Placepot Pointers

Placepot Pointers: Friday May 6th

CHESTER – MAY 6

 

Corresponding toteplacepot dividends during the last five years:

2015: £900.10 (6 favourites: No winners - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)
2014: £545.20 (7 favourites: 2 winners & 5 unplaced)
2013: £129.80 (6 favourites: 2 winners & 4 unplaced)

2012: £5,565.50 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

2011: £64.10 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)
Average Placepot dividend: £1,440.94 - 31 favourites - 9 winners - 5 placed - 17 unplaced
 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Chester: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 1 (Jallota), 8 (Archie) & 2 (Sound Advice)
Leg 2 (2.40): 6 (Linguistic) & 4 (Housesofparliament)
Leg 3 (3.10): 1 (Dartmouth) & 5 (Father Christmas)
Leg 4 (3.45): 1 (Kachy), 3 (Riflescope) & 7 (El Asronaute)
Leg 5 (4.20): 2 (The Hooded Claw), 3 (Navigate), 6 (Deauville Prince) & 4 (Meshardal)
Leg 6 (4.50): 1 (Angelic Guest) & 5 (Golden Glimmer)
Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes
 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 
2.10: Four-year-olds have won seven of the last 13 renewals (clean sweep 1-2-3 in two of the last eight years - forecast landed two months ago), whilst 11 of the last 13 winners have carried weights of 8-10 or more.  If we bring the stats right up to date however, five-year-olds have secured five of the last six renewals, with the two vintages havinbg totally dominated the event down the years.  Accordingly, it's difficult to comprehend why only one five-year-old has been declared this time around, with Charlie Hills (JALLOTA) (seemingly) the only trainer to have noticed the 'edge'.  Charlie's Rock Of Gibraltar gelding has not won as many races (two in total) as should have been the case, though a draw of 8/14 on Friday could be good enough to take his win/run ratio to 10%.  The pick of the four-year-olds will hopefully prove to be ARCHIE (5) and ARNOLD LANE (1), though both of those horses hail from the 'inferior' sector of the weights.  SOUND ADVICE (6) is offered up as the overnight reserve, especially as he is unbeaten (via two assignments) at the track.

Favourite factor: 

Six favourites have scored during the last 18 years, whilst seven of the 13 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions via the last eleven renewals. 

Draw factor (seven and a half furlongs):

5-14-8 (8 ran-soft)
1-13-8 (10 ran-soft)
2-1-13 (10 ran-good to soft)
3-1-6 (9 ran-soft)
12-5-15 (14 ran-good to firm)
7-12-13 (11 ran-good to soft)
6-16-10 (14 ran--good to firm)
6-4-1 (11 ran-good)
5-6-3 (12 ran-good)
10-4-8 (9 ran-good to soft)
13-5-9-10 (18 ran-good to soft)
1-4-3-7 (18 ran-good to soft)
4-3-2-10 (16 ran-good to firm)
2-14-3-17 (17 ran-good to firm)
16-6-5-7 (18 ran-good to firm)
3-1-13-9 (17 ran-good)
7-5-4-13 (17 ran-good to firm)
11-10-4-14 (18 ran-good to firm)

Chester record of course winners in the opening event:

2/2--Sound Advice
1/9--Gabrial's Kaka
1/3--Arnold Lane
 
2.40: Aidan O’Brien has won this Group 3 event five times via the last nine races in which Aidan has been represented, with HOUSESOFPARLIAMENT (drawn 1/8) and COOK ISLANDS (8) having been offered the green light on this occasion.  A five length winner in a Dundalk maiden the last day, HOUSESOFPARLIAMENT looks to be the pick of the pair having won over this trip at the third time of asking.   That said, Ryan Moore takes the ride aboard COOK ISLANDS and it wouldn't be the first time that Aidan has won a race this side of the Irish Sea with 'the other one'.  John Gosden's LINGUISTIC won his latest Newmarket assignment in the style of a progressive horse, with the trainer having described his January foal this time last year as a "grand colt".  That said, there is no plan at present to tackle the Epsom Derby despite this being the first of three entries in 'Derby trials', with Royal Ascot's 'KIng Edward' contest being John's thought pattern at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: 

Seven market leaders have obliged during the study period, whilst 10 recent market leaders have reached the frame.  12 of the last 14 winners were returned at odds of 8/1 or less. 

