Placepot Pointers

Placepot Pointers – Friday July 14

NEWMARKET (JULY COURSE) - JULY 14

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £4,871.50 (6 favourites - No winners - 1 placed - 5 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 4 (Fawaareq), 8 (Parfait), 7 (Swift Approval) & 17 (Ripoli)

Leg 2 (2.25): 2 (Clemmie) & 8 (Out Of The Flames)

Leg 3 (3.00): 4 (Titi Makfi), 7 (Monticello) & 9 (Oasis Charm)

Leg 4 (3.35): 7 (Wuheida) & 5 (Roly Poly)

Leg 5 (4.10): 1 (Gold Town), 2 (Starlight Mystery), 11 (Merchant Marine) & 9 (Arabian Jazz)

Leg 6 (4.45): 1 (Being There) & 10 (Rastrelli)

Suggested stake: 384 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.50: Course winners are few and far between in the other races at Newmarket today but three of the six relevant runners here are worth a second glance.  PARFAIT is the most obvious contender I guess for John Gosden, though all eight of his runners were beaten at the venue yesterday on a day in which the trainer has done well in recent years.  PARFAIT cannot be left out of the Placepot mix, though I am wondering if any value for money long since disappeared relating to William Buick’s mount.  FAWEEREQ boasts a 2/2 ratio and having won under opposite conditions whereby connections have no worries on account of the ground.  SWIFT APPROVAL beat just nine rivals in the contest last year when trained by Kevin Ryan, though he has yet to prove himself for the Stuart Williams team.  That said, Stuart saddled a winner here yesterday and the trainer has never been frightened of running horses that are seemingly up against superior rivals.  Running off the same mark as last year, SWIFT APPROVAL is arguably worth a small saver at around the 20/1 mark.  There will be worse outsiders on the card than RIPOLI I’ll wager, even though Sylvester Kirk’s four time A/W winner has yet to open his account on turf.  The strength of his three Kempton wins make the current 25/1 mark look attractive from an each way perspective.

Favourite factor: One of the two favourites to date won its respective contest at 5/1 before last year’s 11/4 market leader finished out with the washing.

Course winners in the opening event:

1/1—Makzeem (good to soft)

2/2—Fawaareq (good to firm & soft)

1/4—Gunmetal (good to soft)

1/1—Swift Approval (good to firm)

1/1—Parfait (good)

2/5—Majestic Moon (2 x good to firm)

 

2.25: In a race which I will always refer to as the ‘Cherry Hinton’ (apologies in place to the Duchess of Cambridge) I can impart news that ‘Team Hannon‘ is the only training establishment to have saddled three winners of this event during the last thirteen years and saddling the Queen Mary bronze medallist OUT OF THE FLAMES gives Richard a sporting chance of landing another victory on behalf of the stable.  Time could prove that finishing three lengths adrift of Heartache at Royal Ascot was a fine effort.  William Buick was quoted as saying that Heartache was a ‘class apart’ from the other juvenile winners at Ascot this year and OUT OF THE FLAMES could add weight to William’s argument.  CLEMMIE disappointed at Ascot a few weeks back but came bouncing back to form via a Group 3 victory and this one grade hike might not be beyond Aidan O’Brien’s Galileo filly.  Roly Poly took a similar route to the circle reserved for the winner in last year’s race for the yard and lightning could strike twice this afternoon to leave Irish eyes smiling.

Favourite factor:  Eight of the last seventeen favourites have won whilst 15/22 market leaders secured toteplacepot positions in the process.

 

3.00: Mark Johnston has won the last four renewals and in TITI MAKFI and MONTCELLO, Mark has definite claims of saddling his sixth winner of the race within the last 11 years.  The pair are listed in order of preference, though there may not be a great deal of daylight between the stable companions at the jamstick.  If Mark is to be denied another success, OASIS CHARM could prove to be the joker in the pack with Charlie Appleby’s team in great form just now.  That said, when are Charlie’s runners anything but prominent on the racecourse?  The weight concession is against Leshlaa who is overlooked accordingly, though I still expect to Godolphin raider to run well.

