YORK – MAY 19
Corresponding toteplacepot dividends for the last six years:
2016: £217.60 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)
2015: £311.00 (7 favourites: 1 winner - 3 placed - 3 unplaced)
2014: £16.00 (6 favourites: 4 winners & 2 placed)
2013: £117.20 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)
2012: £12,695.00 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)
2011: £176.30 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)
Average dividend: £2,255.52 - Favourites stats - 37 in total - 14 winners - 9 placed - 14 unplaced
Friday's Placepot permutation at York:
Leg 1 (2.20): 11 (Maggies Angel), 9 (Izzy Bizu) & 5 (Faithful Promise)
Leg 2 (2.55): 3 (Dancing Breeze), 5 (On Her Toes) & 7 (Sibilance)
Leg 3 (3.30): 3 (Dartmouth), 6 (Muntahaa) & 1 (Clever Cookie)
Leg 4 (4.05): 5 (Gibbs Hill) & 4 (Southdown Lad)
Leg 5 (4.35): 3 (Carolinae), 1 (Shypen) & 8 (Nouvelli Dancer)
Leg 6 (5.05): 3 (Justanotherbottle), 7 (Savannah’s Dream) & 9 (Computable)
Suggested stake: 486 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.20: Ten of the twelve winners have scored at a top price of 7/1 though on the negative side, only Richard Fahey has saddled two winners to date. The last of those was his 33/1 gold medallist Vona twelve months ago, with MAGGIES ANGEL having been given the green light by the trainer this time around. Mark Johnston secured a 2,956/1 four timer on the corresponding card two years ago, and his two outsiders IZZY BIZU and FAITHFUL PROMISE are added into the mix. NEOLA receives the reserve nomination.
Favourite factor: Five of the 13 favourites (twelve renewals) have obliged to date, whilst eight market leaders secured toteplacepot positions.
Draw factor (five furlongs):
3-2-4 (11 ran-good to firm)
7-2-6 (11 ran-good to firm)
11-10-7 (13 ran-good)
6-8-2 (11 ran-soft)
9-1-6 (11 ran-good)
7-6-5 (9 ran-good to firm)
9-6 (7 ran-good to firm)
9-11-12 (12 ran-good to soft)
9-10-7 (9 ran-good to firm)
9-6-1 (10 ran-good)
5-6 (7 ran-soft)
4-1-3 (9 ran-good to soft)
2.55: Different trainers have claimed victories via eleven renewals during the last twelve years which does little for confidence, especially with weight and vintage trends not affecting this contest. That said, DANCING BREEZE (John Gosden) and ON HER TOES (William Haggas) hail from stable which have already posted winners at the meeting this week and their chances are respected. Ralph Beckett has a winning way when handling fillies and I doubt that SIBILANCE will be far away at the business end of proceedings.
Favourite factor: 23 of the last 26 horses to have claimed toteplacepot positions have been returned at odds of 9/1 or less, with nine of the twelve favourites finishing in the frame (four winners).
Draw factor (eight furlongs):
1-7 – 7 ran-good to firm)
3-7-4 (10 ran-good to firm)
12-3-1 (14 ran-good)
2-4-5 (9 ran-soft)
5-3 (7 ran-good)
9-3-7 (8 ran-good to firm)
3-1 (5 ran-good to firm)
10-7 (7 ran-good to soft)
7-3 (7 ran-good to firm)
2-5 (5 ran-good)
5-4 (6 ran-soft)
3.30: Regular readers will know that I am not a fan of ‘cup races’ and I will simply be looking to get through the toteplacepot leg without placing another wager. The last time I backed a winner in this type of race was when in short trousers, with a man in a shady raincoat and trilby noting the name of the said beast on a cigarette packet! Last year’s winner CLEVER COOKIE does not appear to know how to run a bad race (whatever the conditions), though it looks as though connections of Peter Niven's nine-year-old warrior will have to settle for place money, with the likes of MUNTAHAA and DARTMOUTH having been entered this year.
Favourite factor: 12 of the 20 favourites have finished in the frame, whilst six market leaders have secured the gold rosette during the study period.
York record of runners in the 'Yorkshire Cup':
4/8—Clever Cookie (good to firm – good – good to soft – soft)
4.05: Five-year-olds have won six of the last ten renewals (four-year-olds have won the other four contests), whilst horses carrying weights of 9-1 or less have won nine of the last thirteen contests. Two of the four-year-old ‘qualifiers’ this time with ticks in both of the vintage/weight trend boxes are listed in order of preference as GIBBS HILL and SOUTHDOWN LAD.
Favourite factor: Eleven of the twenty market leaders have reached the frame during the study period, stats which includes six winning favourites.
4.35: Five-year-olds lead the four-year-olds 5-3 via just nine available Placepot positions to date. Charlie Fellowes (four of his last six runners have won) saddles the lone five-year-old in the field, namely CAROLINAE with Ryan Moore noted having been booked to ride. Others for the mix include SHYPEN and NOUVELLI DANCER whose trainer David Griffiths is also in sparkling form right now.
Favourite factor: The first two favourites prevailed before last year’s third market leader was sunk without (Placepot) trace.
York record of runners in the fifth event on the card:
1/3—Lil Sophella (good to firm)
5.05: 21/35 horses to have gained toteplacepot positions (via ten renewals to date) have carried weights of 8-13 or more, with seven qualifying runners to consider this time around (before jockey claims are taken into account) in a fouteen strong field. JUSTANOTHERBOTTLE, SANANNAH’S DREAM and COMPUTABLE get the vote.
Favourite factor: Two of the nine market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions to date (one winner), taking into account that the 2012 favourite was withdrawn before a new market could be formed.
Draw factor (five furlongs):
15-9-3 (13 ran-good to firm)
10-8-5-2 (18 ran-good to firm)
8-2-9-12 (19 ran-good)
17-18-14-9 (17 ran-soft)
17-4-5-6 (18 ran-good)
4-6-3-16 (19 ran-good to firm)
1-12-6 (11 ran-good to firm)
15-3-5 (13 ran-good to soft)
2-5-10 (11 ran-good to firm)
12-3-10 (11 ran-good)
York record of runners in the Placepot finale:
1/1—Angel Meadow (good)
1/2—Tahoo (good to firm)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the York card on Friday – followed by Wednesday/Thursday winners + profits/losses accrued:
6 runners—Richard Fahey (1/14 – winner at 5/1)
5—Mark Johnston (1/6 – winner at 10/1)
3—Ralph Beckett (0/2)
3—Sir Michael Stoute (0/4)
2—Charlie Appleby (0/5)
2—Michael Appleby (0/1)
2—Michael Bell (0/1)
2—Karl Burke (0/1)
2—Keith Dalgleish (0/1)
2—Tom Dascombe (0/1)
2—Tom Easterby (0/6)
2—James Given (0/1)
2—John Gosden (1/3 – winner at 4/7*)
2—David O’Meara (2/12—winners at 25/1 & 20/1)
2—Kevin Ryan (0/9)
2—Roger Varian (0/4)
+ 33 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
74 runners stood their ground at the time of writing
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Hamilton: £17.20 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 1 unplaced
Newbury: £218.30 – 6 favourites – 1 winner & 5 unplaced
Newmarket: £3,103.80 – 7 favourites – No winners – 1 placed – 6 unplaced
Aintree: £51.90 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced