Placepot pointers – Friday June 3

EPSOM – JUNE 3 

 

Epsom Placepot dividends on Oaks day during the last five years:

2015: £32.90 (7 favourites: 1 winner - 5 placed - 1 unplaced)

2014: £27.10 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)

2013: £881.00 (7 favourites: 2 winners & 5 unplaced)

2012: £135.30 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

2011: £46.20 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

Average Placepot dividend: £224.50 - 32 favourites - 10 winners - 9 placed - 13 unplaced

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Epsom: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 6 (Sea Of Snow), 5 (Tibr) & 2 (Hyperfocus)

Leg 2 (2.35): 4 (Dark Red), 8 (What About Carlo) & 2 (Pasaka Boy)

Leg 3 (3.10): 3 (Arod), 1 (Custom Cut) & 4 (Celestial Path)

Leg 4 (3.45): 9 (Dutch Uncle) & 12 (Alcatraz)

Leg 5 (4.30): 5 (Minding), 7 (Skiffle) & 4 (Harlequeen)

Leg 6 (5.15): 5 (Raycous), 8 (Make Fast) & 4 (Justice Law)

Suggested stake: 486 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.00: Mark Johnston has secured four renewals of the Listed ‘Woodcote’ event (moved from its previous Saturday slot) during the last 14 years and in SEA OF SNOW, the trainer has a horse which could figure prominently again at the very least.  'Team Hannon' have produced two of the last three winners, though I would be surprised if Legendary Lunch could improve the recent ratio, with yours truly opting for TIBR and HYPERFOCUS as the main threats to SEA OF SNOW who gets the marginal vote from a win perspective.  A dual winner from as many outings to date, William Buick's has ventured south to Windsor to record both victories to date in the style of a decent juvenile.

Favourite factor: Six clear market leaders, one joint and one co favourite have won of late, while 12 of the last 21 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.

Draw factor (six furlongs):

6-2-3 (9 ran-good to firm)

1-8-9 (8 ran-good)

1-6-4 (11 ran-good)

4-8 (7 ran-good to firm)

8-1-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

5-8-6 (9 ran-good to firm)

11-10-3 (12 ran-good)

3-10-2 (10 ran-good)

11-9-1 (13 ran-good)

1-4 (6 ran-good to firm)

2-5-9 (10 ran-good)

1-7-5 (8 ran-good)

3-8-1 (10 ran-good)

5-4 (6 ran-good to soft)

2-8-7 (11 ran-good to firm)

8-2 (7 ran-good)

2-1-7 (9 ran-good to soft)

2-5 (7 ran-good)

2.35: Four-year-olds have dominated this event as vintage representatives have snared eight of the last eighteen renewals, whilst eight of the last nine winners have carried a minimum weight of nine stones.  Putting the stats and facts together produces an overnight short list of DARK RED, PASAKA BOY and WHAT ABOUT CARLO.  Four-year-old DARK RED sits sixteen ounces below the 'superior' weight barrier which leaves us without a horse possessing ticks in both of the trend boxes.  PASAKA BOY looked to have been given a prep race for this event on his seasonal debut, whilst course and distance winner WHAT ABOUT CARLO invariably lures me to include Eve Johnson Houghton's raider in my Placepot mix, even though this might be his last chance saloon given recent efforts.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have won during the course of the last eighteen years, whilst only seven market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions over the period, even though some joint favourites (including last year) have been involved as you might imagine in such a competitive event.

Draw factor' (ten furlongs):

7-13-10 (13 ran-good to firm)

5-10-6 (12 ran-good)

12-4-5 (8 ran-good to soft)

8-2-3 (13 ran-good)

8-1-5 (11 ran-good)

10-5-3 (12 ran-good)

4-11-6 (10 ran-good)

5-2-1 (10 ran-good)

1-4-11 (12 ran-good to soft)

13-12-4-2 (17 ran-good)

10-8-15-14 (17 ran-good)

1-3-7 (11 ran-good)

6-7-2 (14 ran-good)

10-1-9 (11 ran-good to soft)

10-11-6 (12 ran-good to firm)

14-7-6 (14 ran-good)

10-3-8 (15 ran-good)

3-8-10 (14 ran-good)

Epsom record of course winners in the second race:

