ASCOT - JULY 28
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £56.90 (6 favourites - 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)
Friday's Placepot permutation at Ascot:
Leg 1 (1.40): 1 (Expressly), 11 (Stream Song) & 4 (Indicia)
Leg 2 (2.10): 6 (Mythical Magic) & 8 (Strategist)
Leg 3 (2.45): 7 (Mister Manduro) & 8 (UAE King)
Leg 4 (3.20): 6 (Mittens), 3 (Nathra) & 7 (On Her Toes)
Leg 5 (3.55): 4 (Red Galileo), 6 (Tawddea) & 1 (Galapiat)
Leg 6 (4.25): 9 (Soie D’Leau), 3 (Yalta), 10 Shamshon) & 11 (Coofitch)
Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.40: INDICIA will be the first name on many lips this morning, though bookmakers have made wonderful profits down the years when punters plunge on juveniles who have finished second on their debuts, only to get turned over as favourites next time out. With EXPRESSIY and (arguably) JOUSY having also been declared however, it is debatable if INDICIA will be returned as the market leader in a typically warm Ascot two-year-old contest. STREAM SONG also catches the eye at an each way price at the foot of the list in the familiar George Strawbridge (white with a green hoop) colours.
Favourite factor: This is a new race ion the Ascot card via the ‘novice status’ of races brought in by the BHA around 18 months ago.
2.10: Richard Hannon comes to the gig on a hat trick and given the amount of juveniles in his yard to choose from, we can suppose that MAGHWEER is among the top ranked two-year-old at base camp this season. I’ve had to stop in my tracks as Richard’s raider has been scratched from the contest as I write. No doubt Maghweer is one to keep an eye on. Upwards and onward by suggesting that MYTHICAL MAGIC and STRATEGIST are now probably the safest options from a Placepot viewpoint given that we have a ‘short field’ to assess. New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way & Placepot perspectives.
Favourite factor: Last year’s wording before the 5/2 favourite obliged; Although winning favourites are conspicuous by their absence during the last 15 years, the relevant winners ranged in odds between 5/2 and 10/1.
2.45: Three-year-olds have won five of the last eleven renewals of this Class 2 (Brown Jack) handicap, yet no vintage representatives turned up for the gig last year! Thankfully Roger Varian (UAE KING) and Mark Johnston (MISTER MANDURO) are wise to the stats this time around and this pair are expected to duel all the way to the line from my viewpoint. Mark Johnston has saddled no less than ten winners at this two day fixture during the last five years whereby from a value for money perspective at least, I’m taking MISTER MANDURO to marginally win the day.
Favourite factor: 13 of the last 14 winners of the ‘Brown Jack’ have been returned at odds of 8/1 or less, statistics which include seven successful favourites.
3.20: Three-year-olds have now secured 11 of the last 15 renewals, whilst four-year-olds have secured three of the last six contests. Little wonder then that two of the three-year-olds have attract plenty of each way support overnight, namely the progressive pair MITTENS and ON HER TOES. Both horses are guaranteed places in my Placepot mix, though the softened ground might have gone against Tisbutadream who would otherwise have been added into the mix. John Gosden’s NATHRA is elevated into the equation accordingly. A winner on soft and good to soft ground on both of her previous seasonal debut assignments, Frankie’s mount would take the beating if cherry ripe for the task in hand.
Favourite factor: Seven favourites have prevailed during the last 15 years, whilst 12 of the 15 winners were sent off at 11/2 or less.
Course winners in the fourth event:
1/2—Tisbutadream (good to firm)
3.55: I can report overnight win and place money for RED GALILEO which does not come as a great surprise with the Saeed Bin Suroor stable having hit top form recently, with nine of their last 21 runners having been saddled to winning effect. Others for the melting pot include GALAPIAT and TAWDEEA, given that any value in Appeared has long since disappeared, if you’ll pardon the play on words.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 10/11 market finished last of six runners (beaten 23 lengths), with favourite backers hoping for a distinctly better run for their money on this occasion.
Course winners in the fifth contest on the card:
1/2—Appeared (good to firm)
1/3—King Bolete (goot to fim)
1/4—Sennockian Star (good)
4.25: Five-year-olds secured the first five places in the 2012 contest before vintage representatives claimed a 1-2-4 three years ago at odds of 10/1-7/1**-12/1, five-year-olds having won four of the last six previous renewals before 2015 when the vintage was not represented. Only two five-year-olds (33/1 & 25/1 chances) lined up on another occasion, before vintage representatives landed a 1-3-4 twelve months ago. Unbelievably (I don’t believe it!) just one relevant horse has been declared this time around, with SOIE D’LEAU being the first name on the team sheet. Ryan Moore boasts a 33% strike rate for Mark Johnston this season which can only aid and abet the cause of YALTA. The recent Newmarket winner SHAMSHON finished fourth last year off a six pound higher mark, whilst COOLFITCH cannot be left out of the equations with conditions to suit.
Favourite factor: The previous 11 favourites had all been beaten (winners at 66/1-50/1-20/1-20/1-16/1-14/1-10/1-9/1-8/1-7/1-13/2) before a successful 4/1 market leader prevailed six years ago. The race reverted to type in 2012 when a 14/1 chance led home horses sent off at 9/1 and 33/1, whilst the last four winners have scored at 14/1-10/1-8/1-5/1. 14 of the last 18 market leaders have finished out of the frame.
Course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/13—Jack Dexter (soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Ascot card on Friday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
5 runners—Mark Johnston (3/30 – loss of 8 points)
4—David Elsworth (1/8 – Profit of 4 points)
4—William Haggas (4/29 – loss of 12 points)
4—Roger Varian (2/26 – loss of 16 points)
3—John Gosden (2/38 – loss of 21 points)
3—Richard Hannon (4/40 – Profit of 4 points)
3—Sir Michael Stoute (2/17 – loss of 10 points)
2—Charlie Appleby (4/28 – Profit of 15 points)
2—Andrew Balding (0/13)
2—Robert Cowell (0/7)
2—Tim Easterby (1/2 – Profit of 24 points)
2—Gay Kelleway (0/5)
2—William Knight (No previous runners)
2—David O’Meara (1/19 – Profit of 7 points)
2—Hugo Palmer (1/9 – loss of 6 points)
2—Derek Shaw (No Previous runners)
+ 28 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
72 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Chepstow: £306.20 – 7 Favourites – 3 winners & 4 unplaced
Newmarket: £39.50 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced
Thirsk: £24.30 – 6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced
York: £65.60 – 8 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 2 unplced
Uttoxeter: £426.40 – 7 favourites – 3 winners & 4 unplaced