SANDOWN – MARCH 10
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £185.70 (7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)
Friday's Placepot permutation at Sandown:
Leg 1 (2.00): 6 (Kastani Beach) & 1 (Centurius)
Leg 2 (2.30): 1 (Azzerti) & 2 (Benechenko)
Leg 3 (3.05): 1 (Rathlin Rose), 5 (Ceasar Milan) & 9 (Renard)
Leg 4 (3.40): 6 (Kayf Adventure), 7 (Billy Broncho) & 5 (Chase End Charlie)
Leg 5 (4.15): 6 (Helium), 4 (Vengeur De Guye) & 5 (Vicangelome)
Leg 6 (4.50): 1 (Mt Clackson) & 2 (Sneaky Feeking)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.00: Seven-year-olds have won four of the last ten renewals, with vintage representatives at 2/1 to extend the trend before the form book is consulted. Six of the last eight winners have carried a maximum burden of 10-12 and putting the stats and facts together produces a short list of CENTURIUS and KASTANI BEACH. The latter named Alderbrook gelding receives plenty of weight from all five rivals, despite having gained gold and silver medals in the last two renewals of this opening event on the card.
Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders have scored alongside two joint favourites via 18 renewals. Fourteen of the twenty jollies have reached the frame (exact science).
Record of the course winner in the field:
1/4—Kastani Beach (good to soft)
2.30: Nicky Henderson has saddled five of the last twelve winners, a stat I have left in for those of you who retain records, with Nicky not being represented on this occasion. Whether it was the threat of AZZERTI being declared here that deterred Nicky I’m not sure though either way, Alan King looks to have a decent chance of improving his Sandown stats which invariable stand up well to close inspection, this year’s ratio offering a 44.4% strike rate, with only Nicky having saddled more winners (seven) at the venue this season. BENECHENKO is the sporting forecast call if you want to play the race that way.
Favourite factor: Four favourites have won via the last twelve renewals. The twelve gold medallists have scored at a top price of 7/1, whilst ten recent market leaders secured toteplacepot positions.
3.05: Paul Nicholls has won four of the last eleven renewals of the Grand Military Gold Cup having secured a hat trick between 2005 and 2007 (all favourites), with Paul saddling six losers in the interim period. Paul saddled his 'second string' to snare the silver medal two ago at odds of 11/2, his 5/4 favourite having finished well down the field. Paul has declared CEASAR MILAN this time around, though RATHLIN ROSE (winner of five of his last nine assignments) poses a definite threat, possibly alongside RENARD if the Venetia Williams raider does not forfeit his chance by being too keen ‘early doors’.
Favourite factor: Favourites have won seven of the last fourteen renewals, though just five of the other thirteen favourites have additionally secured toteplacepot positions during the last eighteen years.
Record of the course winner in the third race:
1/1—Rathlin Rose (soft)
3.40: 13/16 winners in recent years have carried weights of eleven stones or more, whilst six-year-olds have won five of the last nine renewals, despite not always having been represented in the contest. Three of the trio of vintage representatives make some appeal (all qualify via the weight trend), namely KAYF ADVENTURE, BILLY BRONCO and CHASE END CHARLIE (listed in order of preference).
Favourite factor: Two clear market leaders (alongside two joint favourites) have won during the study period, whilst nine of the nineteen jollies have finished in the frame.
4.15: Twelve of the fourteen winners to date have carried weights ranging between 10-11 and 11-9, as have 23 of the 33 horses that have secured toteplacepot positions. The two projected outsiders in the field are the only qualifiers via the weight trend on this occasion, though this self-confessed ‘anorak’ will still offer Placepot permutation chances to course winner HELIUM and VICANGELOME. I have a feeling that this is the race on the card which bookmakers are looking forward to in terms of the layers ‘getting a result’, whereby I am adding VENGEUR DE GUYE into the mix ahead of the three shorter priced runners at the time of writing. Six-year-olds have won four of the last nine contests when represented, stats which I am offering for those of you who keep such details year on year. No vintage raiders have been declared this time around.
Favourite factor: Only five of the sixteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include four winners.
Record of the course winner in the fifth event on the card:
4.50: There should not be a great deal between MR CLARKSON and SNEAKY FEELING both in the betting and at the jamstick from my viewpoint, with Gavin Sheehan watching on from afar aboard Sandhurst Lad who is a stone ‘the wrong way’ with the first named selection if taking the claiming jockey into consideration.
Favourite factor: The two favourites have snared gold and silver medals to date whilst securing Placepot positions.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Sandown card on Friday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
4 runners—Nicky Henderson (7/18 – Profit of 6 points)
3—David Pipe (1/4 – loss of 1 point)
3—Venetia Williams (1/15 – loss of 10 points)
2—Philip Hobbs (1/13 – loss of 10 points)
2—Paul Nicholls (3/22 – loss of 3 points)
+ 29 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
43 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Ayr: £9,887.70 – 6 favourites – 2 winners - 1 placed – 3 unplaced
Leicester: £795.90 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced
Newcastle – No meeting as A/W racing did not commence until May at Gosforth Park