1/3--Fire Fighting (good to firm)

2/5--What About Carlo (good & heavy)

1/1--Dark Red (soft)

1/5--Pasaka Boy (good)

1/6--Sennockian Star (good to soft)

1/3--Imshivalla (good)

3.10: I rarely mention the ‘sister’ bet of the toteplacepot but on this occasion I have some interesting stats to offer, with this race starting the ‘insurance’ (totequadpot) bet if that is the way you view the wager.  The average totequadpot dividend on Oaks day at Epsom during the last 12 years paid £87.51.  51 favourites emerged, resulting in 17 winners, 12 were placed, 21 unplaced and one non runner.  The first and second horses home last year AROD and CUSTOM CUT clash again and they should figure prominently for sure, with the latter named raider probably better suited to the likely soft conditions on Friday, ground which should the pair together in theory.  Outsiders to consider include MASTER THE WORLD and CELESTIAL PATH.

Favourite factor: 14 of the last 18 winners have scored at 8/1 or less, statistics which include five winning favourites.  Only three of the last seven favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.

Draw factor' (eight and a half furlongs):

6-1 (7 ran-good)

1-5 (7 ran-good)

7-6 (7 ran-good to soft)

6-4 (6 ran-good)

1-8-6 (8 ran-good to firm)

8-2-9 (9 ran-good)

4-8-7 (8 ran-good)

5-8-4 (8 ran-good)

2-3 (5 ran-good)

2-5-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

1-4 (7 ran-good)

3-1-10 (11 ran-good)

9-11-3 (10 ran-good)

6-8-7 (9 ran-good to soft)

6-1-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

2-3 (5 ran-good)

4-2 (6 ran-good)

3-1-2 (10 ran-good)

Epsom record of course winners in the third contest:

1/2--Arod (good)

1/1--Mindurownbusiness (good to firm)

3.45: Four-year-olds have called the shots in this race, as ten vintage representatives have won during the last eighteen years (including eight of the last fourteen--vintage raiders finished second and third in 2013 at 16/1 & 10/1).  Four-year-olds were returned at 20/1-10/1-33/1 the previous year when finishing immediately behind the five-year-old winner.  11 of the last 12 winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-4.  Four-year-olds which make the most appeal this time around are DUTCH UNCLE, ALCRATAZ and SPRING OFFENSIVE.  My three four-year-olds put up against the field last year filled the forecast positions at 7/1 (first named) & 10/1, producing an Exacta dividend of £97.00.

Draw factor' (eight and a half furlongs):

11-6-12 (12 ran-good)

2-13-1-15 (16 ran-good)

11-6-13 (14 ran-good to soft)

7-4-12-1 (17 ran-good)

4-12-17-15 (18 ran-good)

10-8-6 (14 ran-good)

12-3-8 (9 ran-good)

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11-14-10 (14 ran-good)

4-9-14 (14 ran-good to soft)

15-2-1-12 (16 ran-good)

4-1-6 (11 ran-good)

8-11-7 (13 ran-good)

5-1-3-15 (16 ran-good)

1-10-5 (10 ran-soft)

3-9-2 (11 ran-good to firm)

3-10-16 (14 ran-good to soft)

9-8-5 (14 ran-good to soft)

15-14-7 (14 ran-good)

Epsom record of course winners in the fourth event on the Oaks card:

1/2--Fieldsman (good)

1/1--Persun (good to soft)

4.30: There are contrasting stats relating to outsiders in the 'favourite factor' sector below because although lots of outsiders have won the Epsom Oaks of late, few others have reached the frame via an exact science.  This second classic race of the season comes down to a flip of the coin basically, with even money (thereabouts) generally on offer at the time of writing about MINDING.  There is a school of thought that suggests that Aidan O'Brien would win his sixth Oaks with little fuss had the filly arrived here straight from Newmarket following her fine Guineas success, probably going off as a 1/3 chance in that instance.  Instead, we find Ryan Moore's mount contesting her third tough race in little more than a month, nothwithstanding the fact that she is far from certain to stay the distance at top speed, especially on rain softened ground.  The other side of the coin is that there are few fillies in the line up that jump off the page, though SKIFFLE is the biggest threat from my viewpoint.  The two alternative outsiders I would consider are DIAMONDS POR MOI and HARLEQUEEN who could easily outrun her 25/1 odds if settling early in the race.

