PONTEFRACT – MAY 27
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £20.50 (8 favourites – 4 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced)
Friday's Placepot permutation at Pontefract:
Leg 1 (6.30): 3 (Mon Beau Visage), 8 (Interlink), 12 (Whitkirk) & 6 (Be Kool)
Leg 2 (7.00): 5 (Pumblechook), 2 (Mutadaffeq) & 11 (Mysterial)
Leg 3 (7.30): 5 (Rufus King) & 1 (Havana Star)
Leg 4 (8.00): 2 (Tumblewind), 8 (Grandad’s World) & 4 (Stanghow)
Leg 5 (8.30): 6 (Babamunchkin) & 7 (Bonnie Arlene)
Leg 6 (9.00): 7 (Romanticism) & 2 (Benjamin Thomas)
Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
6.30: Four-year-olds have won five of the ten races contested during the last eleven years, whilst eight gold medallists carried nine stones or more. Vintage representatives completly dominated the finish last year, two of the three horses filling the frame carrying the relevant weights. INTERLINK (drawn 6/14 – low numbers best at Pontefract) is close enough to the rail to figure prominently, whilst others to consider include MON BEAU VISAGE (2) and BE COOL (11). Brian Ellison’s last named raider is high enough in the stall numbers though as this race is over a mile, Cam Hardie has enough time to negotiate the best route for the Approve gelding. WHITKIRK (9) receives the reserve nomination.
Favourite factor: Nine of the last twelve favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include four successful market leaders.
Pontfract record of course winners in the opening event:
1/3—Still On Top (good)
2/11--Talent Scout (good & good to firm)
7.00: Five of the last six winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-1, whilst four-year-olds have won four of the last nine contests. PUMBLECHOOK and MUTADAFFEQ appear to be the pick of the four-year-olds with the first named runner making his debut for the Mark Johnston team following a gelding operation. A course and distance winner on fast ground already, PUMBLECHOOK looks the value for money each way call in the contest from my viewpoint. Front line contender MYSTERIAL is well enough housed in trap three to lead these a merry dance under the prevailing conditions, especially with Declan Carroll’s horses running well at this moment in time.
Favourite factor: Favourites of one description or another have claimed seven of the last nine contests, whilst seven of the last thirteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.
Pontefract record of course winners in the second race:
1/1—Pumblechook (good to firm)
1/3—Ingleby Hollow (good to firm)
1/3—Mysterial (good to firm)
7.30: It’s not often that I highlight a particular bookmaker for being ‘out on a limb’ regarding a price (especially in juvenile events), though that is the case with Bet365 this morning as they offer Mark Johnston’s RUFUS KING (the stable won the race twelve months ago) at 5/1 with just 3/1 chalked up by another layer in a ‘short field’ contest. It’s worth noting that Mark’s Iffraaj colt receives four pounds from the top three in the list, two of which are trained by Richard Fahey which makes the race anything but easy to assess. Both of Richard’s youngsters won on debut but were beaten at the second time of asking, whereby I might desert the pair in favour of HAVANA STAR who was a decent winner at Beverley despite showing obvious inexperience. Connections successfully took the same route with a Beverley winner in this race just two years ago. New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses qualify from each way/Placepot perspectives.
Favourite factor: Eight renewals had slipped by since the last favourite obliged before last year’s 3/10 market leader scored for Mark Johnston. Six of the last eight market leaders have finished in the frame, whilst horses returned at a top price of 9/2 have secured seven of the ten contests.
8.00: STANGHOW has a stall ten position to overcome if the Antony Britain raider is to retain his crown. Carrying five pounds more on this occasion, I could still fancy the five-year-old to become competitive if avoiding traffic problems, especially as his last two victories were gained in different ways, coming from off the pace in this event last year, whilst subsequently making all to win at Thirsk. His two previous victories were gainer either way as well which suggests a fast break form his wide draw is not totally essential. Those drawn nearer the rail might be led home by the likes of GRANDAD’S WORLD (6/12 – unbeaten is two assignments here) and TUMBLEWIND (3 – dropped in grade).
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 7/2 market leader was ‘short headed’ by Stanghow who scored at odds of 12/1.
Pontefract record of course winners in the fourth contest:
1/3—Highly Sprung (good to firm)
2/2—Grandad’s World (good & good to soft)
2/3—Oriental Relation (2 x good to firm)
2/9—Silvanus (good to firm & soft)
8.30: Three-year-olds have won seven of the last nine renewals whereby it is slightly surprising that just three vintage raiders have been declared this time around. BABAMUNCHKIN is preferred to BONNIE ARLENE and NAVAJO THUNDER.
Favourite factor: Three winning favourites have been recorded via ten renewals during the last eleven years, with three of the last seven market leaders having claimed Placepot positions.
9.00: Ignore the 5/2 trade press quote about ROMANTICISM who is likely to go off nearer the 6/5 mark if early interest is maintained. If you are not convinced that the two quotes are different enough to make you sit up and take notice, the differential is similar to a horse which is backed from 5/1 to 2/1. Sir Michael Stoute’s raider is the first name on the team sheet accordingly, followed by BENJAMIN THOMAS representing John Quinn who (seemingly) carries northern hopes in the finale.
Favourite factor: Just two contests to report to date which were won by the 13/8 and even money market leaders.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Pontefract card on Friday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
6 runners—David O’Meara (1/7 – loss of 1 point)
5—Mick Easterby (2/9 – level on the year)
5—Richard Fahey (2/17 – loss of 12 points)
4—Michael Appleby (0/3)
4—Mark Johnston (1/8 – loss of 4 points)
3—Kevin Ryan (0/8)
2—Declan Carroll (0/2)
2—Ivan Furtado (No runners)
2—Richard Guest (2/6 – Profit of 25 points)
2—Lynn Siddall (No runners)
2—Karen Tutty (0/1)
+ 24 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
61 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Bath: £367.30 – 7 favourites – 4 winners & 3 unplaced
Goodwood: £865.90 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced
Haydock: £68.10 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 placed
Musselburgh: £84.80 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced
Worcester: £601.60 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced