/1. That said, five of the last ten favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.

Draw factor (12 furlongs):

10-8-19-1 (17 ran-good to soft - dead heat 1st place)

6-18-4-5 (16 ran-good)

10-2-16 (14 ran-good to soft)

17-14-3-4 (19 ran-good)

2-1-4-11 (20 ran-good to soft)

10-8-17-2 (16 ran-good)

12-10-9 (14 ran-good to firm)

16-8-6-4 (19 ran-good)

11-9-8-1 (19 ran-good to soft)

8-14-16-9 (18 ran-good)

19-3-1-17 (21 ran-good)

6-19-7-15 (18 ran-good to firm)

11-16-12-13 (20 ran-good)

11-14-4-9 (20 ran-good)

10-7-3-15 (18 ran-good)

6-4-3-16 (18 ran-good)

10-8-14 (14 ran-good)

14-4-10 (15 ran-good)

2.30: Four-year-olds have won four of the last eight contests whilst securing ten of the last twenty one available toteplacepot positions, despite the vintage not having been represented two years ago.  Accordingly, it defies belief that no 'junior' runners have been declared but as five-year-olds come to the gig on a hat trick, we have hope left to cling onto, with TRIP TO PARIS have been entered into the fray.  Last year's Ascot Gold Cup winner has plenty of ticks in boxes in terms of this opposition and I think it would be a little worrying for connections if Ed Dunlop's raider failed to become competitive at the business end of the contest in this grade/company.  We all have horses that we struggle to 'get right' and Pallisator is one such thoroughbred from my perspective.  I prefer QUEST FOR MORE which will witness hoards of people backing Sir Mark Prescott's raider (Pallasator) having passed him up on this occasion.

Favourite factor: 13 of the last 14 winners have been returned at odds of 8/1 or less, whilst six clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the last 18 contests.  13 of the 18 market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.

3.05: Four-year-olds have won five of the last nine contests in a race which was held on the Saturday of the four day fixture until a few of years ago.  Only three vintage representative have been declared this year which I cannot understand, though upwards and onward in positive mode by suggesting that LIBRISA BREEZE and Charlie Appleby's pair CHARMING THOUGHT and FLASH FIRE can all figure prominently.  The first named Dean Ivory raider landed a gamble and a half at Ascot last time out and it could just be that the Mount Nelson representative could become something of a seven furlong specialist.  In days of old, races of any consequence over this distance were few and far between but thankfully, there are some rich pickings to be had for connections in modern times. That said, three-year-old raider FORGE looks sure to give his running having only found one too good in a similar (Group 3) event at Goodwood last time out.

Favourite factor: Seven favourites have won via the last eighteen renewals, whilst fourteen market leaders have reached the frame in the process.

Draw factor' (7 furlongs):

4-3-1 (14 ran-good to soft)

6-7-2 (13 ran-good)

3-8 (6 ran-soft)

8-5-11 ( 9 ran-good to soft)

8-6-3 (11 ran-good)

6-15-2 (10 ran-good to firm)

11/12 (dead heat)-7 (12 ran-good to firm)

3-1-8 (14 ran-good)

6-4-8 (10 ran-soft)

5-4-3 (11 ran-good to firm)

7-11-6 (11 ran-soft)

8-4-2 (8 ran-good to firm)

4-5-11 (10 ran-good to firm)

1-4-5 (8 ran-good)

7-8-9 (11 ran-good)

4-10-5 (11 ran—good)

6-2 (6 ran-firm)

6-3-2 (9 ran-good)

3.40: People have been suggesting to me that I have been less than respectful to supposed ‘top notch‘ sprinters in recent years but lets have a look at the facts shall we.  Sharpo achieved the true sense of a hat trick back in the eighties, whilst other brilliant speedsters to win include Never So Bold, Lochsong and the truly brilliant Dayjur.  The last two-year-old winner of the race (there have only been two juvenile winners during the last 36 years) was Kingsgate Native back in 2007 though given my argument, it is hardly surprising to find Robert Cowell (PRINCE OF LIR) and Mark Johnston (YALTA) taking a crack at the big price with their young horses.  If the juniors miss out again, I could given a each way chance to MUTHMIR.  LIMATO is an obvious danger if the ground remains on the fast side, though the fact that Henry Candy's representative tackles five furlongs for the first time is a worrying scnario.  BRANDO can rarely (if ever) be left out of the equation at the overnight stage.

Favourite factor: Five favourites landed the ‘Nunthorpe’ in successive seasons between 1999 and 2003, though 12 of the other 14 market leaders failed to add to the record during the study period.  Just five of those beaten favourites managed to snare additional toteplacepot positions.  Seven of the last nine winners scored at 100/1-40/1-20/1-12/1-12/1-9/1-15/2.

