Placepot Pointers – Friday December 2

SANDOWN - DECEMBER 2

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2015: £77.80 (7 favourites - 1 winner - 3 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (12.40): 1 (More Buck’s) & 5 (Vikekhal)

Leg 2 (1.15): 2 (Dino Velvet) & 6 (Montrachet Mix)

Leg 3 (1.50): 1 (Antarctic De Thaix), 2 (Pilgrims Bay) & 4 (Get Involved)

Leg 4 (2.25): 5 (Ballyandy), 1 (Cultivator) & 2 (Messire Des Obeaux)

Leg 5 (3.00): 2 (Gores Island) & 4 (Little Jimmy)

Leg 6 (3.35): 5 (Swincombe Toby), 6 (Major Mac) & 2 (Vivas)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.40: Seven of the ten horses to have secured toteplacepot positions thus far have carried a minimum weight of 11-4, statistics which include two (10/1 & 7/1) of the four gold medallists.  Taking all the jockey claims into account, just three of the nine declarations ‘qualify’ via the weight trend and listed in order of preference, MORE BUCK’S, VIKEKHAL and ARDKILLY WITNESS.  The first named pair are expected to do the business for us from a Placepot perspective at the very least.
Favourite factor: Three of the four favourites thus far have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include one (7/4) winner.

Record of the course winners in the opening event:

1/1—Twirling Magnet (good to soft)

1/4—Arbeo (heavy)

1.15: There have been a few short priced casualties in this event down the years (including an 8/15 chance twelve months ago) whereby steaming into Alan King’s Cheltenham faller DINO VELVET could be dangerous, albeit his proximity to the win and placed horses when coming down stands him in good stead in this grade/company.  This is one of the few venues that Dan Skelton has not yet ‘conquered’ in terms of a ratio of winners to runners as you can see for yourself at the bottom of Friday’s column.  This will stop yours truly from opposing the projected favourite with Dan’s MONTRACHET MIX, though the pair should safely see us through to the third leg of our favourite wager between them.
Favourite factor: Six favourites have won via seventeen renewals, whilst 11 of the 18 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

1.50: 11 of the 14 winners to date have carried weights of 11-3 or more, whilst five-year-olds have secured five of the last nine contests via less than 20% of the total number of runners in those races. Frustratingly, no five-year-olds have been declared but upwards and onward by suggesting that ANTARCTC DE THAIX and PILGRIMS BAY (the two horses that fit the weight trend) are selected ahead of GET INVOLVED.
Favourite factor: Four favourites have snared gold thus far, whilst 11 of the 18 jollies have reached the frame.

2.25: Some really good horses have won this race down the years including Inglis Drever, What’s Up Boys and the ill-fated Rouble to name but three fine thoroughbreds, notwithstanding Fingal Bay five years ago.  Five-year-olds have won nine of the last sixteen renewals, with CULTIVATOR (Nicky Henderson’s only raider on the card) and BALLYANDY (only NTD representative at Sandown on Friday) hailing from the vintage on this occasion with definite claims.  Alan King (Messire Des Obeaux) has saddled three of the last seven winners, having only been represented in four of those races.
Favourite factor: All 17 winners have been returned at odds of 11/2 or less, stats which includes six winning favourites.  Seven of the last twelve market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

3.00: Gary Moore enjoyed a sensational season at Sandown last year and GORES ISLAND looks to be one of Gary’s better chances on the card.  Gary might struggle to repeat his 615/1 treble at last year’s corresponding meeting, though this the ultimate ‘down to earth’ trainer in the business and any winner Gary secures is celebrated.  Others to consider include LITTLE JIMMY and GREYWELL BOY, though the ground might be lively enough for the latter named Harry Fry runner.
Favourite factor: One of the two 7/2 inaugural joint favourite last year finished in the frame without winning the respective event.

Record of the course winners in the fifth race:

1/4—Gores Island (heavy)

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2/4—Greywell Bay (2 x soft)
3.35: 13 of the last 14 winners have carried weights of 11-1 or more which reduces the field from twelve down to five, taking in a jockey claim along the way.  The pick of the quartet will hopefully prove to be SWINCOMBE TOBY, MAJOR MAC and VIVAS. The overnight reserve selection is LINGUINE.
Favourite factor: 14 of the 17 winners have been returned at odds of 9/1 or less, whilst four clear and one joint favourite have obliged for supporters of the market leaders.  11 of the 20 favourites have finished in the frame.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Sandown card on Friday – followed by their five year stats at Sandown + level stake profits/lossess accrued:

6 runners—Gary Moore (22/92 – Profit of 105 points)

3—Charlie Longsdon (4/39 – loss of 20 points)

3—Neil Mulholland (3/9 – Profit of 8 points)

3—Jonjo O’Neill (6/58 – loss of 30 points)

2—Robin Dickin (0/6)

2—Sue Gardner (0/5)

2—Philip Hobbs (12/72 – loss of 4 points)

2—Alan King (6/54 – loss of 7 points)

2—Paul Morgan (1/2 – slight profit)

2—Paul Nicholls (26/155 – loss of 16 points)

2—Dan Skelton (1/27 – loss of 20 points)

+ 23 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

52 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Exeter: £2,134.30 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 3 unplaced

Sedgefield: £115.30 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

Wolverhampton: This is a new meeting

 

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2 replies
  1. hadley nye says:

    Dear M, nice one today, I ve enjoyed reading the extra stats where you ve put more of the weight trends and age etc it lets you read inbetween the lines and by then reading form it helps. My question to you is, if i was to print out and keep your stats do they then have the same race the following year? track, distance, grade? so by keeping them you build a total guide?! I too am not very good with paperwork and not very organised, its a good job i have a good memory for horses but i miss so many in the mean time, i keep meaning to get a horse alert system for NTOs, and beaten favs etc. Also do you personally advise hedging them or sticking to placepots? I hit a bad patch at the begining of the year and even contemplated changing from form reading to trying out paddock picks as i live between chelmsford and newmarket, but this is something new, an i always did ok with using you as a horse nudger:) if you mention it and i know of it, i look it up and if it looks well treated gets my doe. Anyway, after my gentle nudge of asking you to look a wee harder, i ve manged to spank the bookies for some of my cash back and just wanted to say thanks, from one of your fans.

    • MalBoyle
      MalBoyle says:

      Thanks for this – and your generous words about my stats and facts and yes on the majority of occasions, races remain in place twelve months on whereby the same stats apply, albeit the trend might have have been strengthened or weakened by the this year’s result of course. Sorry to hear about your “bad patch” but I think you are on the right path now!

      Have a great weekend – win, lose or draw – Mal.

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