ROYAL ASCOT – JUNE 17
Corresponding Placepot dividends during the last five years:
2015: £139.40 (7 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)
2014: £84.20 (7 favourites: No winners - 4 placed - 3 unplaced)
2013: £195.20 (7 favourites: 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)
2012: £257.60 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)
2011: £2,568.10 (6 favourites: 2 winners & 4 unplaced)
Average Placepot dividend: £648.90
33 favourites - 10 winners - 8 placed - 15 unplaced
Friday's Placepot permutation at Royal Ascot:
Leg 1 (2.30): 5 (Cuff), 7 (Grizzel) & 4 (Create A Dream)
Leg 2 (3.05): 2 (Beacon Rock), 3 (Carntop) & 9 (Muntahaa)
Leg 3 (3.40): 10 (Illuminate), 11 (Rioja Day) & 6 (Log Out Island)
Leg 4 (4.20): 8 (Nathra) & 6 (Jet Setting)
Leg 5 (5.00): 19 (Fabricate), 18 (Rare Rhythm) & 15 (First Sitting)
Leg 6 (5.35): 9 (Landofhopeandglory) & 18 (Girling)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.30: February and March foals tend to dominate this two-year-old contest on the penultimate day of the royal meeting. CUFF, GRIZZEL and ROMANTIC VIEW qualify via foaling dates and it's a case of 'drawing lots' to a fashion to decide which horses to include in my permutation. CREATE A DREAM is a much later (April 25) foal but such was the manner of her victory here at Ascot at the first time of asking the thick end of two months ago, that the Oasis Dream representative has to enter the equation, especially as I was expecting her to contest the 'Queen Mary' earlier in the week.
Favourite factor: 11 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions via the last 14 renewals, statistics which include four winners.
3.05: I was thinking that this looked to be an inferior renewal of the 'King Edward VII' until I researched the official ratings of winners in recent years which makes BEACON ROCK (108), HUMPHREY BOGART (105) and CARNTOP (104) thoroughly decent declarations. Compare this to the 92 rating of Eagle Top a few years ago and you will catch my drift. The trio is (arguably) listed in order of preference over MUNTAHAA who could yet be anything though according to the BHA, John Gosden's Dansili colt had a lot to prove in this grade/company.
Favourite factor: This is the best race for favourite backers throughout the five days, with nine of the last nineteen market leaders having prevailed, a top priced winner of 12/1 being recorded during the study period. Five of the other ten market leaders finished out of the frame.
3.40: Being a self confessed 'trend anorak', I have come out in a nasty rash with only one contest to work with in this Group 1 event. The trio of fillies at the foot of the list 'only' receive three pounds from the colts here but even so, they have enough about them to warrant inclusion in this analysis. ILLUMINATE is particularly interesting, albeit we have to take it on trust that Richard Hannon's Zoffany raider has trained on. We can draw little from her effort in the 1000 Guineas and a return to this six furlong trip will give her a much better chance of making a mark as a three-year-old. Northern raider QUIET REFLECTION more than deserves her chance, whilst RIOJA DAY will strip fitter for her Haydock bow. The pick of the chaps on parade could prove to be LOG OUT ISLAND who stamped himself to be a really progressive type when hosing up in a Lited Newbury event. WASHINGTON DC is the other potential winner in the line up from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: Last year's inaugural 9/4 favourite finished nearer last than first.
4.20: NATHRA remains relatively unexposed with less than six miles on her racing clock and with Frankie Dettori in terrific form this week, I'm opting for John Gosden's Iffraaj raider to regain the winning thread. Having finished 'in the two' in five of her six races to date (winner of three contests), NATHRA is due to score again. Connections might have most to fear from JET SETTING and NEMORALIA. The first named raider has a success over Minding to her name, whilst Olivia Peslier is an interesting booking for Jeremy Noseda's NEMORALIA.
Favourite factor: The biggest priced winner during the last fifteen renewals was the 12/1 chance that scored in 2012, during which time eight market leaders have won, albeit those figures include four joint favourites. 12 of the last 24 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.
5.00: Mark Johnston has saddled two of the last seven winners, whilst ten of the last fifteen winners have carried weights of 9-2 or less. Four-year-olds have won nine of the last eleven contests. A 'short list' of FABRICATE, RARE RHYTHM and DAWN MISSILE emerges taking all the facts and stats into consideration. The overnight reserve nomination is awarded to FIRST SITTING who hails from the in form yard of Chris Wall, the Dansili raider having finished 'in the two' in six of his thirteen assignments to date, a consistency level which should reward each way/Placepot investors in the penultimate leg of our favourite wager.
Favourite factor: 12 of the last 20 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include four successful market leaders.
5.35: Aidan O’Brien has secured four gold and three silver medals during the last nine years whereby the chances of LANDOFHOPEANDGLORY, COLE PORTER and SWORD FIGHTER are all respected, the trio being listed in order of preference. There are plenty of potential English winners in the line up too though as ever, so many horses are stepping into unknown territory on this marathon event that it is difficult to become overly positive. GIRLING might prove to be the pick of the home contingent.
Favourite factor: 12 of the last 19 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions of late, statistics which include seven winners. 18 of the last 19 winners of the Queens Vase were returned at odds of 7/1 or less.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Royal Ascot card on Friday:
10--Aidan O'Brien (1/7 at Ascot this season - before Thursday's sport was contested)
7--Mark Johnston (1/11)
6--Richard Hannon (1/22)
4--Ralph Beckett (0/3)
4--Richard Fahey (1/7)
3--Charlie Appleby (1/13)
3--John Gosden (3/16)
3--William Haggas (0/9)
3--David Simcock (0/2)
2--Jim Bolger (0/2)
2--Tom Dascombe (0/5)
2--Brian Meehan (0/3)
2--Kevin Ryan (0/2)
2--Sir Michael Stoute (1/8)
2--Saeed Bin Suroor (2/12)
2--Roger Varian (2/10)
2--Dermot Weld (0/1)
+ 32 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
91 declared runners
Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Goodwood: £12.70 - 6 favourites - 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced (Mark Johnston secured a 23/1 double last year)
Market Rasen: £18.80 - 6 favourites - 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced
Newmarket (July course): £103.60 - 7 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced
Redcar: £24.70 - 6 favourites - 3 winners - 2 plced - 1 unplaced (Ruth Carr notched an 18/1 double twelve months ago)
The Ayr meeting is a new fixture on the calendar
Royal Ascot overview:
Norfolk Stakes (2.30): Richard Hannon (Grizzel) is the only represented trainer to have saddled a (4/1*) winner during the last five years