NEWBURY – MARCH 24
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £239.10 (1st April meeting last year - 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)
Friday's Placepot permutation at Newbury:
Leg 1 (2.00): 2 (Coastal Tiep), 3 (Reigning Supreme) & 1 (Strong Pursuit)
Leg 2 (2.30): 8 (Howlongisafoot), 4 (Ten Sixty) & 7 (Big Casino)
Leg 3 (3.05): 6 (Ballyheigue Bay) & 8 (Scooby)
Leg 4 (3.40): 4 (Duelling Banjos), 6 (Bells Of Ailsworth) & 5 (Sykes)
Leg 5 (4.10): 3 (I’m A Game Changer) & 5 (Inner Drive)
Leg 6 (4.45): 2 (Man Of Steel) & 8 (Triangular)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.00: Although Paul Nicholls boasts the best record this week of the represented trainers (3/6), his raider COASTAL TIEP is not far enough clear of his main two rivals (REIGNING SUPREME and STRONG PURSUIT) to offer a bet from my viewpoint. From a Placepot perspective, all three runners need to be included in the permutation, given that this is a ‘win only’ contest.
Favourite factor: One of the two market leaders has claimed a Placepot position to date but even then, the 1/3 favourites was obviously expected to win the relevant contest.
Record of the course winner in the opening race:
1/1—Reigning Supreme (soft)
2.30: Both of the trainers who have won this event on two occasions in recent years are represented here, namely Philip Hobbs (TEN SIXTY) and Nigel Twiston-Davies (BIG CASINO). Both horses are included in the (each way) mix but Chris Gordon could have the answer with HOWLONGISAFOOT who was one of 5/5 winners on the day for the trainer recently. Indeed, Chris has sent out eight of his last twelve runners to winning effect!
Favourite factor: Five of the nine favourites have finished in the frame via seven renewals, statistics which include two (9/2 & 11/4) winners.
3.05: Six-year-olds have secured three of the last four contests, whilst five of the last six gold medallists carried a minimum burden of 11-6. Chris Gordon saddles his other runner on the card in this event, with BALLYHEIGUE BAY running out of the ‘superior’ sector of the handicap according to the weight trend. Three six-year-olds are in contention, the best of which could prove to be Graeme McPherson’s recent Kempton winner SCOOBY who deserved to score after some consistent previous efforts, albeit the Dubai Destination gelding will have to improve again to record successive victories.
Favourite factor: Four of the nine market leaders have secured Placepot positions via seven renewals, statistics which include one 7/2 joint favourite.
Record of the course winners in the third event:
1/1—Midnight Glory (soft)
3.40: Seven-year-olds have won four of the last six renewals and the two relevant entries this time around appear to have good chances on behalf of the vintage, namely DUELLING BANJOS and BELLS OF AILSWORTH. The pair is listed in order of preference, though the three pound claimer aboard the latter named Tim Vaughan raider should ensure there is not too much daylight between them at the jamstick. It’s windy enough in Bristol this morning to suggest that any drying ground could aid and abet the chance of SYKES at half decent odds down the road at Newbury.
Favourite factor: Four favourites have won during the last six years, whilst the other winners during that period were returned at 5/1 and 7/2.
4.10: I’M A GAME CHANGR comes to the gig on a hat trick and with trainer Philip Hobbs saddling consistent winners again, Richard Johnson’s mount looks the horse to beat in this ‘dead eight’ contest. Only one of Alan King’s last 34 runners have won, though that has not stopped some of them running well enough from a Placepot perspective whereby INNER DRIVE enters the equation, though very much as the ‘second string’ of my entries.
Favourite factor: Nine of the ten winners during the last decade have scored at a top price of 7/1, statistics which include three successful favourites.
Record of the course winner in the fifth contest on the card:
4.45: Alan Hill saddles his usual two or three winners a season in this (Hunter Chase) sector of the sport, though MAN OF STEEL offers the chance for Alan to record a best ever term here in a race which should not prove difficult to win. Course and distance winner TRIANGULAR might prove to be the danger at the business end of the contest.
Favourite factor: As usual in Hunter Chase events, favourites have a good record having won five renewals during the last decade, with seven gold medallists having scored at a top price of 4/1.
Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:
1/4—Duke Of Lucca (soft)
2/3—Roalco De Farges (good & good to soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newbury card on Friday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
5 runners—Philip Hobbs (5/24 – Profit of 40 points)
3—Caroline Bailey (No previous runners this season)
3—Fergal O’Brien (1/4 – loss of 2 points)
2—Chris Gordon (2/9 – Profit of 3 points)
2—Nicky Henderson (8/39 – loss of 14 points)
2—Alan King (5/23 – loss of 2 points)
2—Dan Skelton (1/19 – loss of 12 points)
2—Tim Vaughan (2/7 – Profit of 9 points)
+ 28 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
49 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
No other corresponding meetings as this was Good Friday twelve months ago