Placepot Pointers

Placepot pointers – Friday May 12

CHESTER – MAY 12

 

Corresponding toteplacepot dividends during the last six years:

2016: £22.70 (6 favourites - 1 winner - 4 placed - 1 unplaced)

2015: £900.10 (6 favourites: No winners - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)

2014: £545.20 (7 favourites: 2 winners & 5 unplaced)

2013: £129.80 (6 favourites: 2 winners & 4 unplaced)

2012: £5,565.50 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

2011: £64.10 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)

Average Placepot dividend: £1,204.57 - 37 favourites - 10 winners - 9 placed - 18 unplaced

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Chester: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 9 (El Hayem), 11 (Michele Strogoff) & 10 (Calder Prince)

Leg 2 (2.25): 4 (Cliffs Of Moher) & 3 (Bay Of Poets)

Leg 3 (3.00): 3 (Rich And Famous), 2 (Tomily) & 5 (Rosabelle)

Leg 4 (3.35): 6 (Midterm), 8 (US Army Ranger) & 7 (Red Verdon)

Leg 5 (4.05): 4 (Gymnaste) & 3 (Desert Rain)

Leg 6 (4.35): 5 (Judicial) & 2 (Double Up)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.50: Four-year-olds have won seven of the last 14 renewals (clean sweep 1-2-3 in two of the last nine years - forecast landed two years ago), whilst 12 of the last 14 winners have carried weights of 8-10 or more.  If we bring the stats right up to date however, five-year-olds have secured five of the last seven renewals, with the two vintages having dominated the event down the years.  Accordingly, it's difficult to comprehend why ‘only’ an aggregate of five horses contest the race, with vintage representatives being around the 13/8 mark to land the spoils between them before the form book is taken into account.  Hopefully, EL HAYEM, MICHELE STRONGOFF and CALDER PRINCE will emerge from the pack to dominate at the business end of proceedings.  The trio is listed in order of preference especially with Calder Prince drawn wide.

Favourite factor: Six favourites have scored during the last 19 years, whilst eight of the 14 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions via the last twelve renewals.

Draw factor (seven and a half furlongs):

4-2-1 (11 ran-good)

5-14-8 (8 ran-soft)

1-13-8 (10 ran-soft)

2-1-13 (10 ran-good to soft)

3-1-6 (9 ran-soft)

12-5-15 (14 ran-good to firm)

7-12-13 (11 ran-good to soft)

6-16-10 (14 ran--good to firm)

6-4-1 (11 ran-good)

5-6-3 (12 ran-good)

10-4-8 (9 ran-good to soft)

13-5-9-10 (18 ran-good to soft)

1-4-3-7 (18 ran-good to soft)

4-3-2-10 (16 ran-good to firm)

2-14-3-17 (17 ran-good to firm)

16-6-5-7 (18 ran-good to firm)

3-1-13-9 (17 ran-good)

7-5-4-13 (17 ran-good to firm)

11-10-4-14 (18 ran-good to firm)

Chester record of course winners in the opening event:

3/4—Hillbilly Boy (2 x good & good to soft – won this race last year)

3/5—Sound Advice (3 x good – 4th in the race last year)

1/2—Ice Slice (good)

1/12—Gabrial’s Kaka (good – 2nd in the race last year)

1/11—Intransigent (good to soft)

 

2.25 (Dee Stakes): Aidan O’Brien has won this Group 3 event five times via the last ten renewals in which Aidan has been represented, with lone entry CLIFFS OF MOHER having been given the green light on this occasion.  Aidan’s two successful favourites yesterday took his tally of market leaders to 6/7 on day two of the meeting during the last seven years, a stat you might want to retain for next year. Aidan’s record on third day (during the last six years) stands at 4/6 which bodes well enough for the chance of CLIFFS OF MOHER. Just eight three-year-olds have represented Charlie Appleby at Chester in recent times (two winners) whereby his declaration of BAY OF POETS catches the eye, the trainer having saddled seven of his last 24 runners to winning effect, results which have produced 13 points of level stake profit.

Favourite factor: Seven market leaders have obliged during the study period, whilst 11 recent market leaders have reached the frame.  12 of the last 15 winners were returned at odds of 8/1 or less.

Chester record of course winners in the second race on the card:

1/1—Max Zorin

 

3.00: Ten of the last fifteen winners have carried weights of 8-13 or more and the trend could be extended here with four of the ten runners hailing from the ‘superior’ sector of the handicap.  The trio is listed in marginal order of preference as RICH AND FAMOUS (drawn 8/10), TOMILY (5) and ROSABELLE (1).  The latter named Mark Johnston raider sits just below the ‘superior’ weight barrier, but what is 16 ounces between friends?  Simmie might have entered the equation but for his ‘car park’ stall position.

Favourite factor: Five favourites have won of late, whilst 16 of the last 19 winners scored at 8/1 or less.  Ten of the last nineteen market leaders have finished in the frame.

