ASCOT - DECEMBER 16
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £420.20 (6 favourites - 1 winner - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)
Friday's Placepot permutation at Ascot:
Leg 1 (12.45): 7 (Tales Of The Tweed), 8 (Topofthegame) & 3 (Criq Rock)
Leg 2 (1.20): 3 (Imperial Presence), 6 (Red Devil Star) & 4 (I’dliketheoption)
Leg 3 (1.55): 2 (Thomas Campbell), 4 (Lough Derg Spirit) & 1 (Capitaine)
Leg 4 (2.30): 1 (Politologue), 2 (Rock The Kasbah), 3 (Royal Vacation) & 4 (Captain Chaos)
Leg 5 (3.05): 6 (Fortunate George), 7 (Abbreviate) & 8 (Man From Seville)
Leg 6 (3.40): 5 (Claimantakinforgan)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.45: Nicky Henderson has saddled six winners at this corresponding (Friday) fixture during the last five years (four winning favourites – other gold medallists were returned at 11/4 & 2/1) and TALES OF THE TWEED looks to be Nicky’s leading player here via two entries. Winning form is winning form, simple as that as punters seemingly ignore to their cost all too often. Over two thirds of racehorses fail to win a race throughout their careers, a fact we should never forget. That comment brings in CRIQ ROCK with Alan King’s raider expected to figure prominently alongside the other winner in the field TOPOFTHEGAME.
Favourite factor: Five of the nine market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include four winners.
Record of the course winner in the field in the opening contest:
1/2—Criq Rock (good to soft)
1.20: Before readers take the plunge on Friday, it’s as well to note that the first two winners at the corresponding meeting last year scored at 33/1 & 20/1, whilst two other gold medallists were returned at 16/1 on the six race card. Upwards and onward in positive mode by informing that five and six-year-olds have (equally) shared eight of the last 12 renewals and the trio of relevant raiders will do for me against the other four contenders on this occasion, namely IMPERIAL PRESENCE, RED DEVIL STAR and I’DLIKETHEOPTION.
Favourite factor: Eight of the last 12 favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include four winners.
1.55: Four-year-olds have won seven of the last 11 renewals with vintage representatives at 1/5 to extend the trend before form is taken into consideration. Nicky Henderson looks to have a strong hand having declared course winner THOMAS CAMPBELL and LOUGH DERG SPIRIT. Nicky does particularly well with his hurdlers at this venue (16 winners during the last five years), though old rival Paul Nicholls saddles beaten favourite CAPITAINE with the Ditcheat team firing in plenty of winners of late.
Favourite factor: Eight of the 12 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (five winners) though that said, back to back 33/1 chances scored in 2002/3.
Record of the course winner in the field in the third race:
1/1—Thomas Campbell (good)
2.30: Six-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 3-2 via the last five renewals, a trend which has to be extended this time around as no other age groups are involved. Paul Nicholls (POLITOLOGUE) comes to the gig on a hat trick, though the terms and conditions of the contest support the chance of ROCK THE KASBAH. Further rain would aid and abet the chance of CAPTAIN CHAOS, albeit Dan Skelton’s raider might struggle to keep tabs on the other trio on better ground. Connections of four time winner ROYAL VACATION would also appreciate softer conditions. I’m going to take a chance by including all four horses in the mix, hoping for a ‘Placepot result’ to ensue.
Favourite factor: Six favourites have prevailed via the last 12 renewals during which time, the biggest priced winner was returned at 13/2 during the study period. 10 market leaders have finished in the frame to date.
Record of the course winner in the field in the fourth event:
1/1—Rock The Kasbah (soft)
3.05: One renewal can never constitute a ‘trend’ I know, though I am still aware that horses carrying a minimum weight of 11 stones filled the first six places in last year’s first running of the contest via less than 70% of the total number of runners. FORTUNATE GEORGE, ABBREVIATE and MAN FROM SEVILLE will represent yours truly in the Placepot mix accordingly. The race has no interest from a win perspective from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: Last year’s 3/1 favourite snared a toteplacepot position by finishing third behind horses sent off at 16/1 & 5/1.
3.40: Four-year-olds have won eight of the last ten contests and with vintage representatives responsible for 13/14 of the declarations, I am banking on Nicky Henderson’s CLAIMANTAKINFORGAN from a Placepot perspective, Nicky having won with four of his twelve runners in the ‘Bumper sector’ at Ascot during the last five years. I feel there is less likelihood of Nicky’s Great Pretender gelding finishing out of the frame than gambling on which horse might win the previous race on the card. For the record, Fergal O’Brien’s IMPERIAL ELOQUENCE would be the each way call in the contest.
Favourite factor: We still await the first successful market leader following 11 renewals of the toteplacepot finale, albeit seven favourites have finished in the frame.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Ascot card on Friday – followed by their five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued:
5 runners—Nicky Henderson (29/126 – loss of 33 points)
3—Kim Bailey (4.29 – Profit of 2 points)
3—Warren Gretrex (0/13)
3—Philip Hobbs (17/93 – Profit of 2 points)
3—Alan King (11/68 – Profit of 27 points)
3—Paul Nicholls (28/133 – loss of 17 points)
3—Fergal O’Brien (5/19 – Profit of 3 points)
3—Colin Tizzard (9/49 – Profit of 17 points)
2—Martin Keighley (1/10 – Profit of 5 points)
2—Tom Lacey (1/3 – Profit of 10 points)
2—Seamus Mullins (1/16—Profit of 18 points)
2—Jonjo O’Neill (3/48 – loss of 25 points)
2—Dan Skelton (4/40 – loss of 5 points)
2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (3/44 – loss of 17 points)
+ 14 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
52 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Uttoxeter: £21.50 - 7 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced
Wolverhampton: £82.50 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 3 unplaced
Newcastle (A/W) – This is a new meeting