NEWMARKET - AUGUST 5
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £33.60 (10 favourites - 5 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced) - Mick Channon secured a 7/2 double on last year's card
Friday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket:
Leg 1 (5.35): 5 (Elas Rose), 9 (Sparkle) & 8 (Island In The Sky)
Leg 2 (6.05): 2 (Dewan) & 8 (Ivors Magic)
Leg 3 (6.40): 2 (Caramaru), 6 (Seniority) & 1 (Anerican Patrol)
Leg 4 (7.10): 2 (Bridge Of Sighs), 4 (Hollywood Road) & 9 (Marshal Dan Troop)
Leg 5 (7.45): 3 (Dazzling Rose), 5 (City Chic) & 6 (Shafafya)
Leg 6 (8.20): 9 (Excellent George) & 1 (Solar Flair)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Newmarket - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
5.35: It's not often that a meeting offers three juvenile races for starters, especially when they are ordinary events by Newmarket standards. Upwards and onward in positive mode however by suggesting that John Gosden's Raven's Pass filly ELAS ROSE could score at the second time of asking having been beaten less than two lengths at Kempton on debut. SPARKLE and ISLAND IN THE SKY are feared most at the overnight stage.
Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to open proceedings at Newmarket on Friday evening.
6.05: The last fifteen winners of this juvenile selling event have been returned at odds of 7/1 or less, albeit just four successful favourites were recorded during the study period. Judged on the declarations for this event, it is just as well that Newmarket does not stage too many selling contests! I guess that DEWAN would have claims here if turning up for the gig after finishing third at Nottingham on Tuesday. Mick Channon declared from day one that his Elzaam colt would take time, whereby it is a little surprising that the middle/late April foal is a little exposed already. Nothing much else appeals in all honesty so I think DEWAN will be given his chance if at all possible, with connections probably fearing IVOR'S MAGIC and LUDUAMF more than most in a disappointing event, even by 'seller' standards.
Favourite factor: Five favourites have won during the last eighteen years, whilst ten of the nineteen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.
6.40: A race over this (seven furlong) trip for ‘babies’ which have not set foot on a racecourse inevitably draws the assessment that there will be an element of luck involved should any of us select the winner because aside from positive market activity, this looks to be a ‘pin job’ if ever there was one, especially with so many leading trainers involved. The three horses which were particularly pointed out by their respective trainers before the season started via stable tours were CARAMARU, SENIORITY and AMERICAN PATROL, though your guess is as good as mine at this stage.
Favourite factor: Ten clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the last nineteen years. 15 of the 20 market leaders have secured a toteplacepot position during the study period.
7.10: 11 of the last 12 winners have carried weights of 9-0 or more, with five runners being discarded accordingly this time around (including those with jockey claims). Four-year-olds have snared five renewals during the last 13 years, though horses with ticks in both of the weight and vintage boxes this time around are in short supple or very short supply, as BRIDGE OF SIGHS stands alone from the crowd! Dual beaten favourite HOLLYWOOD ROAD deserves to get his head in front following three successive silver medal efforts, whilst MARSHAL DAN TROOP completes my trio against the other ten contenders.
Favourite factor: Five favourites have won via 15 renewals during the last 17 years, whilst 10 of the 18 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.
Record of course winners in the fourth race on the card:
1/1--Artful Prince (good)
4/12--Trulee Scrumptious (good to firm-good-good to soft-soft)
7.45: Three-year-olds have secured nine of the twelve contests and though the trends are not too important this year (junior raiders account for seven of the nine declarations), the pick of this year's relevant horses will hopefully prove to be CITY CHIC, SHAFAFYA and course and distance winner DAZZLING ROSE. Only the useful Australian Queen got the better of John Gosden's debut contender at Lingfield back in February before going one better here last time out.
Favourite factor: Nine renewals had slipped by without a successful market leader being recorded before the 5/4 jolly obliged two years ago, followed up by joint favourites filling the forecast positions twelve months on. 10 of the last 11 renewals were returned at a top price of 8/1 alongside a 40/1 winner.
Record of the course winner in the fifth race:
1/1--Dazzling Rose (good)
8.20: Course and distance winner EXCELLENT GEORGE might have been well placed to 'follow up' here receiving weight from all eight rivals in a finale which should not take a great deal of winning. Both RUSSIAN REALM and course winner SOLAR FLAIR have to give the Stuart Williams representative eleven pounds which will be tough enough late into the day. Stuart could be pouring himself a congratulatory glass of something special back at the local ranch barely before the trainers of the dangers make their long way home to Lambourn (Richard Hughes) and west Sussex (William Knight) respectively.
Favourite factor: One clear market leader and two joint favourites have scored during the last 19 years, whilst nine of the 23 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions in the process. The last 15 winners have scored at 16/1-14/1-12/1-10/1-9/1-9/1-8/1-6/1-6/1-6/1-6/1-5/1-9/2-9/2***-2/1, with just the one (co) market leader being recorded.
Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:
1/2--Solar Flair (good)
1/3--Mehronissa (good to soft)
1/1--Dragon King (good)
1/3--Excellent George (good)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newmarket card on Friday:
5--Richard Hannon (7/58 at Newmarket this season - winners at 12/1-8/1-8/1-10/3-3/1**-11/4*-5/4*)
3--John Gosden (6/38 - winners at 7/1-9/2-4/1-3/1**-11/4*-5/4*)
3--John Ryan (0/8)
2--Charlie Appleby (6/22 - winners at 7/1-13/2-7/2-11/4-15/8**-1/5*)
2--Roger Charlton (2/4 - winners at 9/4 & 6/4*)
2--Ed Dunlop (1/14 - winner at 5/1)
2--Philip ('Charlie') McBride (1/5 - winner at 9/4**)
2--Stan Moore (0/1)
2--Martin Smith (0/6)
+ 32 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
55 declared runners
General overview - corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Brighton: £53.40 - 7 favourites - 4 winners & 3 unplaced
Haydock: £ £40.70 - 3 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced
Musselburgh: £220.20 - 8 favourites - 1 winner - 3 placed - 4 unplaced - Keith Dalgleish secured a 35/1 double at last year's meeting
The meeting at Wolverhampton is a new fixture on the calendar
Newmarket overview - 5 year juvenile record of represented trainers in the relevant events at 5.35 - 6.05 - 6.40
0/10--Jonathan Portman (Ashazuri)
0/7--Ismail Mohammed (Bassmah)
0/6--Martyn Meade (Bequia)
3/23--Phil McBride (Claire's Secret)
5/61--John Gosden (Elas Ruby)
0/2--Robert Cowell (Elliptical)
22/125--Richard Hannon (Heavenly Angel)
1/19--David Simcock (Island In The Sky)
5/47--Ed Dunlop (Sparkle)
22/125--Richard Hannon (Luduamf)
6/50--Mick Channon (Dewan)
0/13--Stan Moore (If I Say So & Cautious Choice)
2/6--Sir Mark Prescott (Single Estate)
0/2--Jamie Osborne (Swallow Street)
1/6--Eve Johnson Houghton (Dusty Berry)
3/32--David Elsworth (Ivor's Magic)
1/43--Michael Bell (American Pearl)
22/125--Richard Hannon (Caramura & Dick Tracy)
17/73--Charlie Appleby (Endless Gold)
5/61--John Gosden (Jupiter Light)
3/36--William Haggas (Seniority)
0/2--Roger Charlton (Zefferino)