NEWBURY – MARCH 3
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £45.60 (6 favourites – No winners – 4 placed – 2 unplaced)
Friday's Placepot permutation at Newbury:
Leg 1 (2.10): 1 (Most Celebrated) & 2 (Quids In)
Leg 2 (2.40): 2 (Le Breuil) & 1 (Benatar)
Leg 3 (3.15): 1 (Plaisir D’Amour), 2 (Red Devil Star) & 3 (Greybougg)
Leg 4 (3.50): 3 (Beggars Cross), 2 (Behind The Wire) & 1 (Millanisi Boy)
Leg 5 (4.20): 2 (Debece), 3 (Reilley’s Minor) & 6 (Bendomingo)
Leg 6 (4.55): 8 (Iwishicould), 4 (Thomas Shelby) & 11 (Globalisation)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.10: An unusual start to the analysis today as I note for the umpteenth time down the years that there is a distinct lack of previous course winners at Newbury, with just the one ‘qualifier’ this time around. Just an observation on the NH front you understand. Upwards and onward to suggest that although Dinsdale might run into a place again, though this opening event looks best left to the pair of penalised scorers (especially from a Placepot perspective), namely MOST CELEBRATED and QUIDS IN. Given the stats offered in the ‘favourite factor’ below, I will move on to race two without wishing to split the pair of ‘selections’ from a win perspective.
Favourite factor: Nine of the last twenty favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three winners. 14 of the last 18 winners scored at odds of 8/1 or less though that said, outsiders come to the gig on a hat trick this time around, the last two gold medallists having scored at 25/1 & 16/1.
2.40: Five-year-olds lead the six-year-olds 9-4 via the fourteen renewals to date and the younger set will dominate proceedings here again, especially with LE BREUIL and BENATAR having been declared. As in the first contest, I’m more than happy just to let this pair carry the weight of our Placepot hopes between them, not wishing to become embroiled in a dilemma in terms of which one might beat the other. It remains to be seen if the spill at Ludlow will affect the confidence of WOODFORT though either way, the Twiston-Davies representative might require more than six pounds at this stage of his career to finished in front of the afore mentioned duo..
Favourite factor: Ten of the fourteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include four gold medallists.
3.15: Six of the last seven winners have carried a minimum burden of 11-7 which is a little disappointing to discover because I had short listed Keep Moving before looking at the numbers. Vision Des Champs would have been added into the mix with a run under his belt but I guess the other three qualifiers will carry my cash, namely PLAISIR D’AMOUR, RED DEVIL STAR and GREYBOUGG, the trio being listed in order of preference at the time of writing.
Favourite factor: Eight clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won via the last eighteen renewals. 11 of the 20 'jollies' have reached the frame during the study period, using an exact (place) science as you will always find on these pages.
3.50: Eight-year-olds have won seven of the sixteen renewals to date, though seven-year-olds have weighed in with three victories during the last eight years. Seven winners during the last decade carried 11-2 or more. BEGGARS CROSS and MILLANISI BOY represent the two vintages with chances, though six-year-old BEHIND THE WIRE could prove to be the joker in the pack.
Favourite factor: Seven of the sixteen favourites to date have claimed toteplacepot positions (two winners--within the last eight years). That said, all sixteen winners have been returned at odds of 12/1 or less, as have all forty horses which have claimed toteplacepot positions.
Record of the course winner in the field:
1/2—Get Involved (soft)
4.20: Six-year-olds come to the gig having won five of the last seven renewals, whilst it's also worth noting that although the trio of six-year-olds were beaten four years ago, two relevant raiders snared silver and bronze medals at 12/1 and 11/2. Three of the eight entries represent the vintage this time around, with DEBECE, REILLEY’S MINOR and BENDOMINGO all boasting realistic Placepot claims at the very least.
Favourite factor: Favourites have won five of the fifteen renewals to date, whilst 10 of the 19 market leaders finished in the frame.
4.55: There is a distinct lack of winning numbers via the form figures in the Placepot finale, though GLOBALISATION bucked that ‘trend’ last time out to a fashion having ‘dead heated’ at Ffos Las on good ground. The worry down here in the south west is that by the time this race is contested, conditions will be far from ‘good’ with hefty showers already having moved into the Bristol area. If the forecast proves to be correct, I’m afraid that Saturday’s card could be in danger of being washed away. Upwards and onward positively by adding THOMAS SHELBY and IWISHICOULD into today’s Placepot mix.
Favourite factor: Two of the three market leaders have finished in the frame via two renewals, though we still await the first successful favourite from a win perspective.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newbury card on Friday – followed by their five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued:
5—runners—Jonjo O’Neill (0/12 this season)
4—Nigel Twiston-Davies (1/15 – loss of 11 points)
3—Warren Greatrex (2/14 – loss of 3 points)
3—Nicky Henderson (8/34 – loss of 9 points)
2—Rebecca Curtis (2/14 – loss of 4 points)
2—Robin Dickin (0/3)
2—Alex Hales (No previous runners)
2—Nigel Hawke (0/2)
2—Philip Hobbs (4/19 – Profit of 42 points)
2—Alan King (5/19 – Profit of 2 points)
2—Tom Lacey (1/3 – Profit of 3 points)
2—Charlie Mann (0/4)
2—Gary Moore (0/15)
2—Neil Mulholland (2/4 – Profit of 4 points)
2—Ben Pauling (2/9 – loss of 3 points)
2—Michael Scudamore (No previous runners)
2—Tim Vaughan (1/5 – Profit of 8 points)
2—Dai Williams (0/1)
+ 23 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
66 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Doncater: £ 466.90 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced
Lingfield: £48.40 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 1 unplaced
Newcastle had not started staging all weather racing this time last year