Placepot Pointers

Placepot Pointers – Friday June 2

EPSOM – JUNE 2 

 

Epsom Placepot dividends on Oaks day during the last six years:

2016: £339.40 (7 favourites – 3 winners & 4 unplaced)

2015: £32.90 (7 favourites: 1 winner - 5 placed - 1 unplaced)

2014: £27.10 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)

2013: £881.00 (7 favourites: 2 winners & 5 unplaced)

2012: £135.30 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

2011: £46.20 (6 favourites: 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)

Average Placepot dividend: £243.65 - 39 favourites - 13 winners - 9 placed - 17 unplaced

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Epsom: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 2 (De Bruyne Horse) & 1 (Cardsharp)

Leg 2 (2.35): 4 (G K Chesterton), 10 (Mutarakez) & 2 (Sixties Groove)

Leg 3 (3.10): 4 (Highland Reel) & 10 (Journey)

Leg 4 (3.45): 10 (Brorocco), 9 (Grapevine) & 5 (Fidaawy)

Leg 5 (4.30): 9 (Rhododendron), 4 (Enable) & 7 (Natavia)

Leg 6 (5.15): 4 (Seven Heavens) & 6 (Sutter Country)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.00: Mark Johnston has secured four renewals of the Listed ‘Woodcote’ event during the last 15 years and in CARDSHARP, the trainer has a horse which could figure prominently again at the very least.  'Team Hannon' have produced three of the last four winners, with DE BRUYNE HORSE boasting obvious claims, notwithstanding Richard’s second string CAMPION. There was nothing much to enthuse over when DE BRUYNE HORSE ran on debut, though his subsequent effort when ripping a Ripon race apart is logged in the memory bank. ZAP deserves his place in the line-up but I will adhere to the trainer trends which will not come as a shock to regular readers!

Favourite factor: Six clear market leaders, two joint and one co favourite have won of late, while 13 of the last 23 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.

Draw factor (six furlongs – most recent result listed first):

3-7 (6 ran-soft)

6-2-3 (9 ran-good to firm)

1-8-9 (8 ran-good)

1-6-4 (11 ran-good)

4-8 (7 ran-good to firm)

8-1-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

5-8-6 (9 ran-good to firm)

11-10-3 (12 ran-good)

3-10-2 (10 ran-good)

11-9-1 (13 ran-good)

1-4 (6 ran-good to firm)

2-5-9 (10 ran-good)

1-7-5 (8 ran-good)

3-8-1 (10 ran-good)

5-4 (6 ran-good to soft)

2-8-7 (11 ran-good to firm)

8-2 (7 ran-good)

2-1-7 (9 ran-good to soft)

2-5 (7 ran-good)

 

2.35: Four-year-olds have called the shots in this race, as ten vintage representatives have won during the last nineteen years (including eight of the last fifteen--vintage raiders finished second and third in 2013 at 16/1 & 10/1).  Four-year-olds were returned at 20/1-10/1-33/1 the previous year when finishing immediately behind the five-year-old winner.  This all said, five-year-olds have fought back of late, having claimed four of the last seven contests. 12 of the last 13 winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-4.  Putting the stats and facts together produces a short list of G K CHESTERTON, MUTARAKEZ and SIXTIES GROOVE, the lone course winner in the field.

Favourite factor: Just one favourite has prevailed during the last decade though that said, all ten winners have scored at a top price of 12/1 which in the context of a competitive handicap is a half decent return for punters. Six of the eleven market leaders have secured Placepot positions.

Draw factor' (eight and a half furlongs):

7-5-3 (12 ran-good to soft)

11-6-12 (12 ran-good)

2-13-1-15 (16 ran-good)

11-6-13 (14 ran-good to soft)

7-4-12-1 (17 ran-good)

4-12-17-15 (18 ran-good)

10-8-6 (14 ran-good)

12-3-8 (9 ran-good)

11-14-10 (14 ran-good)

4-9-14 (14 ran-good to soft)

15-2-1-12 (16 ran-good)

4-1-6 (11 ran-good)

8-11-7 (13 ran-good)

5-1-3-15 (16 ran-good)

1-10-5 (10 ran-soft)

3-9-2 (11 ran-good to firm)

3-10-16 (14 ran-good to soft)

9-8-5 (14 ran-good to soft)

15-14-7 (14 ran-good)

Epsom record of course winners in the second event on the Oaks card:

1/1—Sixties Groove (good)

 

3.10: Four-year-olds have secured seven of the last eighteen renewals, with FRONTIERSMAN expected to lead the other vintage representatives home.  Whether any of them can beat HIGHLAND REEL and (possibly) JOURNEY is open to doubt. With Aidan O’Brien having won seven of the last twelve renewals, selecting the much travelled HIGHLAND REEL is hardly a mind-blowing manouvre. JOURNEY has scope for improvement as has FRONTIERSMAN, but they might have to improve quicker than the relevant connections expect to lower the colours of the projected favourite.

Favourite factor: Eight of the last nineteen favourites have won, whilst fourteen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions in during the study period.

Draw factor: (twelve furlongs):

3-4-1 (8 ran-good to soft)

5 (4 ran-good to firm)

7-5 (7 ran-good)

3-5 (5 ran-good)

4-6 (6 ran-good to firm)

1-3 (5 ran-good)

8-5-1 (9 ran-good)

8-5-1 (8 ran-good)

7-3-10 (11 ran-good)

2-3 (7 ran-good to soft)

5-2 (6 ran-good)

9-6 (7 ran-good)

5-1-3 (11 ran-good)

4-8-7 (9 ran-good)

3-4 (6 ran-soft)

1-2 (6 ran-good to firm)

2 (4 ran-good to soft)

3-2 (7 ran-good to soft)

2-1 (7 ran-good)

Epsom record of course winners in the Coronation Cup:

1/1--Elbereth (good)

 

3.45: Four-year-olds have dominated this event as vintage representatives have snared eight of the last nineteen renewals, whilst eight of the last ten winners have carried a minimum weight of nine stones.  Putting the stats and facts together produces an overnight short list of BROROCCO, course and distance winner GRAPEVINE and FIDAAWY.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have won during the course of the last nineteen years, whilst only seven market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions over the period, even though some joint favourites (including last year) have been involved as you might imagine in such a competitive event.

Draw factor' (ten furlongs):

1-4-3 (10 ran-good to soft)

7-13-10 (13 ran-good to firm)

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5-10-6 (12 ran-good)

12-4-5 (8 ran-good to soft)

8-2-3 (13 ran-good)

8-1-5 (11 ran-good)

10-5-3 (12 ran-good)

4-11-6 (10 ran-good)

5-2-1 (10 ran-good)

1-4-11 (12 ran-good to soft)

13-12-4-2 (17 ran-good)

10-8-15-14 (17 ran-good)

1-3-7 (11 ran-good)

6-7-2 (14 ran-good)

10-1-9 (11 ran-good to soft)

10-11-6 (12 ran-good to firm)

14-7-6 (14 ran-good)

10-3-8 (15 ran-good)

3-8-10 (14 ran-good)

Epsom record of course winners in the fourth race:

1/2—Great Hall (good)

2/7—What About Carlo (good & heavy)

1/2—Innocent Touch (good)

1/1—Examiner (good to soft)

1/1—Grapevine (good to soft)

1/1—Brorocco (good)

2/4—Imshivalla (good & good to soft)

 

4.30: There are contrasting stats relating to outsiders in the 'favourite factor' sector below because although lots of outsiders have won the Epsom Oaks of late, few others have reached the frame via an exact science.  This second classic race of the season comes down to a flip of the coin basically, with 5/6 (thereabouts) on offer at the time of writing about RHODODENDRON.  There is a school of thought that suggests that Aidan O'Brien will win his seventh Oaks with little fuss though John Gosden is particularly sweet on his Nathaniel filly ENABLE, with John waxing lyrical about his representative in recent weeks. NATAVIA is another Nathanial contender and there could have been any amount of further scope for Roger Charlton to have worked on in the lead up to the contest. SOBETSU receives the reserve nomination at the overnight stage.

Favourite factor: Only 17 of the 122 horses sent off at 14/1 or more have claimed toteplacepot positions (five winners) during the last 19 years.  On the other hand, five of the last nine winners have scored at odds ranging between 20/1 & 50/1.  Seven clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won the Oaks in recent years.  14 of the 21 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.

Draw factor' (twelve furlongs):

4-9-5 (9 ran-good to soft)

2-1-11 (11 ran-good)

9-10-17 (17 ran-good)

3-1-6 (11 ran-good to soft)

10-8-2 (12 ran-good)

7-12-2 (13 ran-good)

15-4-2 (14 ran-good)

5-2-9 (10 ran-good)

13-10-11 (16 ran-good)

11-9-6 (14 ran-good to soft)

5-3-10 (10 ran-good)

2-4-9 (12 ran-good)

3-6 (7 ran-good)

7-11-9 (15 ran-good)

13-10-3 (14 ran-soft)

10-13-6 (14 ran-good to firm)

3-15-7 (16 ran-good to soft)

5-9-3 (10 ran-good to soft)

5-4-8 (8 ran-good)

 

5.15: Ten of the last eleven winners of the toteplacepot finale have carried a maximum burden of 9-4 and though that trend is guaranteed to be extended this time around, I have left the stat in for your records. Whatever happens to John Gosden’s two runners in the Oaks, I fancy the stable to land the Placepot finale with SEVEN HEAVENS, chiefly at the expense of SUTTER COUNTRY.

Favourite factor: Seven clear market leaders and two joint favourites have won to date via nineteen renewals, taking into account that the favourite nine years ago was withdrawn shortly before the off before a new market could be formed.  12 of the 19 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.

Draw factor' (seven furlongs):

6-2-7 (8 ran-good to soft)

7-2-4 (9 ran-good)

6-2 (5 ran-good)

1-5 (7 ran-good to soft)

7-2 (6 ran-good)

5-1 (6 ran-good)

1-3-6 (8 ran-good)

9-2-5 (9 ran-good)

3-9 (7 ran-good)

2-3-10 (9 ran-good to soft)

5-4 (6 ran-good)

7-2-9 (9 ran-good)

2-9-7 (9 ran-good)

3-5 (5 ran-soft)

6-7 (7 ran-good to firm)

5-9-2 (9 ran-good to soft)

1-4 (6 ran-good)

1-5-9 (9 ran-good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Epsom card on Friday – followed by their five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued:

7 runners—Richard Fahey (13/86 (+25)

6—John Gosden (9/33 – loss of 4 points)

6—Aidan O’Brien (5/32 – Profit of 32 points)

5—Mark Johnston (14/113 – loss of 42 points)

4—Charlie Appleby (4.23 – loss of 8 points)

4—Richard Hannon (10/59 – loss of 13 points)

3—Andrew Balding (15/106 – Slight profit)

2—Ralph Beckett (9/43 – Profit of 17 points)

2—Clive Cox (2/17 – Profit of 3 points)

2—Simon Dow (No runners)

2—Charlie Hills (3.27 – loss of 18 points)

2—Sylvester Kirk (4/30 – Profit of 12 points)

2—Hughie Morrison (1/11 – loss of five points)

2—Jeremy Noseda (loss of 3 points)

2—Archie Watson (No runners)

+ 39 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

21 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Bath: £26.80 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

Catterick: £35.00 – 7 runners – 1 winner – 3 placed – 3 unplaced

Doncaster: £10,288.90 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

Goodwood: £176.20 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Market Rasen: £15.50 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

 

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