Draw factor (6 furlongs):

10-4-5 (19 ran-good to soft)

10-2-7 (13 ran-good)

8-5-2 (17 ran-good to soft)

8-10-1 (19 ran-good)

11-15-7 (15 ran-good to soft)

11-13-2 (12 ran-good to firm)

2-11-9 (16 ran-good to firm)

13-7-16 (16 ran-good)

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6-16-2 (14 ran-soft)

8-12-13 (16 ran-good to firm)

5-11-15 (12 ran-soft)

2-3-1 (8 ran-good to firm)

15-16-11 (17 ran-good to firm)

4-8-3 (10 ran-good)

1-14-10 (13 ran-good)

13-1-3 (16 ran-good)

2-4-8 (17 ran-firm)

4.20: Three horses line up having finished second on their debut efforts and of the trio, RIVET is preferred to DANCE TEACHER, with Max Zorin overlooked on this occasion.  There are worse outsiders on the card than MIDAAWY, especially with Kevin Ryan having saddled all of his five winners on the Knavesmire this season via his juvenile team.  Indeed, Kevin's strike rate with two-year-olds during the last five years at York stands at 19.2% via 19 winners at the time of writing, compared to a ratio of 4.5% via seven winners with his older raiders.

Favourite factor:  Four of the six favourites (via five renewals) have secured toteplacepot positions (one 6/4 winner) in a race which has been revamped in recent years.

Draw factor (7 furlongs):

2-16-12 (18 ran-good to soft)

10-7-12 (16 ran-good)

2-10-13 (12 ran-good to soft)

8-11-5 (10 ran-good)

6-4-8 (17 ran-good to soft)

4-12-13 (17 ran-good to firm)

4.55: Eight of the ten available toteplacepot positions thus far have been claimed by horses carrying a maximum weight of 9-2 and though three renewals hardly constitutes a trend, this self confessed 'anaorak' has to have something to cling to in offering an 'edge', especially when the figures include all three (33/1-16/1-5/1) winners. MARKHAN, VISCOUNT BARFIELD and BLACKLISTER will represent yours truly in the Placepot finale, with BOBBIE WHEELER offered up as the overnight reserve.

Favourite factor: All three (5-1-4/1-11/4) favourites have finished out with the washing this far.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the York card on Friday - stats are relevant up to and including Wednesday August 17:

5--Richard Fahey (6/78 at York this season - winners at 33/1-20/1-10/1-13/2-5/1-4/1)

5--Kevin Ryan (5/33 - winners at 16/1-5/1-9/2-3/1-13/8*)

4--Mark Johnston (2/39 - winners at 9/1 & 5/1)

3--Charlie Appleby (1/11 - winner at 3/1**)

3--Robert Cowell (0/4)

3--Clive Cox (0/2)

3--Michael Dods (3/11 - winners at 14/1-11/2-10/3*)

3--William Haggas (4/17 - winners at 11/1-3/1*-11/4*6/5*)

3--Charlie Hills (2/8 - winners at 9/2* & 5/2*)

3--David O'Meara (1/67 - winners at 8/1)

2--Andrew Balding (0/7)

2--Marco Botti (0/1)

2--Luca Cumani (0/5)

2--Dean Ivory (0/6)

2--Sylvester Kirk (0/1)

2--Jeremy Noseda (1/3 - winner at 6/5*)

+ 39 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

86 declared runners

 

General overview - corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Bangor: £77.20 - 6 winners - 1 winner - 2 placed - 3 unplaced

Salisbury: £90.60 - 7 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced

Sandown: £143.50 - 6 favourites - 4 winners & 2 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £37.90 - 6 favourites - 1 winner - 4 placed - 1 unplaced

 

York overview - 5 year juvenile record of represented trainers in the relevant event at 4.20 (stats relevant up to and including Wednesday August 17:

16/183--Richard Fahey (Abiento)

1/7--Clive Cox (Black Trilby)

3/16--Charlie Appleby (Capazzano)

No runners--David Menusier (Contrapposto)

0/4--Jeremy Noseda (First Up)

2/11--Andrew Balding (Max Zorin)

19/99--Kevin Ryan (Midaawi)

0/7--James Bethell (Portledge)

11/41--William Haggas (Rivet)

0/1--Marcus Tregoning (Star Stream)

2/21--Karl Burke (Upgrade)

0/7--Hugo Palmer (Via Serendipity)

5/93--Mark Johnston (Celestation)

2/8--Ralph Beckett (Dance Teacher)

 

 

 

 

 

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