CHELTENHAM - NOVEMBER 11
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £242.50 (7 favourites - 3 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)
Friday's Placepot permutation at Cheltenham:
Leg 1 (12.55): 1 (Shuile Royale), 3 (Dunraven Storm) & 10 (Cody Wyoming)
Leg 2 (1.30): 4 (Bally Longford), 3 (Johnny Og) & 1 (Sizing Codelko)
Leg 3 (2.05): 5 (Barters Hill), 6 (O O Seven) & 1 (Rock The Kasbah)
Leg 4 (2.40): 4 (Wholestone), 7 (Baden) & 8 (Bally Gilbert)
Leg 5 (3.15): 4 (Lou Vert), 5 (Air Horse One) & 10 (Kk Lexion)
Leg 6 (3.50): 3 (Fayette County) & 8 (What A Moment)
Suggested stake: 486 bets to 10p stakes
Leading trainers at the Open Meeting during the last five years:
Before you take ANYTHING else into account, one stunning fact emerges during a five year study of the Open meeting.
Just three trainers have contributed 44/93 winners, which equates to 47.3% of the entire set of gold medallists. If you add the fourth trainer into the mix, the percentage rises to 54.8%
The relevant leading trainers are as follows:
16 winners—Paul Nicholls (3 on Friday – 8 on Saturday – 5 on Sunday)
15 winners—David Pipe (5-5-5)
13 winners—Philip Hobbs (4-4-5)
7 winners Nicky Henderson (1-1-5)
12.55: I guess if the Cross Country had to be replaced, a veteran’s event was bound to keep the customer satisfied as a couple of American guys sang to great effect back in a bygone age. These old warriors often serve up a treat when pitched together, with SHUIL ROYALE, CODY WYOMING and DUNRAVEN STORM making most appeal this time around. The first named Harry Fry raider represents a stable which boasts 5/14 stats of late, coupled with the fact that SHUIL ROYALE has won his last four races under these projected (good) conditions. If rain unexpectedly arrives on the day, CODE WYOMING could represent really good value for money, though DUNRAVEN STORM is likely to pose a bigger threat given the forecast.
Favourite factor: This is a new race, given that the Cross Country contest was abandoned because of unsafe ground.
Record of the course winners in the opening event:
1/9—Dunraven Storm (soft)
2/23—Astracad (2 x good)
1.30: Eight-year-olds have won four of the last five contests, whilst eight of the last eleven winners have carried a maximum burden of 10-9. Three value for money types make some appeal given the 'edges' on offer, namely BALLY LONGFORD, JOHNNY OG and SIZING CODELKO. If the recent trend is to be breached, David Pipe’s four-year-old upstart IMPULSIVE AMERICAN could prove to be the joker in the pack.
Favourite factor: Only three favourites have obliged during the study period, albeit that 13 of the other 16 scorers were sent off in single SP figures without being returned as market leaders. Eight favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.
Record of the course winners in race two:
1/6—Bold Henry (soft)
1/8—Next Sensation (soft)
2.05: It took a seven-year-old horse of the calibre of More Of That (favourite for Saturday’s big race) to end a run of six-year-olds having won the previous nine renewals of this event twelve months ago. I’m hoping that the race reverts to type on this occasion with BARTERS HILL and O O SEVEN both attracting eye for different reasons. Nicky Henderson waxed lyrical about the latter named raider last year before he had set his hooves onto a racecourse and though the Flemensfirth raider did well enough, I always got the impression that fences would make a man of him. To beat BARTERS HILL on level terms will be a tough ask however, notwithstanding plenty of others who more than deserve their respective places in the line-up, with ROCK THE KASBAH impressing on his fencing debut at Chepstow on ground that might have been livelier than the Philip Hobbs raider would ideally prefer. Giving three pounds to his six rivals here will tell us much about his potential over the larger obstacles.
Favourite factor: Six market leaders have prevailed during the last fourteen years.
2.40: Five-year-olds have won nine of the last ten renewals of this Grade 2 novice hurdle event, with vintage representatives at 2/1 to extend the trend before the form book is consulted via three relevant raiders. Listed in order of preference at the time of writing, WHOLESTONE, BADEN and BALLY GILBERT are expected to make a decent fist of it, with connections of the trio likely to fear PILANSBERG more than most.
Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders and one co favourite (of three) have won during the study period, whilst 14 of the 22 jollies reached the frame.
Record of the course winner in the fourth event:
3.15: Four-year-olds have won five of the last seven renewals with vintage representative being around the 11/2 mark to extend the advantage before form is taken into consideration. The three relevant entries this time around will be led home by LOU VERT in all probability, one of just two Paul Nicholls runners on the card. Midnight oil will need to be burned before I commit money to the cause but this side of twelve o’clock I am opting for AIR HORSE ONE, KK LEXION and MAGNA CARTOR to complete my ‘short list’ against the remaining fifteen contenders.
Favourite factor: Although five favourites have obliged, only one of the last eight market leaders has prevailed. Eight of the thirteen favourites have snared toteplacepot positions during the study period.
3.50: Twelve of the last thirteen winners have carried weights of 11-4 or less, with WHAT A MOMENT expected to lead home the relevant nine runners. I have a notion that horses further up the handicap might prevail this time around however, with FAYETTE COUNTY marginally preferred to KILFINICHEN BAY.
Favourite factor: Two clear market leaders and a couple of joint favourites have won in the last 19 years, whilst 13 of the 25 jollies have finished in the frame. Seven of the last 17 winners have been returned in double figures.
Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/3—Troika Steppes (good)
Twirling Magnet (good)
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Cheltenham card on Friday followed by 5 years Cheltenham stats and profits/losses accrued:
5 runners—Nicky Henderson (30/317 – loss of 144 points)
5—Jonjo O‘Neill (18/172 – loss of 24 points)
4—Philip Hobbs (32/225 – Profit of 3 points)
4—Charlie Longsdon (3/81 – loss of 58 points)
4—David Pipe (25/228 – loss of 5 points)
4—Colin Tizzard (7/122 – Profit of 35 points)
3—Ben Pauling (1/21 – loss of 14 points)
3—Nigel Twiston-Davies (23/212 – loss of 72 points)
2—Robin Dickin (2/30 – level profit/loss scenario)
2—Harry Fry (9/53 – loss of 4 points)
2—Martin Keighley (9/79 – loss of 9 points)
2—Tony Martin (5/45 – Profit of 23 points)
2—Paul Nicholls (49/353 – Profit of 24 points)
2—Dan Skelton (8/72 –loss of 27 points)
2—Tim Vaughan (0/82)
2—Evan Williams (7/77 – loss of 3 points)
+ 23 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
56 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Hexham: £139.70 – 7 favourites - 3 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced
Lingfield A/W: £33.10 – 6 favourites - 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced
Wolverhampton: £94.20 – 6 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced