NEWMARKET (JULY COURSE) – JUNE 30
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £23.20 (8 favourites: 3 winners & 5 unplaced)
Friday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket:
Leg 1 (5.50): 4 (Easy Code), 6 (Truly Scrumptios) & 1 (My Lucille)
Leg 2 (6.20): 6 (Vodka Pigeon) & 3 (Oriental Song)
Leg 3 (6.50): 4 (Patchwork), 3 (Tadween) & 2 (Fareeq)
Leg 4 (7.25): 3 (Solar Cross), 4 (Joshua Reynolds) & 2 (Arab Moon)
Leg 5 (7.55): 3 (Perfect Madge), 2 (Pepita) & 5 (Tallulah Rose)
Leg 6 (8.30): 5 (Al Neksh) & 4 (Firnas)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
5.50: The twelve winners of the opening race have scored at 10/1-9/1-9/1-8/1-8/1-8/1-7/1-6/1-11/2-5/1-7/2-9/4** to date, whilst 19 of the 35 horses (54%) to have claimed toteplacepot positions have started at 7/1 or more. The stats suggest that you should treat this opening race with caution and perhaps only become financially involved via our favourite wager, leaving others to invest from a win perspective. The last nine winners (and eleven of the twelve in total) have carried a minimum burden of 8-10 whereby my trio against the other five contenders consists of EASY CODE, TRULY SCRUMPTIOUS and MY LUCILLE. Out of interest, four-year-olds have won five of the last eight renewals with EASY CODE fancied to carry on the good work on behalf of the vintage.
Favourite factor: Seven of the thirteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions to date. Successful favourites from a win perspective had been conspicuous only by their absence until three years ago, when the 9/4 joint favourites filled the 'short field' frame. New readers might like to know that the term 'short field' relates to races for 5/6/7 runners in which only the first two horses home qualify for each way/toteplacepot positions, especially if a non-runner rears its ugly head to deny us a ‘dead eight’ event.
Record of the course winner in the opening race:
5/15—Truly Scrumptious (2 x good to firm – good – good to soft – soft) – Truly Scrumptious has gained all five of his career victories at this venue.
6.20: Tom Dascombe tends to run some of his better juveniles at Haydock whereby the 9/2 about VODKA PIGEON was worth a look on her first day at school and Tom’s Sepoy filly must have delighted connections by running second that day, giving the impression that a race was hers for the taking sometime during her first term. That said, ORIENTAL SONG was just as impressive at the first time of asking and this is an interesting clash between two fillies which obviously possess plenty of quality. Whether the William Haggas Dawn Approach newcomer PERFECT THOUGHT will have enough about her to give experience away to the first named pair remain to be seen. Perhaps her best chance lies in the fact that the pair who have contested races already were both in thick of things right to the wire whereby their introductions might have taken plenty out of them; we shall see.
Favourite factor: One of the two inaugural 9/4 joint favourites won the race twelve months ago, with the other finishing out of the frame.
6.50: 11 of the last 13 winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-3) which eliminates three of the bottom four runners in the list, taking a jockey claim into account. The pick of the remaining seven entries will hopefully prove to be PATCHWORK, TADWEEN and FAREEQ, the trio being listed in order of preference at the time of writing.
Favourite factor: Seven of the last eleven favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include four (7/2-9/4-11/4**-5/2) winners.
7.25: Horses carrying at least 9-1 have secured nine of the fifteen available toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include five of the six winners at odds of 9/1-9/2-10/3-3/1-11/8. SOLAR CROSS and ARAB MOON make most appeal via the five qualifiers this time around. JOSHUA REYNOLDS might offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings however, especially as John Gosden is the only represented trainer to have saddled a winner of the race thus far, notwithstanding the fact that John’s Nathanial coly is making his handicap debut this evening. That said, Roger Charlton (SOLAR CROSS) brings a recent 45% strike rate into play, seeking his eleventh success during the period.
Favourite factor: The six favourites to date have secured three toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include two (11/8 & 3/1) winners, with market leaders coming to the gig on a hat trick this time around.
7.55: PEPITA is the horse for overnight money with several firms ‘early doors’ this morning and it will be interesting to note if Richard Hannon’s Sir Prancealot filly continues to attract support, especially as according to the official assessor, she has little chance in the contest compared to the likes of PERFECT MADGE and TALLULAH ROSE under these terms and conditions. I consider this a race to watch rather than one to become financially involved, other than the initial outlay of my Placepot permutation on an interesting card. The ‘make up’ of the races suggest that this will be a Placepot dividend well worth winning, especially if a few non-runners affect the place terms of certain races on the card.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Newmarket programme.
8.30: Four-year-olds have won five of the last seven renewals and in a fascinating last leg of our favourite wager, AL NEKSH and FIRNAS should continue the vintage trend between them. We have to take the full fitness level of the later named Charlie Appleby raider on trust (this is only his third assignment in nearly two years) though let’s be honest, Charlie is one of the finest new trainers we have seen for many a year and I cannot believe that he will have left much to work on given the strength of this contest. The fact that AL NEKSH was among the four day decs would surely have left Charlie waiting for another day if he did not have his Dubawi coly ready to rock and roll.
Favourite factor: All eight winners of the Placepot finale have scored at a top price of 9/1, with two (9/4 & 5/4) favourites having prevailed down the years.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Newmarket (July) card on Friday:
4 runners—William Haggas
+ 28 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
52 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Cartmel: £281.20 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 3 unplaced
Chester: £112.00 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced
Doncaster: £20.90 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced
Yarmouth: £ 20.10 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced
Newcastle (July): £23.20 – 8 favourites – 4 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced