GOODWOOD - JULY 29
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £146.90 (7 favourites - 1 winner - 4 placed - 2 unplaced)
Friday's Placepot permutation at Goodwood:
Leg 1 (2.00): 8 (Loving Things), 6 (Mount Logan) & 4 (Kings Fete)
Leg 2 (2.35): 7 (Thikriyaat) & 4 (Emotionless)
Leg 3 (3.10): 18 (Can't Change It), 13 (One Word More) & 9 (Celestial Path)
Leg 4 (3.45): 12 (Divine), 5 (Jungle Cat) & 1 (Cotai Glory)
Leg 5 (4.20): 7 (Final Reckoning), 9 (Zamjar) & 6 (Naafer)
Leg 6 (4.55): 11 (Mise End Rose), 7 (Alamode) & 8 (Al Jazi)
Suggested stake: 486 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Goodwood - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.00: Four-year-olds have won nine of the last fifteen renewals, whilst securing 14 of the last 25 available toteplacepot positions. Four-year-olds are 3/1 to extend their good run from a win perspective, via two representatives on this occasion. Luca Cumani has secured three of the last nine renewals with the trainer saddling four-year-old LOVING THINGS holding a (seemingly) decent chance this time around. That said, MOUNT LOGAN puts his unbeaten Goodwood record (see stats below) on the line, which probably means that Luca's Pivotal filly will have anything but an easy task, notwithstanding the likely challenge of KINGS FETE at the business end of proceedings.
Favourite factor: Six favourites have won during the last nineteen years, whilst 11 of the 21 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.
Record of course winners in the opening event:
3/3--Mount Logan (2 x good & 1 x good to soft)
2.35: 'Team Hannon' has landed three successes during the last thirteen years, though Richard's raider LIGHT UP OUR WORLD looks up against it here with the likes of EMOTIONLESS (only a 10/1 chance in a Group 1 event on seasonal debut at Royal Ascot) and THIKRIYAAT having been declared. That said, LIGHT UP OUR WORLD was ignored last time at 20/1 when scoring, though soft ground was in evidence on that occasion. THIKTRIYAAT could prove to be the pick of Sir Michael Stoute's pair, given that Michael's Azamour gelding only found Ribchester too good last time out with that form being franked in no uncertain terms here at Goodwood earlier in the week. The fact that Azamour stock tend to improve with age is another positive factor.
Favourite factor: 11 of the last 21 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three winners.
3.10: Mark Johnston has saddled three of the last five winners of the contest when represented. I have included the stats for those of you who keep records, albeit Mark is not represented this time around. Upwards and onward in positive mode by informing that eight winners during the the last eleven years have carried a maximum burden of 8-13. Seven runners 'qualify' on this occasion (as opposed to only two twelve months ago) whereby regular readers will rightly presume that my selection will hail from down towards the bottom of the handicap, namely CAN'T CHANCE IT you will appreciate Thursday rain. Perm any three from four for the Placepot permutation via ONE WORD MORE, CELESTIAL PATH and OUTLAW COUNTRY.
Favourite factor: Two favourites have prevailed in the last nineteen years, whilst ten market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.
Record of course winners in the third contest on the card:
1/5--Belgian Bill (good to firm)
1/4--Can't Change It (good)
1/5--Red Avenger (good to firm)
3.45: Four and five-year-olds had (equally) shared six of the last 13 renewals of this Group 2 sprint contest before last year when another five-year-old prevailed. It therefore defies belief that just one vintage representative has been declared this time around, namely DIVINE from Mick Channon's yard which has already bagged a big priced winner this week. JUNGLE CAT and COTAI GLORY might lead the four-year-olds home, whilst PEARL SECRET could still have another decent prize in him.
Favourite factor: Six favourites have scored during the last nineteen years, whilst eleven market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.
Record of course winners in the fourth race:
1/2--Cotai Glory (good to firm)
1/2--Jungle Cat (good)
1/2--Muthmir (good to firm)
1/3--Take Cover (good to firm)
4.20: The last twelve winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-3, statistics which eliminates the top four horses in the handicap if you believe in the trends. The pick of the remaining fourteen contenders could prove to be recent winners FINAL RECKONING, ZAMJAR and NAAFER, though luck in running will inevitably play a part in the eventual result. I cannot envisage all three of these improving types to finish out of the frame though if you are not convinced, you might consider NOTALOT outrunning his odds towards the bottom of the weights.
Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders, one co and one joint favourite have scored during the study period, whilst 11 of the last 19 jollies have reached the frame. Seven of the last sixteen winners of this nursery event have scored at 25/1--20/1--20/1--16/1--12/1--10/1--10/1.
4.55: Three-year-olds have won 13 of the last 19 renewals and vintage representatives are 5/7 to extend the good run before the form book is consulted, as long as non runners fail to rear their ugly heads. The pick of the relevant entries include MISE EN ROSE, ALAMODE and AL JAZI. If the vintage trend is to be breached in the toteplacepot finale, CROWNING GLORY is the likely spoiler from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: Five favourites have won during the last nineteen years, whilst 12 of the 20 market leaders throughout the study period claimed toteplacepot positions.
Record of the course winner in the 'lucky last':
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Goodwood card on Friday (stats quoted before Thursday's sport was contested):
6--Charlie Appleby (5/13 at Goodwood this season - winners at 5/1-9/2-4/1-11/4-13/8*)
6--Mark Johnston (5/30 - winners at 17/2-8/1-8/1-7/1-5/2)
5--William Haggas (0/6)
5--Saeed Bin Suroor (1/8 - winner at 11/2)
4--Mick Channon (4/25 - winners at 16/1-7/2*-5/2*9/4*)
4--Richard Fahey (1/10 - winner at 6/1)
4--Richard Hannon (5/38 - winners at 16/1-7/1-9/2*-9/2-3/1)
3--Jeremy Noseda (---)
3--David Simcock (3/11 - winners at 10/1-7/1-13/8)
3--Sir Michael Stoute (4/13 - winners at 8/1-9/2-2/1*-13/8*)
2--Groge Baker (0/14)
2--Marco Botti (---)
2--Robert Cowell (1/7 - winner at 16/1)
2--David Evans (0/13)
2--Charlie Hills (1/11 winner at 9/4*)
2--Eve Johnson Houghton (0/7)
2--Gary Moore (1/8 - winner at 12/1)
2--Hugo Palmer (0/8)
2--Amanda Perrett (0/20)
2--Sir Mark Prescott (0/2)
2--Francois Rohaut (---)
+ 39 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
104 declared runners
General overview - corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Bangor: £112.00 - 6 favourites - 1 winner - 2 placed - 3 unplaced
Bath: £256.50 - 7 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced
Musselburgh: £357.40 - 7 favourites - 2 winners & 5 unplaced
Newmarket (July): £3,272.20 - 8 favourites - 1 winner - 3 placed - 4 unplaced
Thirsk: £237.70 - 5 favourites - 4 winners - 1 placed -1 non runner
Goodwood overview - 5 year juvenile record of represented trainers in the relevant event at 4.20 - stats up to and including Wednesday's 27th July:
14/70--Mark Johnston (Mailshot - Rusumaat - Dusker)
4/15--Saeed Bin Suroor (Top Score)
2/4--Jeremy Noseda (Monks Stand)
2/17--Eve Johnson Houghton (Diable D'or)
2/10--William Haggas (Naafer)
5/23--Charlie Appleby (Final Reckoning)
0/2--James Given (Prince Of Cool)
3/11--Ed Dunlop (Zamjar)
3/30--Richard Fahey (Scofflaw)
No runners--John Quinn (Naples Bay)
9/87--Mick Channon (Sayesse)
2/8--Hugo Palmer (Aventius)
0/3--Roger Teal (High Acclaim)
0/2--Jim Boyle (El Torito)
1/16--Michael Bell (Notalot)
13/95--Richard Hannon (Buskin River)