Draw factor (five furlongs):

3-1 (7 ran-good)

8-7 (5 ran-soft)

4-1 (6 ran-soft)

8-5-9 (10 ran-good to soft)

3-5-6 (9 ran-soft)

5-3-2 (8 ran-good to firm)

5-3 (6 ran-good to soft)

1-7-2 (10 ran--good to firm)

7-3-9 (8 ran-good)

3-6-1 (8 ran-good)

1-5-9 (12 ran-good to firm)

4-6-2 (10 ran-good to soft)

7-8-14 (15 ran-soft)

8-1-6 (15 ran-good)

11-1-5 (10 ran-good to firm)

1-7-4 (14 ran-good to firm)

4-1-5 (12 ran-good)

5-2-3 (12 ran-good to firm)

5-7-2 (13 ran-good)

Chester record of course winners in the third race:

Your first 30 days for just £1

2/3—Rosebelle (good & good to soft)

1/1—Partitia (good)

1/1—Copper Knight (good to soft)

 

3.35 ‘Ormonde Stakes’: Four-year-olds have won six of the last ten renewals (the vintage was not represented on one occasion), with MIDTERM, US ARMY RANGER and RED VERNON seemingly holding the relevant call this year.  The trio is listed in order of preference, albeit marginally.  No trainer has won this race more often than Sir Michael Stoute (MIDTERM) who has saddled the winner six times, the first of which was with Saddlers' Hall back in 1992. That stat is the main reason that Midterm is given the call this time around.

Favourite factor: Eight market leaders have rewarded investors during the last 19 years.  16 of the last 18 winners of this event have been returned at 7/2 or less.  ‘Only’ six of the eleven market leaders in as many years have claimed Placepot positions though to be entirely fair, many of the favourites lost out when contesting 'win only' events.  The fact that twelve runners have been declared on this occasion defies belief!

Chester record of course winners in the fourth contest:

1/4—Cymro (good to soft)

1/1—Red Verdon (good)

1/1—US Army Ranger (good)

 

4.05: If you fancy a tilt at the Placepot on Friday, you might be influenced by £5,565.50 dividend on this corresponding card back in 2012.  This race made all the difference that day, the frame being filled by horses returned at 25/1-28/1-33/1.  Three warm favourites won on the Placepot card (11/8-11/10-Evens), whilst five of the six win and placed horses in the other two races were returned at a top price of 15/2, the other position being claimed by a 10/1 chance.  The evidence is clear in that you do not require many races in the Placepot sector offering shock results to produce a great dividend. All that having been said, this renewal does not look as though it will extinguish too many Placepot units with GYMNASTE and DESERT RAIN having been declared.

Favourite factor: Eight of the last 16 favourites have won this event, whilst six of the last 11 market leaders have finished in the frame.

Draw factor (seven furlongs):

4-6-2 (8 ran-good)

7-3-2 (8 ran-soft)

2-7 (7 ran-soft)

7-9-2 (8 ran-good to soft)

2-4-3 (8 ran-soft)

4-1-11 (12 ran-good to firm)

3-9-8 (9 ran-good to soft)

12-4-6 (12 ran--good to firm)

10-3-4 (10 ran-good)

4-5-13 (13 ran-good)

3-5 (5 ran-good to soft)

5-2-7 (10 ran-good to soft)

7-2 (6 ran-good to soft)

6-1-9 (9 ran-good to firm)

5-4 (7 ran-good to firm)

3-7-10 (10 ran-good to firm)

1-3 (7 ran-good)

2-1-9 (10 ran-good to firm)

4-1-6 (8 ran-good)

 

4.35: Five-year-olds had won the first three renewals before a double figure (ten-year-old) raider reader its ugly head to prevent total domination via just the four contests thus far.  JUDICIAL stands out from the crowd via this year’s vintage representatives with the recent Pontefract winner looking to extend his unbeaten record (albeit 1/1) at Chester this afternoon.  The main threat should be forthcoming from DOUBLE UP whose best form would take the Roger Varian representative mighty close on this grade/company.  Both horses are well boxed (three and two respectively in a ten strong field) providing they break on terms in this five furlong dash.

Favourite factor: Three of the four favourites have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include one (9/4) winner.

Draw factor (seven furlongs):

5-1-7 (8 ran-good to soft)

3-4-6 (9 ran-good)

3-2 (7 ran-good to firm)

6-7 (7 ran-soft)

Chester record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Judicial (good)

 

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Chester card on Friday – followed by their ratios at the track this season (Wednesday/Thursday) + profits/losses accrued:

6 runners—Tom Dascombe (1/11 – loss of 7 points)

5—Andrew Balding (1/5 – Profit of 12 points)

4—Ed Dunlop (1/2 – Profit of 2 points)

4—Richard Fahey (0/4)

4—John Patrick Shanahan (0/3)

4—Sir Michael Stoute (1/2 – Profit of 1 point)

2—Michael Appleby (0/1)

2—Robert Cowell (No runners)

2—Tony Coyle (0/1)

2—Keith Dalgleish (0/1)

2—Brian Ellison (No runners)

2—John Gosden (1/5 – loss of 2 points)

2—Richard Hannon (1/3 – Profit of 1 point)

2—Aidan O’Brien (2/6 – level on the week)

2—Hugo Palmer (0/3)

2—Saeed Bin Suroor (0/1)

2—Roger Varian (0/2)

2—Ian Williams (0/4)

+ 23 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

74 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ascot: £897.00 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Nottingham: £6.40 – 7 favourites – 4 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

Ripon: £915.10 – 6 favourites – No winners – 3 placed – 3 unplaced

Lingfield: Last year’s meeting was staged on the A/W track – Turf this year

Market Rasen: £65.30 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

 

Your first 30 days for just £1