WARWICK – FEBRUARY 24
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £120.60 (11 favourites – 3 winners – 4 placed – 4 unplaced)
Friday's Placepot permutation at Warwick:
Leg 1 (2.00): 1 (Coo Star Sivola) & 5 (Monsieur Co)
Leg 2 (2.30): 2 (Night Of Sin) & 6 (Landin)
Leg 3 (3.05): 4 (Celtic Park), 7 (How’s Vienna) & 1 (Royals And Rebels)
Leg 4 (3.35): 5 (Doitforthevillage), 6 (No Buts) & 7 (Ballygarvey)
Leg 5 (4.10): 7 (William Money) & 1 (Act Now)
Leg 6 (4.45): 5 (Future Gilded), 2 (Land Of Vic) & 8 (Definite Memories)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.00: Five-year-olds have won five of the last ten renewals and vintage representatives come to the gig on a four timer on this occasion. Only COO STAR SIVOLA represents the vintage, though the Nick Williams Assessor gelding looks to have as good a chance as any of lifting the prize. A winner of a Listed event at Cheltenham on his penultimate start, COO STAR SIVOLA ran well enough in a Grade 2 race at the same venue last time out to suggest that these rivals might be extended to beat Lizzie Kelly’s mount this time around. That said, MONSIEUR CO receives twelve pounds from the top weight taking the jockey claims into account which should bring the pair close together, notwithstanding the entry of GLOBAL STAGE who is another improving type. The remaining trio look out of their depth in a warm contest with which to open proceedings.
Favourite factor: Favourites have won five of the last eleven contests, whilst the biggest priced winner during the period was returned at 9/1. Market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science) in ten of the eleven relevant contests.
2.30: Nick Williams and Lizzie Kelly (Coo Star Sivola in the first race) team up again with obvious claims here via their recent Bangor winner NIGHT OF SIN who looks set to face similar (soft) conditions at Warwick on Friday. The stats suggest that fancied horses perform well in this event (see details below), whereby LANDIN (ran in the German Derby last year) can improve on his course effort when showing plenty of promise at the first time of asking on these shores last month.
Favourite factor: Six of the eleven renewals have been won by market leaders, whilst the last eleven favourites have secured toteplacepot positions. The previous eight winners had won at a top price of 7/1.
3.05: Seven-year-olds have secured three of the four available Placepot positions thus far and with CELTIC PARK being one of three vintage representatives this time around, the brief trend could be extended. With nothing else in the field particularly taking my eye, I’ll add the other two relevant entries into the mix, namely HOW’S VIENNA and ROYALS AND REBELS.
Favourite factor: Two of three favourites (via two renewals) have secured Placepot positions to date.
3.35: All seven toteplacepot positions have been claimed by horses carrying a maximum burden of 10-13, statistics which include the relevant winners of the three events at 7/2****, 7/2 & 7/4*. Accordingly, DOITFORTHEVILLAGE, NO BUTS and BALLYGARVEY will form my Placepot permutation in leg four of our favourite wager. The three horses are listed in order of preference.
Favourite factor: Three of the seven favourites to date have claimed Placepot positions via just three renewals.
Record of the course winners in the fourth event:
1/1—Doitforthevillage (good to soft)
4.10: Tim Vaughan has his team in good nick at present and the trainer is wasting no time in sending out Wednesday’s Ludlow winner WILLIAM MONEY with an obvious chance. ACT NOW is the obvious alternative option though as ever, we have to be on our guard from a Placepot perspective. There is every chance that Anthony Honeyball’s latter named raider would be made favourite if Tim decides to withdraw the projected market leader whereby all our eggs would be in the one basket given that scenario. That is always a dangerous stance to adopt whereby I will leave my entry until late in the day. Should WILLIAM MONEY be declared a non-runner, I would replace the ten-year-old with OVER MY HEAD.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 7/4 favourite finished out with the washing.
4.45: DEFINITE MEMORIES has been off the track a long time I grant you, though the 14/1 trade press quote would be wiped off the boards in an instant should the Venetia Williams representative strip (relatively) fit in the parade ring. I am going to gamble on that fitness by adding the ten-year-old into my Placepot equation alongside LAND OF VIC and FUTURE GILDED.
Favourite factor: Last year’s 9/2 market leader ran down the field, missing out on a Placepot position.
Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/2—Kris Spin (soft)
1/2—Muckle Roe (soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Warwick card on Friday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
4 runners—Martin Keighley (1/5 – loss of 1 point)
3—Tim Vaughan (1/13 – Profit of 38 points)
2—Kim Bailey (1/8 – Profit of 3 points)
2—Peter Bowen (1/13 – loss of 9 points)
2—Philip Hobbs (0/12)
2—Charlie Mann (0/3)
2—Seamus Mullins (1/7 – Profit of 4 points)
2—Matt Sheppard (0/5)
2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (5/22 (Profit of 3 points)
2—Nick Williams (1/7 – loss of 3 points)
2—Venetia Wiliams (1/7 – Profit of 4 points)
2—Richard Woollacott (No previous runner this season)
+ 32 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
59 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Exeter: £48.00 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced
Lingfield: £1,241.70 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 1 unplaced
Wolverhampton: £287.80 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 1 unplaced