Favourite factor: 10 renewals have come and gone since the last favourite obliged.  Six of the last 10 gold medallists were returned at double figure prices, ranging between 11/1 and 25/1.

 

3.35: Three-year-olds have won 10 of the last 20 renewals of this Group 1 event and the junior course winners look to have a firm grip on the contest this time around.  ROLY POLY is as tough as teak and not many fillies would want to get into street battle with Aidan O’Brien’s raider who won the ‘Duchess Of Cambridge’ on the corresponding card twelve months ago.  That said, Charlie Appleby’s Dubawi filly WUHEIDA could yet be anything, given that she is a winner of her two races to date, her second success coming in the Group 1 ‘Marcel Boussac’ last back end.  If she can turn Roly Poly over here on her seasonal debut, the sky could literally be the limit for William Buick’s mount.

Favourite factor:  Five clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the last eighteen years, whilst 11/18 jollies have claimed toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the Falmouth Stakes:

1/1—Roly Poly (good to firm)

1/1—Wuheida (good to firm)

 

4.10: Six of the last ten winners have carried a maximum burden of nine stones in this two-year-old handicap contest, albeit I am little hesitant in dismissing the chances of GOLD TOWN and SRTARLIGHT MYSTERY from the 'inferior' sector of the weights, especially as more recent renewals have gone the way of horses higher up the handicap.  Indeed, three of the last four winners have carried 9-5 or more which supports my argument in nominating the top pair in my Placepot mix.  Ralph Beckett saddled last year’s winner and his Epaulette colt MERCHANT MARINE in not without place claims, arguably alongside ARABIAN JAZZ.

Favourite factor:  Eight of the 14 market leaders have reached the frame (six winners) in the penultimate leg of our favourite wager.  Although market leaders have won six of the twelve renewals to date, five of the last ten gold medallists were returned at 16/1-12/1-8/1-8/1-11/2.

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4.45:  Six of the last 13 renewals have fallen the way of market leaders in a race which has produced plenty of decent winners in the past.  From a Placepot perspective, Charlie Appleby looks to have this contested all wrapped with a pretty bow given that BEING THERE will surely take a great deal of kicking out of the frame following a highly promising debut.  Add his expensive breeze-up newcomer RASTRELLI into the equation and we should be able to spend the rest of the afternoon in the bar.  Perhaps later in the day you could look up the film Being There and finish off Friday by watching the truly superb performance of Peter Sellers in a captivating movie (imo).

Favourite factor:  Eight clear favourites and one joint favourite have won during the study period.  13/24 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.  Horses starting at 16/1 or more have claimed just eight Placepot positions via 116 representatives during the study period.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newmarket card on Friday + ‘scoresheet’ from Day 1 at Newmarket July meeting!

7 runners—Charlie Appleby (2/6 on the 1st day at 7/2 & 9/2 = 23/1 double)

6—Richard Hannon (0/6)

4—Richard Fahey (0/5)

4—Charlie Hills (0/2)

4—Mark Johnston (1/4 - winner at 8/1)

3—John Gosden (0/8)

3—John Quinn (No runners yesterday)

3—Saeed Bin Suroor (0/1)

3—Stuart Williams (winner at 7/1)

2—Ralph Beckett (No runners yesterday)

2—Michael Bell (0/1)

2—Simon Crisford (No runners yesterday)

2—Luca Cumani (No runners yesterday)

2—Robert Cowell (0/1)

2—Jim Goldie (No runners yesterday)

2—William Haggas (No runners yesterday)

2—Stan Moore (No runners yesterday)

2—Jeremy Noseda (No runners yesterday)

2—Aidan O’Brien (0/2)

2—Hugo Palmer (0/3)

2—Ian Williams (No winners yesterday)

1 runner today—Andrew Balding (1/2 yesterday - winner at 7/1)

1 runner today—Brian Meehan (1/2 yesterday – winner at 7/2

+ 25 different other trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

88 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ascot: £152.60 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Chepstow: £4,779.00 – 7 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 5 unplaced

Musselburgh: £276.30 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

York: £573.30 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

 

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