Placepot Pointers

Placepot Pointers – Friday July 7

SANDOWN - JULY 7

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £44.00 (6 favourites: 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 3 (Seeking Magic), 8 (Zac Brown) & 10 (Fethiye Boy)

Leg 2 (2.20): 1 (Havana Grey), 5 (Roussel) & 9 (Rebel Assault)

Leg 3 (2.50): 7 (Master Of Wine) & 9 (Petrus)

Leg 4 (3.25): 2 (Fanciful Angel), 3 (Kidmenever) & 1 (Ayrad)

Leg 5 (4.00): 5 (Euginio), 9 (Beardwood) & 1 (Berkshire)

Leg 6 (4.30): 7 (Uae King) & 3 (Machine Learner)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.50: 14 of the last 18 winners have carried weights of 9-2 or less, whereby this year’s three qualifiers (one via a claim) are all under consideration, with SEEKING MAGIC, ZAC BROWN and FETHIYE BOY being listed in order of overnight preference. The only problem with including ZAC BROWN into the Placepot mix is the dreadful record of favourites in this event which you can see below.  That said, there is overnight money for Queen In Waiting whereby ‘Zac’ might be displaced as the market leader before flag fall.

Favourite factor: 23 favourites (including joint and co market leaders) have gone to post in the last 20 years and just three favourites have reached the frame during the period, with no winners having been recorded.

Record of course winners in the opening event:

1/2—Shamshon (good to firm)

1/1—Seve (good)

 

2.20: Four of the last five winners have contested Royal Ascot‘s Norfolk Stakes on their previous starts which puts HAVANA GREY straight into the mix.  Mark Johnston has snared the last two renewals of the Dragon Stakes whereby REBEL ASSAULT is also added into the equation alongside the ‘Windsor Castle’ runner up ROUSSEL (wide draw to overcome) in a fascinating contest.  Karl Burke (HAVANA GREY) could hardly be described as being in blinding form though that said, Karl’s last two winners where gained when he and his team travelled south to snare the swag.

Favourite factor:  12 of the last 24 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include five winners.

Record of course winners in the second race:

1/1—Havana Grey (good to firm)

 

2.50: The powers that be have this listed down as a new race now that the prefix ‘Novice’ has been applied, regulations having been set in stone eighteen months ago.  I have included the favourite stats below in case you wanted to know how things were working our between bookmaker and punter in recent years.  The fact that this is yet another race which has been changed ‘against the punter’ (given half decent results for players rather than layers) in recent years is frustrating.  Upwards and onward by suggesting that horses towards the top of the betting should still run well hopefully, namely MASTER OF WINE (I was in the trade for five years in a former life) and PETRUS.  I managed off licenses for Thresher (part of the Whitbread chain) and we were told to drink as many of the wines that we stocked as possible in order that we could pass on our findings to our clients.  I took the ‘command’ seriously and got through the task in hand in no time at all!

Favourite factor:  Eight favourites had won during the last 20 years (including eight of the last 16), whilst 12 market leaders had secured toteplacepot positions in the process.  This stat will be erased for next year’s renewal of this ‘new race’.

 

3.25: Five-year-olds have won five of the last eight renewals and with FANCIFUL ANGEL being this year’s lone vintage representative, Marco Botti’s Dark Angel gelding gets the vote ahead of last year’s winner AYRAD.  That said, Roger Charlton has his team in rude health (Roger boasts a 36% strike rate via his last 12 winners) whereby the defending champion will not go down without a fight I’ll wager.  KIDMENEVER is the other potential winner in the field according to the gospel of yours truly.

Favourite factor:  10 of the 15 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include five of the last eight winners.  The last 13 gold medallists have scored at odds of 7/1 or less.

Record of course winners in the fourth race:

1/3—Ayrad (good to soft)

1/1—Jake’s Hill (good)

 

4.00: Three-year-olds have won four of the last seven renewals, whilst securing seven victories during the last 12 years.  The stat has (seemingly) only been picked up by Richard Hannon) as his Fastnet Rock raider EUGINIO is the lone junior representative in the line-up.  Andrea Atzeni’s mount does not appear to take a lot of racing though that said, he has run well in the past after a lengthy break (79 days in this instance) whereby Richard (yet to saddle the winner of this event) could put a tick against another race on the calendar.  Connections might expect most resistance to emerge from BEARDWOOD at the business end of the contest, though BERKSHIRE can rarely be discounted in this grade/company.

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Favourite factor: Nine favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the last 20 years, whilst four of the last 10 contests have been claimed by market leaders of one description or another.

Record of course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

1/1—Mutarakez (good)

 

4.30: Seven of the last fifteen winners have carried weights of 9-7 or more, whilst four-year-olds have won four of the last six renewals.  The stats insist that I include course and distance winner MACHINE LEARNER in the mix, though with Roger Varian having saddled eight of his last ten runners to winning effect, UAE KING is nominated from a win perspective.

Favourite factor:  Seven of the 15 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions thus far, though just three market leaders have claimed the gold medal during the study period.  That said, 11 of the last 13 winners of the toteplacepot finale have scored at a top price of 6/1.

Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Machine Learner (good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Sandown card on Friday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

4 runners—Mark Johnston (4/11 – Profit of 10 points)

4—Brian Meehan (0/2)

3—Andrew Balding (0/6)

3—Richard Hannon (3/17 – Loss of 1 point)

2—Charlie Appleby (0/6)

2—Jim Boyle (0/1)

2—Paul Cole (No previous runners this season)

2—Clive Cox (2/10 – Profit of 16 points)

2—Ed Dunlop (0/4)

2—Charlie Hills (1/10 – Profit of 2 points)

2—Roger Varian (4/6 – Profit of 5 points)

2—Stuart Williams (0/4)

+ 29 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

59 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Beverley: £577.20 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Doncaster: £60.30 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Haydock: £51.50 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Newton Abbot: £126.60 – 8 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

Chelmsford: This is a new meeting on the calendar

 

 

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