CHELTENHAM - DECEMBER 9
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £91,774.50 (UK Placepot record – All nine favourites unplaced – see breakdown of results below)
Friday's Placepot permutation at Cheltenham:
Leg 1 (12.20): 3 (Arpege D’Arlene), 4 (Laurium) & 1 (Emerging Force)
Leg 2 (12.55): 6 (Troubled Soul), 7 (Song Saa) & 2 (Yes I Did)
Leg 3 (1.30): 11 (Bally Longford), 9 (A Good Skin) & 6 (Perfect Candidate)
Leg 4 (2.05): 2 (Third Intention) & 4 (Cantlow)
Leg 5 (2.40): 4 (For Good Reason), 7 (L’Aigle Royal) & 9 (Templeross)
Leg 6 (3.15): 8 (Taurito), 11 (Air Horse One) & 7 (Eddiemaurice)
Suggested stake: 486 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
Breakdown of last year’s record Placepot dividend of £91,774.50 to a one pound stake:
First leg: One of the two 3/1 second favourites claimed a Placepot position alongside an 11/2 chance in a six runner contest
Second leg: Although two outsiders filled the forecast positions at 16/1 & 25/1, the sixth horse in the market at 9/1 reached the frame. All four 6/1 co-favourites finished out with the washing
Third leg: The 11/8 market leader finished out of the money behind horses which secured Placepot positions at 8/1, 14/1 & 9/1
Fourth leg: The first three favourites at 10/3, 4/1 & 4/1 all finished out of the ‘dead eight frame’
Fifth leg: The 11/4 second favourite led home horses at 7/1 & 28/1 with the 5/2 favourite finishing nearer last than first
Sixth leg: Regular readers will know that I have waxed lyrical about the poor performances of favourites in handicap hurdle races over a distance beyond the minimum trip. Last year’s result (33/1-66/1-16/1) guaranteed that a huge dividend was just waiting to be announced. The first six horses in the market all finished out with the washing.
Afterthought: Eight of the seventeen win and placed horses were sent off in single figures, proving that you don’t have to ‘go for broke’ to win a great dividend. Indeed - 13/17 were placed at 16/1 or less – with 16/20 horses starting at 20/1 or more finishing out of the frame
12.20: Six-year-olds have won 10 of the last 14 renewals and the trend could well be extended, with ARPEGE D’ARLENE having been given the green light by Paul Nicholls. Paul has secured four of the last eight contests which given that Paul was not represented in two of those four 'missing' years, makes the feat all the more remarkable. Paul led the way with 10 winners at the two day meeting two years back, increasing the total to eleven twelve months ago! With six-year-olds having won the last six contests, it is no surprise to see Paul sending a vintage representative on this occasion. Fellow six-year-olds LAURIUM and (possibly) EMERGING FORCE can give the selection most to do.
Favourite factor: Seven favourites have prevailed during the study period, whilst twelve market leaders have finished in the frame. Just two of the seven odds on favourites have won during the last 16 years. A total of 38 horses starting at 6/1 or more failed to win during the study period.
Record of the course winner in the opening event:
12.55: Tom George continues to have his team running in fine form whereby beaten favourite SONG SAA is given another chance in another fascinating contest on the programme. Dan Skelton (YES I DID) and Fergal O’Brien (TROUBLED SOUL) are also enjoying wonderful results in the first half of the season, with Fergal raiding Cheltenham to impressive each way effect in recent years. I never let Fergal’s runners pass me by at Prestbury Park without giving them a ‘good coat of looking at’ and TROUBLED SOUL is expected to figure prominently on behalf of the yard.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Cheltenham card.
1.30: The last 10 winners have carried a maximum burden of 11-3 whilst eight-year-olds have secured five of the last 11 renewals. Three entries possess ticks in both of the trend boxes, namely BALLY LONGFORD, Un Ace and Regal Encore. The trio are listed very much in order of preference, with Colin Tizzard’s raider BALLY LONGFORD expected to go very close. A GOOD SKIN and PERFECT CANDIDATE are others to consider from the ‘superior’ sector of the handicap.
Favourite factor: Favourites have an excellent record in this event, obliging on 23 occasions since the inaugural contest. However, the most recent successful favourite was Midnight Chase at 11/4 in 2010. That said, two of the last three favourites have secured silver medals.
Record of course winners in the third race:
1/6—Sausalito Sunrise (good to soft)
1/7—Southfield Theatre (good to soft)
2/8—Perfect Candidate (good & heavy)
1/4—A Good Skin (good)
2.05: 10 of the last 11 winners have been nine years of age or more, with eight of those gold medallists recorded in double figures. THIRD INTENTION (has his preferred ground), CANTLOW (representing the powerful Enda Bolger yard in this cross country sector) and BLESS THE WINGS are the ‘short listed’ contenders this time around.
Favourite factor: Seven of the last eight market leaders have claimed three gold and four silver medals between them alongside toteplacepot positions.
Record of course winners in the fourth event on the card:
1/9—Bless The Wings (good to soft)
2/12—Third Intention (2 x good)
2.40: Six of the last eight winners carried weights of 10-12 or more, whilst five-year-olds have landed four of the last seven contests. Two horses fit the trends in both boxes with chances from my viewpoint, namely FOR GOOD MEASURE and L’AIGLE ROYAL. TEMPLEROSS is another five-year-old with claims, though his pilot means that the Nigel Twiston-Davies representative could carry only ten stones.
Favourite factor: 11 of the last 16 winners have won at 50/1-33/1-25/1-16/1-16/1-10/1-10/1-9/1-9/1-8/1-8/1. That said five of the 18 favourites have prevailed, whilst eight market leaders finished in the frame.
Record of course winners in the fifth race:
1/2—The Eaglehaslanded (good)
1/5—Rolling Maul (soft)
3.15: 13 of the last 19 winners carried weights of 11-8 or less, whilst seven scorers were burdened with a maximum of 10-12. Five-year-olds have won seven of the last 14 renewals. Putting the stats and facts together, an overnight short list emerges containing the names of TAURITO, AIR HORSE ONE and EDDIEMAURICE. I offered four names last year which netted the 125/1 straight forecast between them!
Favourite factor: Six clear market leaders have won in recent years, accompanied by two joint favourites. 14 of the last 23 jollies have secured toteplacepot positions. A word of warning for favourite punters however, as the only odds on favourite was beaten nine years ago at 4/5.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Cheltenham card on Friday – followed by this season’s stats + profits/losses accrued:
6 runners—Colin Tizaard (3/21 – Profit of 4 points)
4—Tom George (1/9 – loss of 2 points)
4—Dan Skelton (1/8 – loss of 1 point)
4—Paul Nicholls (5/21 – loss of 4 points)
3—Nicky Henderson (2/17 – loss of 7 points)
3—Philip Hobbs (2/17 – loss of 2 points)
3—Nigel Twiston-Davies (2/20 – loss of 12 points)
3—Fergal O’Brien (2/9 – Profit of 12 points)
2—Kim Bailey (0/1)
2—Radim Bodlak (No runners)
2—Enda Bolger (No runners)
2—Harry Fry (1/6 – slight loss)
2—Martin Keighley (0/12)
2—Alan King (2/12—Profit of 1 point)
2—Jonjo O’Neill (1/16 – loss of 7 points)
2—David Pipe (2/11 – Profit of 1 point)
2—Ian Williams (0/3)
+ 25 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
73 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Bangor: £154.40 – 7 favourites – 3 winners & 4 unplaced
Doncaster: £247.30 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced
Newcastle A/W: This is a new meeting