Placepot pointers – Friday July 8

NEWMARKET (JULY COURSE) - JULY 8

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:</p>

2015: £1,377.30 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket: 

Leg 1 (2.05): 10 (Mr Tyrrell), 3 (D'bai) & 6 (Fujaira Bridge)

Leg 2 (2.40): 5 (Weld Al Emarat), 9 (Fawaareq) & 7 (Clear Water)

Leg 3 (3.10): 11 (Sainted), 13 (Aristocratic) & 5 (Drifting Spirit)

Leg 4 (3.45): 6 (Nations Alexander) & 7 (Roly Poly)

Leg 5 (4.15): 5 (Usherette) & 2 (Amazing Maria)

Leg 6 (4.45): 9 (Bathos) & 10 (Autocratic)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.05:  Six of the last twelve renewals have fallen the way of market leaders in a race which has produced plenty of decent winners in the past.  The 2012 winner (Ghurair) went on to win Newmarket’s ‘Tattersalls Millions’ later in the year.  ’Team Hannon’ rule the roost in the training sector, having secured six victories since 2002. Richard (Senior) had saddled three of the previous eight winners at 25/1-6/1-7/2 before he retired.  Richard (junior) has taken up the mantle to winning via 10/1 & 15/8 winners in the last two years.  Richard has offered the green light to MR TYRRELL who is the first name on the team sheet ahead of another newcomer in D'BAI.  My trio is completed my another debutante in FUJAIRA BRIDGE, given that none of the experienced horses have pulled up any trees thus far.

Favourite factor:  Eight clear favourites and one joint favourite have won during the study period.  12/23 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.  Horses starting at 16/1 or more have claimed just eight Placepot positions via 113 representatives during the study period.

2.40: I am a little surprised that this event has been raised to the second race of the day, bearing in mind it was the seventh (and final) contest last year.  Four-year-olds have secured three of the last four renewals and vintage representatives are 7/5 to extend the recent run before the form book is consulted. My tentative trio against the remaining nine contenders consists of four-year-old WELD AL EMARAT, FAWAAREQ and CLEAR WATER.

Favourite factor: Five of the last six market leaders have finished in the frame, whilst favourites of one description or another have won four times during the last decade.

Record of the course winner in the second event on the card:

1/1--Fawaareq (soft)

3.10: 17 of the last 19 winners of this contest have carried weights of 9-1 or less and the trio to home in on from this sector of the weights (11/13 qualify) from my viewpoint are SAINTED, ETERNALLY and ARISTOCRATIC.  Sir Michael Stoute (ARISTOCATIC) has saddled two of the last twelve winners of this event (not represented in every renewal by any means) whereby the chance of his Exceed And Excel filly is respected at the overnight stage. Joe Fanning boasts a 4/9 record for Michael when riding three-year-olds for the trainer during the last five years.  The 'dark horse' in the contest is Richard Fahey's course and distance winner DRIFTING SPIRIT.

Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won this race during the last nineteen years, whilst 14/25 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions in the process.

Record of course winners in the third race: 

1/2--Drifting Spirit (good)

1/1--Permission (good to soft)

1/1--Sainted (soft)

3.45: In a race which I will always refer to as the ‘Cherry Hinton’ (apologies in place to the Duchess of Cambridge) I can impart news that ‘Team Hannon‘ are the only training establishment to have saddled three winners of this event during the last twelve years (no other trainers have saddled more than one winner during the period), with heavy ground winner NATIONS ALEXANDER representing the stable this time around.  Richard‘s raider might not be thwarted by the ground as overnight thunderstorms are starting to hit the radar at the time of writing. Stable companion SOMEBODY TO LOVE cannot be written off either whilst if Richard is to be denied this time around, NASIMI and ROLY POLY could prove to be the jokers in the pack.

Favourite factor:  Eight of the last sixteen favourites have won whilst 15/21 market leaders secured toteplacepot positions in the process.

