CHELTENHAM – MARCH 18
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £102.70 (6 favourites - 1 winner - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)
Average Placepot dividend (all codes) in 2016 (calendar year): £628.15
Average NH Placepot dividend in 2016: £876.64
Average Cheltenham Placepot dividend in 2016: £236.72 (5 meetings)
Friday's Placepot permutation at Cheltenham:
Leg 1 (1.30): 5 (Footpad), 10 (Sceau Royal) & 4 (Condul De Thaix)
Leg 2 (2.10): 25 (Superb Story), 23 (Wait For Me) & 16 (Starchitect)
Leg 3 (2.50): 14 (Long Dog) & 16 (Barters Hill)
Leg 4 (3.30): 2 (Cue Card) & 4 (Don Cossack)
Leg 5 (4.10): 20 (Paint The Clouds) & 9 (Dark Lover)
Leg 6 (4.50): 9 (Childrens List), 2 (Squouateur) & 20 (Jetstream Jet)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 20p stakes
1.30: If there is a 'dark horse' in this renewal of the Triumph Hurdle it must be Nicky Henderson's raider CONDUL DE THAIX and what makes the declaration of the French import even more interesting, is that Nicky will have literally had dozens of horses that he could have considered for this event at the start of the season. The fact that Nicky has saddled more winners of this race (six in total) than any other trainer adds confidence, especially with the Seven Barrows maestro having secured three of the last seven contests. There is also the point to be made that Nicky served up a 1-2-3 in the race last year! Others to consider in the opening event on the last day of the Festival include FOOTPAD and SCEAU ROYAL. Paul Nicholls also plays a 'hot hand' via four declarations but if I tried to iron out the positives and negatives of that quartet, I would be here all night.
Favourite factor: Five favourites have won during the study period which is not a bad return considering the competitive nature of this event. Ten market leaders have finished in the frame.
Cheltenham record of course winners in the 'Triumph':
2.10: Although ‘only’ backed up by ten placed representatives in the last aseventeen renewals, five-year-olds hold centre stage having won nine contests during the period. The fact that 44 of the last 55 winners were five or six years of age should also sway you towards younger horses! Horses carrying weights of 11-1 or less have won thirteen of the last seventeen renewals and putting the stats and facts together, my ‘short list’ consists of the four horses towards the bottom of the list (accordingly), namely SUPERB STORY, WAIT FOR ME, MODUS and STARCHITECT. If the weight trends are breached this time around, the joker in the pack could prove to be ALL YOURS.
Favourite factor: The last nine winners have scored at 50/1--20/1--20/1--20/1--14/1-12/1--11/1--10/1--10/1, though two of the previous three contests were won by joint favourites. Only three of the last 15 favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include two winners.
Cheltenham record of course winners in the County Hurdle:
2.50: Six-year-olds have won five of the last nine renewals of the 'Albert Bartlett' and the trend should surely be extended by the likes of LONG DOG, BARTERS HILL and BLEUR ET ROUGE. BARTERS HILL is flanked by Willie Mullins raiders who are obvious threats though if you are looking for a longer priced each way option, AURILLAC could reward reward win and place investors. There are not many races during the week where I abstain from 'having an interest' but this could be one such occasion because the front trio I mentioned all have plenty to recommend them in this renewal of a race which has escaped yours truly from a 'winning tipping perspective'.
Favourite factor: Eight of the twelve favourites have secured toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include four winners.
Cheltenham record of course winners in the 'Albert Bartlett':
1/3--Champers On Ice
3.30: I was all over the chances of Vautour and SMAD PLACE for this event from an ante-post perspective but things have gone base over apex and no mistake during the last week. Firstly the weather forecast accurately predicted a good spell of dry weather which has evolved, with SMAD PLACE probably preferring softer ground despite having won a race at Kempton under good conditions earlier in his career. Then Vautour was re-routed to the 'Ryanair' yesterday and though he was very impressive when winning, supposedly justifying the late decision to switch races, Ruby's mount wasn't exactly stopping up the hill and I am certain he would have gone very close to winning the Gold Cup. SMAD PLACE could have been included in my Placepot mix but given the conditions, I now expect CUE CARD and DON CASSACK to have his measure. It would be wonderful to witness a win for Cur Card, especially after Thistlecrack hosed up for the Tizzard team on Thursday.
Favourite factor: Seven of the last thirteen favourites have won the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Eleven of the eighteen jollies have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.
Cheltenham record of course winners in the Gold Cup:
1/3--O 'Faolains Bay
4.10: Last year's beaten (11/4) favourite PAINT THE CLOUDS attempts to go 'two better' having snared the bronze gong twelve months ago. This better ground will suit and with Sam Waley-Cohen in the plate, a toteplacepot position is there for the taking from my viewpoint. There will be plenty of media attention directed towards PACHA DU POLDER for well documented reasons, whilst other to consider include DARK LOVER and (possibly) MENDIP EXPRESS. Last year's winner ON THE FRINGE might represent poor value on faster ground than was in situ this time last year.
Favourite factor: Four favourites have won via the last seventeen contests whilst the figure increases to nine when applying the first three in the market ruling.
Cheltenham record of course winners in the Foxhunters:
1/3--On The Fringe
2/5--Paint The Clouds
4.50: Six-year-olds have won five of the seven renewals, whilst Willie Mullins comes to the gig on a hat trick having secured three of the last five contests. Eight vintage representatives line up this time around, one of which (CHILDRENS LIST) will be saddled by the Irish maestro. Willie complicates things by saddling three other horses, the pick of which might prove to be WHITEOUT. If Willie is to be denied, Gordon Elliott might prove to be the joker, having declared SQUOUATEUR and JETSTREAM JACK with definite claims. WORK IN PROGRESS arguably carries the best hope on behalf of the English contingent.
Favourite factor: Two of the six favourites to date secured toteplacepot positions (one winner).
Cheltenham record of course winners in the 'Martin Pipe':
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Cheltenham card on Friday:
3--Henry De Bromhead
+ 42 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
143 declared runners