Favourite factor: Only 16 of the 119 horses sent off at 14/1 or more have claimed toteplacepot positions (five winners) during the last 18 years.  On the other hand, five of the last eight winners have scored at odds ranging between 20/1 & 50/1.  Six clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won the Oaks in recent years.  13 of the 20 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.

Draw factor' (twelve furlongs):

2-1-11 (11 ran-good)

9-10-17 (17 ran-good)

3-1-6 (11 ran-good to soft)

10-8-2 (12 ran-good)

7-12-2 (13 ran-good)

15-4-2 (14 ran-good)

5-2-9 (10 ran-good)

13-10-11 (16 ran-good)

11-9-6 (14 ran-good to soft)

5-3-10 (10 ran-good)

2-4-9 (12 ran-good)

3-6 (7 ran-good)

7-11-9 (15 ran-good)

13-10-3 (14 ran-soft)

10-13-6 (14 ran-good to firm)

3-15-7 (16 ran-good to soft)

5-9-3 (10 ran-good to soft)

5-4-8 (8 ran-good)

5.15: Nine of the last ten winners of the toteplacepot finale have carried a maximum burden of 9-4 and RAUCOUS, MAKE FAST and JUSTICE LAW are nominated from the small (dead eight) crowd gathered for an interesting contest, especially as all three horses have won with cut in the ground.  The trio are listed is order of preference at the overnight stage. The weight stat does not help us on this occasion as all eight runners 'qualify', though I have left the stat in the analysis, knowing that some readers keep records.

Favourite factor: Seven clear market leaders and two joint favourites have won to date via eighteen renewals, taking into account that the favourite eight years ago was withdrawn shortly before the off before a new market could be formed.  12 of the 18 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.

Draw factor' (seven furlongs):

7-2-4 (9 ran-good)

6-2 (5 ran-good)

1-5 (7 ran-good to soft)

7-2 (6 ran-good)

5-1 (6 ran-good)

1-3-6 (8 ran-good)

9-2-5 (9 ran-good)

3-9 (7 ran-good)

2-3-10 (9 ran-good to soft)

5-4 (6 ran-good)

7-2-9 (9 ran-good)

2-9-7 (9 ran-good)

3-5 (5 ran-soft)

6-7 (7 ran-good to firm)

5-9-2 (9 ran-good to soft)

1-4 (6 ran-good)

1-5-9 (9 ran-good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Epsom card on Friday:

5--Mark Johnston (13/120 at Epsom during the last five years and then the 2016 ratio: 0/3)

4--Mick Channon (14/79 - 0/1)

4--Ed Dunlop (2/31 - 1/3)

4--David Elsworth (1/3 - First runner this season)

4--Richard Fahey (11/74 - First runner)

3--Andrew Balding (18/118 - 0/1)

3--Aidan O'Brien (7/33 - 0/1)

3--Hugo Palmer (0/4 - First runner)

2--George Baker (6/26 - 1/1)

2--Ralph Beckett (9/41 - 0/2)

2--Richard Hannon (9/43 - 0/4)

2--Sir Mark Prescott (2/15 - First runner)

2--Roger Varian (8/37 - First runner)

2--Jedd O'Keeffe - No runners during the last five years at Epsom)

+ 24 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

66 declared runners

 

General overview: 

Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Bath: £44.10 (7 favourites - 3 winners - 3 placed - 1 unplaced)

Catterick: £6.70 (6 favourites - 5 winners & 1 placed)

Goodwood: £28.70 (6 favourites - 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

Market Rasen: £32.00 (6 favourites - 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced

Friday's evening fixture at Doncaster is a new meeting

 

Epsom overview:

Records of reprented trainers of juveniles in the 2.40 event (five year stats)

This is the first juvenile event of the season at Epsom

1/12--David Barron (Danielsflyer)

0/4--Hugo Palmer (Hyperfocus)

4/14--Richard Hannon (Legendary Lunch)

5/28--Mick Channon (Sayesse)

1/5--Ed Dunlop (Tibr)

4/26--Mark Johnston (Sea Of Snow)

0/2--Phil McEntee (The Lady Hysteria)

 

 

 

 

 

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