YORK – MAY 13
Corresponding toteplacepot dividends for the last five years:
2015: £311.00 (7 favourites: 1 winner - 3 placed - 3 unplaced)
2014: £16.00 (6 favourites: 4 winners & 2 placed)
2013: £117.20 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)
2012: £12,695.00 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)
2011: £176.30 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)
Average dividend: £2,663.10 - Favourites stats - 31 in total - 12 winners - 8 placed - 11 unplaced
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at York:
Leg 1 (2.20): 2 (El Astronaute), 6 (Ayresome Angel) & 1 (Teresar)
Leg 2 (2.55): 2 (Boater) & 8 (Perfect Madge)
Leg 3 (3.30): 8 (Thetis) & 4 (Memoralia)
Leg 4 (4.05): 3 (Flying Officer) & 1 (Clever Cookie)
Leg 5 (4.40): 4 (Top Tug), 7 (Oasis Fantasy) & 9 (Blue Hussar)
Leg 6 (5.10): 1 (Mambo Paradise), 2 (Secret Hint) & 3 (Invoke)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.20: 19/32 horses to have gained toteplacepot positions (via nine renewals to date) have carried weights of 8-13 or more, with six qualifying runners to consider this time around (before jockey claims are taken into account) in a fifteen strong field. EL ASTRONAUT, AYRESOME ANGEL and TERESAR catch the eye, with the overnight reserve nomination being awarded to EXCESSABLE.
Favourite factor: Two of the eight market leaders have secured a toteplacepot position to date (one winner), taking into account that the 2012 favourite was withdrawn before a new market could be formed.
Draw factor (five furlongs):
10-8-5-2 (18 ran-good to firm)
8-2-9-12 (19 ran-good)
17-18-14-9 (17 ran-soft)
17-4-5-6 (18 ran-good)
4-6-3-16 (19 ran-good to firm)
1-12-6 (11 ran-good to firm)
15-3-5 (13 ran-good to soft)
2-5-10 (11 ran-good to firm)
12-3-10 (11 ran-good)
2.55: Ten of the eleven winners have scored at a top price of 7/1 though on the negative side, eleven different trainers have saddled the winners in as many years. Upwards and onward in positive style by nominating BOATER to follow up after her incredible effort on the first day of school seven weeks ago at Kempton. Sire Helmet has started his career in incredible fashion and with Mark Johnston having secured a 2,956/1 four timer on last year's corresponding card, Mark's first runner on the final day of the meeting is the first name on the team sheet. AMLAK was thrown in a quite a deep end at Ascot at the first time of asking and is entitled to come for that experience, whilst PERFECT MADGE completes my trio against the other eight contenders in a fascinating contest. BOATER is a sizable filly who looked as though she could take on colts, let alone take in future races (like this one) against her own gender.
Favourite factor: Five of the 12 favourites (eleven renewals) have obliged to date, whilst seven market leaders secured toteplacepot positions.
Draw factor (five furlongs):
7-2-6 (11 ran-good to firm)
11-10-7 (13 ran-good)
6-8-2 (11 ran-soft)
9-1-6 (11 ran-good)
7-6-5 (9 ran-good to firm)
9-6 (7 ran-good to firm)
9-11-12 (12 ran-good to soft)
9-10-7 (9 ran-good to firm)
9-6-1 (10 ran-good)
5-6 (7 ran-soft)
4-1-3 (9 ran-good to soft)
3.30: Different trainers have claimed victories via ten renewals during the last eleven years which does little for confidence, especially with weight and vintage trends not affecting this contest. Apart from the Mark Johnston extravaganza last year which was mentioned earlier in dispatches, Sir Michael Stoute has dominated the final day of the meeting in recent years. Michael has declared THETIS this time around, with connections almost definitely having most to fear from the Jeremy Noseda raider NEMORALIA. This pair are clear of their rivals via official ratings, albeit CZABO looks sure to give of her best with the Channon team in good form at the time of writing.
Favourite factor: 21 of the last 24 horses to have claimed toteplacepot positions have been returned at odds of 9/1 or less, with eight of the eleven favourites finishing in the frame (three winners).
Draw factor (eight furlongs):
3-7-4 (10 ran-good to firm)
12-3-1 (14 ran-good)
2-4-5 (9 ran-soft)
5-3 (7 ran-good)
9-3-7 (8 ran-good to firm)
3-1 (5 ran-good to firm)
10-7 (7 ran-good to soft)
7-3 (7 ran-good to firm)
2-5 (5 ran-good)
5-4 (6 ran-soft)
4.05: Regular readers will know that I am not a fan of ‘cup races’ and I will simply be looking to get through the toteplacepot leg without placing another wager. The last time I backed a winner in this type of race was when in short trousers, with a man in a shady raincoat and trilby noting the name of the said beast on a cigarette packet! CLEVER COOKIE does not appear to know how to run a bad race, though it looks as though Peter Niven's eight-year-old will have to settle for the silver medal again, the (fast) ground seemingly having gone against the gelding during the last 24 hours. John Gosden has his team in tip top form and FLYING OFFICER will probably adopt the villainous role as far as Peter and connections are concerned on this occasion.
Favourite factor: 12 of the 19 favourites have finished in the frame, whilst six market leaders have secured the gold rosette during the study period.
York record of runners in the 'Yorkshire Cup':
4.40: Five-year-olds have won six of the last nine renewals (four-year-olds have won the other three contests), whilst horses carrying weights of 9-1 or less have won eight of the last twelve contests. The only three ‘qualifiers’ this time with ticks in both of the vintage/weight trend boxes are listed in order of preference as TOP TUG, OASIS FANTASY and BLUE HUSSAR. TOP TUG finished sixth last year when sent off as a joint favourite when representing Sir Michael Stoute's yard, though Adam Kirby's mount now hails from Alan King's in form stable. Four-year-old raider BARSANTI represents the vintage which is coming to the gig on a four timer on this occasion.
Favourite factor: Ten of the nineteen market leaders have reached the frame during the study period, stats which includes five winning favourites.
York record of runners in the fifth event on the card:
5.10: Four and five-year-olds have (equally) shared all six Placepot postitions to date, whilst horses carrying 9-2 or more have snared four of the said positions, statistics which include both (7/2* & 11/4*) winners. My trio from the five 'qualifiers' in the Placepot finale are listed as MAMBO PARADISE, SECRET HINT and INVOKE.
Favourite factor: Both favourites have prevailed thus far.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the York card on Friday:
+ 35 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
76 declared runners
Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Aintree: £51.90 (7 favourites - 3 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)
Nicky Henderson secured an 8/1 double on last year's card - 3 runners on Friday
Hamilton: £1,892.10 (7 favourites - No winners - 2 placed - 5 unplaced)
Keith Dalgleish secured a 48/1 double twelve months ago - 9 runners on Friday
Newbury:£66.90 (6 favourites - 1 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)
Newmarket: £43.80 (7 favourites - 3 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)
Juvenile strike rates of represented trainers at York during the last five years for Friday's 4.50 contest:
7%--Richard Hannon (Amlak & Stormy Clouds)
6%--Mark Johnston (Boater & Love Oasis)
4%--Michael Easterby (Carlton Frankie)
7%--David O'Meara (Coolfitch)
No winners - 0/4--Scott Dixon (Khelly's Edge)
No winners - 0/7--James Given (Mightaswellsmile)
16%--Kevin Ryan (Perfect Madge)
11%--Ann Duffield (Twizzle)
8%--Richard Fahey (Vona)