MUSSELBURGH – MAY 5
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £285.80 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)
Friday's Placepot permutation at Musselburgh:
Leg 1 (2.00): 4 (Flawlessly), 1 (Hamidans Girl) & 5 (Jorvik Prince)
Leg 2 (2.30): 3 (Shobrom) & 4 (Faithful Promise)
Leg 3 (3.00): 4 (Atteq) & 1 (Thomas Cranmer)
Leg 4 (3.30): 1 (Green Light), 2 (Corton Lad) & 3 (Falcon’s Fire)
Leg 5 (4.00): 1 (Election Day) & 3 (Euro Nightmare)
Leg 6 (4.30): 8 (Tadaawol), 7 (Tavener) & 4 (Vallarta)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.00: Seven of the ten winners during the last eleven years have carried a minimum weight of 8-13 to victory which allows yours truly to eliminate the bottom two horses in the (Class 6) handicap. JORVIK PRINCE could also join the discarded pair if Gemma Tutty claims all five pounds but that said, Karen Tutty’s raider looks a far bigger threat to those further up the handicap than the other entries. FLAWLESSLY and HAMIDANS GIRL are the other potential winners in the field from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: Ten of the thirteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three winners.
2.30: Richard Fahey’s juveniles have been running well already this season and though SHOBROM could only finish sixth of nine on debut, the strength of that Newmarket event will stand the Acclamation colt in good stead in this grade/company. It should be noted that Paul Hanagan’s mount was ‘only’ beaten by four lengths having showed early speed and it would be something of a surprise if SHOBROM failed to dictate matters on Friday. Only FAITHFUL PROMISE can be mentioned in the same breath according to the gospel of yours truly.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 10/11 market leader finished last of five, David Barron’s raider being beaten over thirteen lengths on the day.
Five year record of represented trainers with their juveniles at Musselburgh:
Paul Midgley (Holmfirst) – 1/7 (Slight profit to level stakes)
Jim Goldie (Primo’s Comet) – No previous juvenile runners
Richard Fahey (Shobrom) – 12/50 (loss of 6 points)
Mark Johnston (Faithful Promise) – 16/70 (Profit of 9 points)
Keith Dalgleish (Hypnotic Dancer) – 11/65 (Profit of 55 points)
David Barron (Shanghai Elastic) – 2/15 (loss of 9 points)
3.00: The last four gold medallists have carried a maximum weight of 8-13 though this year’s three qualifiers are difficult to fancy, the pick of which is (arguably) Mama Africa and Dapper Man. More likely winners include ATTEQ (Richard Fahey has saddled five winners since Monday) and THOMAS CRANMER (Mark Johnston has saddled four winners during the same period).
Favourite factor: Three of the last five favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include one (9/4) winner.
3.30: Nine of the last eleven winners have carried weights of 9-1 or more and just three of the five declarations ‘qualify’ via the weight trends this time around. GREEN LIGHT is therefore preferred to Go George Go accordingly, with CORTON’S LAD and course winner FALCON’S FIRE added into the mix, mainly from an insurance perspective given that this race would become a ‘win only’ event if a non-runner reared its ugly head.
Favourite factor: 15/27 horses claiming toteplacepot positions to date were returned at odds of 5/1 or less (one successful favourite via ten renewals). Three market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions thus far.
Record of course winners in the fourth contest on the card:
1/2—Falcon’s Fire (good)
4.00: ELECTION DAY has the advantage of race fitness over EURO NIGHTMARE which I doubt Theresa May will be backing this afternoon! I wonder if there is any significance in the fact that the three-year-old runs in Scotland on his seasonal debut! EURO NIGHTMARE was out of her depth in a Listed contest last back end but this handicap could be there for the taking if Keith Dalgleish has the Kodiac filly fully wound up this afternoon. Joe Fannng has ridden seven winners during the last month and if EURO NIGHTMARE requires the run to bring her to peak fitness, Joe should score aboard ELECTION DAY in an interesting contest. The fact that the two horses contest the same race adds an amusing twist to the contest, especially north of the border!
Favourite factor: Four of the six favourites (via the last five renewals) have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include two (6/4 & 5/6) winners)
4.40: Horses carrying 9-2 or less have secured 13 of the last 23 available toteplacepot positions, stats which include six of the ten winners. TADAAWOL and TAVENER are two of the four qualifiers who should figure prominently, arguable alongside VALLARTA from further up the handicap. Ruth Carr saddles the latter name Footstepsinthesand gelding with Ruth having secured nine winners last month, her fourth highest monthly total during the last five years.
Favourite factor: Six of the ten favourites have secured toteplacepot positions to date, with four market leaders having won their respective events at odds of 4/1-3/1-5/2-11/8.
Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/1—Shootingsta (good to firm)
4/15—Ralphy Boy (3 x good & good to firm)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Musselburgh card on Friday – followed by their five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued before Thursday’s sport was contested:
8 runners—Keith Dalgleish (35/264 – Profit of 6 points) – 1/5 last night
3—Karl Burke (3/25 – loss of 5 points)
3—Mark Johnston (44/231 – loss of 29 points)
2—David Barron (8/62 – loss of 27 points)
2—Ruth Carr (11/84 – loss of 10 points)
2—Michael Dods (11/48 – loss of 2 points)
2—Ann Duffield (2/45 – loss of 29 points)
2—Brian Ellison (10/82 – loss of 7 points)
2—Les Eyre (0/5)
2—Richard Fahey (37/192 – Profit of 34 points) – 1/1 last night
2—Roger Fell (1/1 – Profit of 4 points)
2—Paul Midgley (9/57 – Profit of 1 point)
2—Peter Niven (4/16 – Profit of 2 points)
2—Bryan Smart (10/75 – loss of 5 points)
2—Alan Swinbank (11/62 – loss of 6 points)
2—John Wainwright (0/5)
+ 11 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
51 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Chepstow: £30.70 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 3 unplaced
Cheltenham: £158.90 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced
Fontwell: £120.30 – 6 favourites – 3 wuinners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced
Lingfield: £18.30 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced