ASCOT - JULY 22
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £165.50 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)
Friday's Placepot permutation at Ascot:
Leg 1 (1.50): 6 (Snow Squaw), 3 (Kazimiera) & 1 (Horseplay)
Leg 2 (2.20): 4 (Rivet), 2 (Eqtiraan) & 6 (Well Done)
Leg 3 (2.55): 10 (Sea Of Heaven) & 11 (Sisyphus)
Leg 4 (3.30): 7 (Mix And Mingle) & 6 (Delve)
Leg 5 (4.05): 2 (Bermondsey) & 1 (Pinzolo)
Leg 6 (4.35): 9 (Royal Birth), 8 (Shamshon) & 15 (Alpha Delphini)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.50: SNOW SQUAW was put up by yours truly as an outsider to consider before David Elsowrth's raider was backed from 25/1 to 11/2 at Newmarket on debut, when a tardy start scuppered any hope of a successful punt being landed. She must be worth another chance however, representing connections that know a good filly when they see one. The fact that David's March foal has been entered here suggests that the 25/1 gamble could well have succeeded if she had broken on terms from the boxes. That said, HORSEPLAY is the subject of good reports, whilst KAZIMEIRA represents Charlie Appleby who can do little wrong according to yours truly right now.
Favourite factor: The four favourites thus far have secured two gold medals and one of each of the other colours, securing toteplacepot positions in the process.
2.20: You could argue that good horses, rather than excellent thoroughbreds have won this event during the last decade, the pick of which was probably Moohaajim in 2012. Hopefully, RIVET, EQTIRAAN and WELL DONE will at least equal the exploits of the Group 2 winner in time. That said, jungle drums are conspicuous by their absence regarding this sextet at the time of writing, whereby the trio are only offered in tentative fashion.
Favourite factor: Although winning favourites are conspicuous by their absence during the last 15 years, the relevant winners ranged in odds between 5/2 and 10/1.
2.55: Three-year-olds have won five of the last ten renewals of this Class 2 (Brown Jack) handicap, yet no vintage representatives have turned up for the gig this time around. Four-year-olds have secured three of the last five renewals whereby the two relevant entries SEA OF HEAVEN and SISYPHUS are the first names on the team sheet, the duo being listed in order of preference. BOITE was a really decent Goodwood winner for me last time out though the six-year-old has not recorded successive victories together to date. Others to consider include GALIZZI and Iain Jardine's northern raider NAKEETA.
Favourite factor: 12 of the last 13 winners of the ‘Brown Jack’ have been returned at odds of 8/1 or less, statistics which include six successful favourites.
Record of the course winner in the third race:
1/2--All Talk N No Do (good to firm)
3.30: Three-year-olds have now secured 10 of the last 14 renewals, whilst four-year-olds have secured three of the last five contests. MIX AND MINGLE looks best suited by the terms and conditions this time around, whilst DELVE could emerge as the each way alternative option. MIX AND MINGLE was withdrawn from a better race recently, whilst DELVE is something of a dark horse given her unknown potential at this stage of her career. The overnight reserve nomination is awarded to IRISH ROOKIE.
Favourite factor: Seven favourites have prevailed during the last 14 years, whilst 12 of the 14 winners were sent off at 11/2 or less.
Record of the course winner in the fourth contest:
2/2--Light And Shade (good to firm & good to soft)
4.05: Luca Cumani has his team in better form (which would not be difficult in a quiet year for the trainer) whereby the chance of BERMONDSEY is respected in this company/grade. His rivals all have questions of one type or another to answer which makes Luca's improving Galileo representative one of the better bets on the card from my viewpoint. PINZOLO is marginally preferred as the main threat ahead of PLUTOCRACY.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Ascot card.
4.35: Five-year-olds secured the first five places in the 2012 contest before vintage representatives claimed a 1-2-4 two years ago at odds of 10/1-7/1**-12/1, five-year-olds having won four of the last six previous renewals before 2015 when the vintage was not represented. Only two five-year-olds (33/1 & 25/1 chances) lined up on another occasion, whereby three of this year's four relevant raiders will fill my Placepot mix, namely ROYAL BIRTH, SHAMSHON and ALPHA DELPHINI. Out of interest, the other five-year-old in the field is Musical Comedy.
Favourite factor: The previous 11 favourites had all been beaten (winners at 66/1-50/1-20/1-20/1-16/1-14/1-10/1-9/1-8/1-7/1-13/2) before a successful 4/1 market leader prevailed five years ago. The race reverted to type in 2012 when a 14/1 chance led home horses sent off at 9/1 and 33/1, whilst the last three winners have scored at 14/1-10/1-5/1. 14 of the last 17 market leaders have finished out of the frame.
Record of course winners in the toteplacepot finale:
3/16--Medicean Man (3 x good)
1/2--Dutch Masterpiece (good)
1/7--Desert Law (good to firm)
1/1--Royal Birth (good to firm)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Ascot card on Friday:
4--Robert Cowell (2/7 at Ascot this season - winners at 10/1 & 8/1)
4--William Haggas (1/21 - winner at 7/2*)
3--Charlie Appleby (2/24 - winners at 20/1 & 11/2)
3--Richard Hannon (3/54 - winners at 3/1-3/1-11/4)
3--Mark Johnston (2/32 - winners at 11/4* & 15/8*)
2--Andrew Balding (0/15)
2--David Barron (0/4)
2--Simon Crisford (0/4)
2--David Evans (0/12)
2--John Gallagher (0/5)
2--Jeremy Gask (0/2)
2--Martyn Meade (0/2)
2--Gary Moore (0/2)
2--Mike Murphy (0/1)
2--Sir Mark Prescott (0/3)
2--James Tate (1/2 - winner at 11/2)
+ 32 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
71 declared runners
General overview - corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Chepstow: £27.20 - 6 favourites - 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced
Newmarket (July): £69.30 - 7 favourites - 4 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced
Thirsk: £212.90 - 9 favourites - 1 winner - 2 placed - 6 unplaced
Uttoxeter: £58.60 - 6 favourites - 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced
York: £335.40 - 6 favourites - No winners - 3 placed - 3 unplaced
Ascot overview - 5 year juvenile record of represented trainers in the relevant events at 1.50 & 2.20:
0/18--Andrew Balding (Horseplay)
0/3--John Gallagher (Junoesque)
3/15--Charlie Appleby (Kazimiera)
0/13--David Evans (OK By Me)
0/4--Simon Crisford (Sitaarah)
0/10--David Elsworth (Snow Squaw)
11/75--Richard Hannon (Soldiers Girl)
0/3---Martyn Meade (Calidration)
11/75--Richard Hannon (Eqtiraan)
0/18--Andrew Balding (Galactic Prince)
3/33--William Haggas (Rivet)
5/62--Mark Johnston (Star Of The East)
0/4--Simon Crisford (Well Done)