Chester record of course winners in the second race on the card:

1/2--Kingston Kurrajong
 
3.10: Four-year-olds have won five of the last nine renewals (the vintage was not represented on one occasion), with DARTMOUTH, FATHER CHRISTMAS and course winner CYMRO being this year's relevant entries.  The trio is listed in order of preference at the overnight stage, albeit oh so marginally. That said, WICKLOW BRAVE is an interesting raider from the Willie Mullins ranks, though you are probably like yours truly in that there are some horses that you just cannot get right (you back them when they lose and they win when you oppose the said beasts), with Wuilliam Buick's mount being one of them!  Aidan O'Brien (FATHER CHRISTMAS) has snared three of the last eight contests, though no trainer has won this race more often than Sir Michael Stoute (DARTMOUTH) who has saddled the winner five times, the first of which was with Saddlers' Hall back in 1992.

Favourite factor: 

Seven market leaders have rewarded investors during the last 18 years.  15 of the last 17 winners of this event have been returned at 7/2 or less.  Five of the ten market leaders during the last decade have claimed Placepot positions though to be entirely fair, many of the favourites lost out when contesting 'win only' events.

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Chester record of course winners in the third contest:

1/2--Cymro
3.45: Nine of the last fourteen winners have carried weights of 8-13 or more and the trend could be extended here with three of the nine runners hailing from the ‘superior’ sector of the handicap.  The trio are listed in marginal order of preference as KACHY (drawn 3/9), RIFLESCOPE (4) and GRACIOUS JOHN (9).  If the handicap trend goes base over apex this time around, EL ASTRONAUTE (1) appeals as the value for money alternative option.  The Richard Fahey pair Powerallied and Birdcage were both declared to run on Thursday afternoon, after this analysis for Friday's card was written.

Favourite factor: 

Five favourites have won of late, whilst 15 of the last 18 winners scored at 8/1 or less.  Nine of the last eighteen market leaders have finished in the frame. 

Draw factor (five furlongs):

8-7 (5 ran-soft)
4-1 (6 ran-soft)
8-5-9 (10 ran-good to soft)
3-5-6 (9 ran-soft)
5-3-2 (8 ran-good to firm)
5-3 (6 ran-good to soft)
1-7-2 (10 ran--good to firm)
7-3-9 (8 ran-good)
3-6-1 (8 ran-good)
1-5-9 (12 ran-good to firm)
4-6-2 (10 ran-good to soft)
7-8-14 (15 ran-soft)
8-1-6 (15 ran-good)
11-1-5 (10 ran-good to firm)
1-7-4 (14 ran-good to firm)
4-1-5 (12 ran-good)
5-2-3 (12 ran-good to firm)
5-7-2 (13 ran-good)

Chester record of course winners in the fourth race:

1/1--Kachy
1/2--El Astronaute
1/3--Powerallied
 
4.20: Four/five/six-year-olds have each secured two victories, whilst five of the six winners have carried weights of 9-3 or more. The weight stats eliminate three runners, four if you include a claiming scenario.  The pick of the remaining ten contenders from my viewpoint are THE HOODED CLAW (drawn 6/14), NAVIGATE (9) and DEAUVILLE PRINCE (2).  Of those drawn out in the 'car park', MESHARDAL would have entered the mix but for the negative stall position.

Favourite factor: 

Four of the six favourites have finished out with the washing thus far (no winners).  The average priced winner thus far stands at 8/1.

