ASCOT - NOVEMBER 18
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £394.70 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)
Friday's Placepot permutation at Ascot:
Leg 1 (1.00): 7 (Ridgway Flyer) & 6 (Reality Bites)
Leg 2 (1.35): 2 (Different Gravey) & 3 (Hell’s Kitchen)
Leg 3 (2.10): 6 (Criq Rock), 2 (Thomas Campbell) & 3 (Argante)
Leg 4 (2.45): 7 (The Clock Leary), 1 (Fox Appeal) & 2 (Wings Attract)
Leg 5 (3.20): 10 (Daveron), 7 (Horatio Hornblower) & 8 (Leo Lunar)
Leg 6 (3.55): 4 (Cyrname) & 5 (Draytonian)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.00: Harry Fry led the way at this two day meeting last year snaring four winners, one ahead of Alan King and two in front of Gary Moore. Harry saddles RIDGEWAY FLYER in the opening contest, with connections probably having most to fear from the likes of REALITY BITES (Alan King) and SECRET INVESTOR (Paul Nicholls). The first named pair will represent yours truly in the Placepot permutation on Friday.
Favourite factor: All four market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include one (5/4) winner.
1.35: Six-year-olds have secured three of the four available toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include all three (5/2-8/13-4/7*) winners. DIFFERENT GRAVEY is the lone vintage representative on this occasion and with Nicky Henderson having saddled eight winners at this corresponding (Friday) fixture during the last five years, David Bass looks set to ride another winner for the trainer. That said, this is a competitive little (win only) heat, with HELL’S KITCHEN expected to offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings. That’s a somewhat ironic scenario to envisage with Barry Geraghty riding in opposition to Nicky Henderson by way of a change. BROTHER TEDD holds race fitness advantage over the afore-mentioned pair however, whereby Richard Johnson’s mount might yet be included in the Placepot mix.
Favourite factor: Three of the four market leaders have claimed Placepot positions thus far, statistics which include two (4/7 & 8/13) winners.
Record of the course winner in the second race:
1/1—Different Gravey (soft)
2.10: Five-year-olds have won five of the last eight renewals, with the lone vintage representative (Criq Rock) coming to the gig on a four timer on behalf of the five-year-olds. Alan King (CRIQ ROCK) saddled last year’s winner when the (Nicky Henderson trained) 1/3 favourite tipped up when still looking likely to win. Nicky Henderson is double handed this time around, with THOMAS CAMPBELL and ARGANTE both boasting claims ahead of Resolution Bay.
Favourite factor: Eight favourites have won via seventeen renewals, whilst 16 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions down the years.
Record of the course winner in the field:
1/1—Criq Rock (good to soft)
2.45: THE CLOCK LEARY did yours truly a great favour at this two day meeting a couple of years back having secured 20/1 about the eventual 12/1 winner. Having failed to win via six subsequent assignments, the Venetia Williams raider contests this event from a four pound lower mark which bring him into the overnight mix alongside FOX APPEAL and WINGS ATTRACT. The official assessor is finally dropping FOX APPEAL to a winnable mark and if THE CLOCK LEARY is in need of the run, Emma Lavelle’s nine-year-old can prevail.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 9/4 favourite duly prevailed.
Record of the course winner in the field:
1/5—Fox Appeal (soft)
1/1—The Clock Leary (good)
3.20: Eight of the nine winners have carried a minimum burden of 10-10, two of which were returned as favourites. Five of the gold medallists carried 11-5 or more and I subscribe to the view that the number will be increased here, with either DAVERON or HORATIO HORNBLOWER obliging, Eight-year-olds have won four of the last five renewals (and five of the last nine) which also brings TINKER TIME into the equation. LEO LUNA would attract attention if any of the heavy showers happen to fall at Ascot prior to flag fall, especially as trainer Gary Moore secured a 47/1 double on the corresponding card twelve months ago.
Favourite factor: Six favourites have finished out of the money thus far but that said, 18 of the 24 horses to secure toteplacepot positions (including seven of the nine winners) were returned at odds of 10/1 or less.
3.55: Beaten just ten and a half lengths in the Scottish Champion Hurdle last time out, I could have fancied Dan Skelton’s Bertimont to a fashion, had the handicapper cut the six-year-old a little more slack (than six pounds) for being off the course for the thick end of 20 months. In the circumstances, more logical winners include the Paul Nicholls import CYRNAME and DRAYTONIAN. If the ground has cut up badly by the time the last race is run, SEA WALL could outrun his odds.
Favourite factor: Six of the last 13 clear favourites have obliged, whilst six of the last seven market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Ascot card on Friday – followed by five year Ascot stats + profits/losses accrued:
4 runners—Philip Hobbs (16/83 – Profit of 1 point to level stakes)
4—Paul Nicholls (26/123 - loss of 16 points)
3—Nicky Henderson (26/120 – loss of 36 points)
2—Alan King (10/63 – Profit of 30 points)
2—Harry Fry (10/32 (Profit of 6 points)
2—Chris Gordon (0/21)
2—Charlie Longsdon (6/61 – Profit of 2 lengths)
2—Jonjo O’Neill (3/45 – loss of 22 points)
2—Nick Williams (3/23 – loss of 6 points)
+ 26 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
49 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Haydock: £64.80 – 6 runners – 4 winners & 2 unplaced
Ffos Las: Meeting abandoned
Newcastle A/W: This is a new meeting