Record of the course winner in the fourth contest:

1/1--Nations Alexander (heavy)

4.15: Three-year-olds have won nine of the last nineteen renewals of this Group 1 even though four-year-olds come to the gig on this occasion on a six timer.  The ‘Falmouth‘ often proves to be one of the highlights of the week but USHERETTE looks likely to benefit from rain according to latest forecasts whereby Andre Fabre's raider should prove difficult to beat.  That said, last year's winner AMAZING MARIA holds a victory over the four-year-old with the booking of Olivier Peslier catching the eye.

Favourite factor:  Five clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the last eighteen years, whilst 11/18 jollies have claimed toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the fifth race:

1/1--Amazing Maria (good to firm)

4.45: Mark Johnston has won the last three renewals and his five time winner BATHOS attracts the eye, especially being a course winner.  Mark has two other contenders to assess, the pick being WELFORD, whilst others to consider include AUTOCRATIC and CARTAGO.

Favourite factor: Nine renewals have come and gone since the last favourite obliged.  Five of the last nine gold medallists were returned at double figure prices, ranging between 11/1 and 25/1.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/1--Bathos (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newmarket (July Course) card on Friday:

6--Saeed Bin Suroor (2/4 at Newmarket - winners at 2/1 & 2/1** - this season before Thursday's sport was contested)

5--Mark Johnston (1/5 - winner at 11/8*)

4--Charlie Appleby (0/1)

4--Richard Hannon (2/23 - winners at 8/1 & 3/1*)

4--John Gosden (1/15 - winner at 7/4*)

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3--Roger Varian (0/2)

2--George Baker (---)

2--Marco Botti (1/2 - winner at 8/1)

2--Owen Burrows (1/3 - winner at 10/3)

2--Simon Crisford (0/2)

2--Richard Fahey (0/3)

2--James Fanshawe (winners at 14/1 & 11/4)

2--William Haggas (1/4 - winner at 11/4)

2--Charlie Hills (1/7 - winner at 3/1*)

2--Aidan O'Brien (--)

2--Hugo Palmer (1/2 - winner at 7/2*)

2--Kevin Ryan (0/3)

2--David Simcock (2/3 - winners 11/4* & 8/11*)

2--Sir Michael Stoute (1/6 - winner at 4/1)

+ 31 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

83 declared runners

 

General overview - corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ascot: £381.30 - 6 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced

Chepstow: £9.20 - 8 favourites - 2 winners & 6 placed

Chester: £108.70 - 6 favourites - 1 winner - 2 placed - 3 unplaced

Mark Johnston secured a 17/1 double at Chester on last year's corresponding card

York: £179.70 - 6 favourites - 2 winners & 4 unplaced

Musselburgh - New fixture

 

Newmarket overview - Five year juvenile record of represented trainers in the relevant events (before Thursday's sport was contested):

2.05:

5/39--Ed Dunlop (Amlad)

No runners - Amanda Perrett (Chaparrachik)

13/64--Charlie Appleby (D'bai)

13/53--Saeed Bin Suroor (Dubai Hero)

2/16--Hugo Palmer (Evergate)

1/21--Roger Varian (Fujaira Bridge)

No runners - George Scott (Gilgamesh)

11/59--John Gosden (Hyde Park & Khalidi)

19/110--Richard Hannon (Mr Tyrrell)

0/2--Julia Feilden (Mungo Madross)

3.45: 

1/2--Simon Crisford (Asidious Alexander)

0/24--Ralph Beckett (Bletchley)

8/58--Mark Johnston (Kilmah)

No runners - M D O'Callaghan (Migical Fire)

13/64--Charlie Appleby (Nasimi)

19/110--Richard Hannon (Nations Alexander & Somebody To Love)

1/7--Aidan O'Brien (Roly Poly)

1/16--James Tate (Sea Front)

1/16--David Simcock (Soul Silver)

 

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