Draw factor (seven furlongs):

4-2-10 (10-soft)
2-6-12 (14 ran-good to soft)
2-3-5 (13 ran-soft)
11-4-13 (14 ran-good to firm)
2-14-1 (12 ran-good to soft)

Chester record of course winners in the fifth event:

1/2--The Hooded Claw
1/1--Navigate
1/12--Alejandro
1/8--Deauville Prince
1/3--Fast Dancer
1/1--Kalk Bay
1/4--Captain Revelation
 
4.50: If you fancy a tilt at the Placepot on Thursday, you might be influenced by £5,565.50 dividend on this corresponding card back in 2012.  This race made all the difference that day, the frame being filled by horses returned at 25/1-28/1-33/1.  Three warm favourites won on the Placepot card (11/8-11/10-Evens), whilst five of the six win and placed horses in the other two races were returned at a top price of 15/2, the other position being claimed by a 10/1 chance.  My trio against the other five contenders in this nerve jangling 'dead eight' event consists of ANGELIC GUEST (drawn 1/8), GOLDEN GLIMMER (4) and QUEENS CODE (2).  The first named pair were only separated by a short head when both horses were making their respective debuts at Haydock, whilst QUEENS CODE could reverse placings with Dufay this time around, the latter named raider having had the advantage of a previous outing when the pair met last month.

Favourite factor: 

Eight of the last 15 favourites have won this toteplacepot finale.  Six of the last ten market leaders have finished in the frame.

Draw factor (seven furlongs):

7-3-2 (8 ran-soft)
2-7 (7 ran-soft)
7-9-2 (8 ran-good to soft)
2-4-3 (8 ran-soft)
4-1-11 (12 ran-good to firm)
3-9-8 (9 ran-good to soft)
12-4-6 (12 ran--good to firm)
10-3-4 (10 ran-good)
4-5-13 (13 ran-good)
3-5 (5 ran-good to soft)
5-2-7 (10 ran-good to soft)
7-2 (6 ran-good to soft)
6-1-9 (9 ran-good to firm)
5-4 (7 ran-good to firm)
3-7-10 (10 ran-good to firm)
1-3 (7 ran-good)
2-1-9 (10 ran-good to firm)
4-1-6 (8 ran-good)
 
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Chester card on Friday:

8--Tom Dascombe (7/50 at Chester last season)
5--Richard Fahey (13/99)
4--Mick Channon (2/24)
3--Charlie Hills (0/8)
3--Aidan O'Brien (2/4)
3--Kevin Ryan (3/14)
2--Keith Dalgleish (2/9)
2--Mick Easterby (2/9)
2--David Evans (2/38)
2--Mark Johnston (12/56)
2--John Quinn (2/16)
2--Sir Michael Stoute (1/11)
+ 32 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
70 declared runners
 

General overview:

Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year: 

Ascot: £218.90 (6 favourites - 1 winner - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)
John Gosden secured a 34/1 double on the Ascot card - 2 runners there on Friday
Lingfield (A/W): £112.60 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)
Market Rasen: £65.30 (7 favourites - 3 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)
Oliver Sherwood 10/3 double on last year's card - Evening Stanley (1.50) - only entry
Nottingham: £166.80 (6 favourites - 3 winners & 3 unplaced)
Ripon: £445.10 (7 favourites - No winners - 3 placed - 3 unplaced)
Bryan Smart secured  37/1 double on the Ripon card - 2 runners there on Friday
 

Chester overview:

FIve year history relating the last day of Chester's May meeting:

Leading trainers: 
5 winners - Richard Fahey (6/1-11/2-4/1-3/1-2/1*)
5 winners - Aidan O'Brien (11/4**-13/8*-11/8-11/10* - Evens*)
3 winners - Tom Dascombe (7/1-6/1-6/4)
2 winners - Andrew Balding (10/3* & 2/1*)
2 winners - Charlie Hills (4/1 & 9/4*)
Negative favourite ratios:
0/3--Mark Johnston
0/2--William Haggas
0/2--Ruth Carr
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