DONCASTER – JANUARY 27
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £171.30 (6 favourites: 3 winners & 3 unplaced)
Friday's Placepot permutation at Doncaster:
Leg 1 (1.25): 5 (Midnight Cowboy), 7 (Queens Present) & 15 (Midnight Gem)
Leg 2 (1.55): 5 (Behind The Wire) & 8 (Paddy’s Field)
Leg 3 (2.25): 6 (Four Mile Beach), 4 (Calarules) & 1 (Air Of Glory)
Leg 4 (2.55): 6 (Normandy King) & 2 (Baraza)
Leg 5 (3.25): 8 (Wealth Des Mottes) & 1 (Mount Mews)
Leg 6 (3.55): 1 (Aux Ptits Sans), 2 (Kerrow) & 4 (Premier Bond)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.25: This can’t be a bad opening (qualifying) event, given that Alan King’s consistent raider MIDNIGHT COWBOY only comes in at number five in this handicap contest though whatever his weight, Tom Cannon’s mount was always going to figure in my Placepot mix in all honesty. If racing is given the green light on Friday morning, I would expect QUEENS PRESENT and MIDNIGHT GEM to give the selection most to do at the business end of the contest.
Favourite factor: All three favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions via two renewals this far, statistics which include one (7/2**) market leader.
Course winners in the first race:
1/1—Midnight Cowboy (good)
1/5—Harry Hunt (good)
1.55: BEHIND THE WIRE won with a dash of style in his second novice chase at Taunton and I cannot envisage the Tom George failing to figure prominently, providing his fencing stands up to the test again. Another younger horse in the line-up attracts the eye, with PADDY’S FIELD having contested a void race at Wincanton on Boxing day in a race which brought back memories of the ‘Foinavon National’ all those years ago.
Favourite factor: A couple of (2/1 & 9/4) favourites missed out on Placepot positions before last year’s successful market leader scored at 4/1.
Course winner in the second event on the card:
1/1—Wiesentraum (good to soft)
2.25: It would be most advantageous if all eight runners went to post here from a Placepot perspective because even though the race lacks numbers, the contest is not easy to assess. The official numbers suggest that FOUR MILE BEACH and CALARULES should go close, whilst the alternative each way option to consider is AIR OF GLORY, given the 8/1 trade press quote.
Favourite factor: Two of the three market leaders have claimed Placepot positions via gold and silver medals thus far.
2.55: Tim Vaughan has greeted plenty of big priced winners of late (this is not usually his time of year) and NORMANDY KING could be another of them in a race which should not prove difficult to win. JADE’S LEGEND is another each way type to consider, albeit a more likely winner in the field is BARAZA.
Favourite factor: All three favourites had claimed toteplacepot positions (one (7/2** winner) before last year’s renewal which witnessed the complete demise of the 7/2 market leader.
3.25: Last year’s 9/4 market leader only finished ahead of one of his seventeen rivals in the contest twelve months ago, whereby favourite backers can surely get a better run for their money on this occasion. I only remember the race in question as the beaten favourite came out in the same grade on the same type of contest on the same (good to soft) ground next time out – and won by 13 lengths! Upwards and onwards by suggesting that WEALTH DES MOTTES and MONT MEWS will figure more prominently this time around.
Favourite factor: One of the three favourites has finished in the frame to date (no winners).
3.55: Races with five declarations are the toughest to call from my perspective, writing the analysis the thick end of 24 hours before the relevant races are due to be contested. One withdrawal (when it occurs) brings a ‘win only’ scenario into account which changes the whole ethos of our favourite wager. Consequently, I will nominate AUX PTITS SANS, KERROW and PREMIER BOND against the other pair.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 11/8 favourite missed out on a toteplacepot position behind horses which filled the frame at 6/4 & 25/1. It was a similar case the following year as the 11/8 market leader finished out with the washing behind horses that did the buisness from a Placepot perspective at 9/2 & 4/1. Last year’s event made up for losses to a fashion when the 7/4 jolly obliged.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Doncaster card on Friday – followed by their five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued:
5 runners—Tom Weston (0/1)
3—Peter Bowen (0/29)
3—Nicky Henderson (33/90 – Profit of 41 points)
3—Graeme McPherson (6/41 – Profit of 5 points)
3—Paul Nicholls (17/64 – loss of 14 points)
2—David Dennis (2/24 – loss of 17 points)
2—Brian Ellison (5/27 – loss of 9 points)
2—Tom George (7/48 – Profit of 43 points)
2—Noel Glynn (No runners)
2—Malcolm Jefferson (4/31 – loss of 11 points)
2—Alan King (21/102 – Profit of 5 points)
2—Charlie Longsdon (6/61 – loss of 11 points)
2—Jonjo O’Neill (7/82 – loss of 31 points)
2—Ben Pauling (7/25 – Profit of 14 points)
2—Katy Price (No runners)
2—Tim Vaughan (0/31)
2—Mark Walford (0/12)
2—Ian Williams (5/49 – loss of 16 points)
+ 29 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
72 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Huntingdon: £200.70 – 7 favourites – 3 winners & 4 unplaced
Lingfield: £124.10 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced
There was no meeting at Newcastle last year
Taunton has been added to Friday’s fixtures during the last week because of the recent weather