NEWBURY - NOVEMBER 25
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £71.90 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 3 placed - 1 unplaced)
Friday's Placepot permutation at Newbury:
Leg 1 (12.30): 8 (Jenkins) & 1 (Bags Groove)
Leg 2 (1.05): 4 (Sirabad), 2 (Winner Massagot) & 7 (What’s The Scoop)
Leg 3 (1.35): 4 (Clan Des Obeaux) & 5 (Protek Des Flos)
Leg 4 (2.10): 3 (Ballyoptic), 5 (Unowhatimeanharry) & 2 (Snow Falcon)
Leg 5 (2.45): 2 (Three Muskateers), 6 (Stilletto) & 3 (Double Choice)
Leg 6 (3.20): 1 (El Bandit), 7 (Board Of Trade) & 8 (Solemn Grundy)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.30: Four-year-olds have won the last six renewals (and eight of the last ten), whilst Nicky Henderson has secured four of the last seven contests, having held just the one option (JENKINS) for this event last week. Four-year-old course winner JENKINS looks the horse to beat taking the two positive factors into account, with connections having most to fear from the likes of BAGS GROOVE and (possibly) Captain Forez.
Favourite factor: All ten winners during the last decade have scored at a top price of 8/1, statistics which include four successful market leaders. Seven of the last eight favourites have secured Placepot positions.
Record of the course winner in the opening event:
1.05: Six-year-olds have won four of the five renewals thus far and as usual, Paul Nicholls is up for an edge having declared vintage representative SIRABAD. Nicky Henderson is wise to the move with WHAT’S THE SCOOP representing the Seven Barrows yard, though WINNER MASSAGOT also attracts the eye at (potentially) a much bigger price. Alan King (WINNER MASSAGOT) has saddled the winner of the race on two of the three occasions that his stable has been represented. Add the fact that Alan’s five-year-old have already won two races when racing for the first time in a while, leads me to thinking that an each way play on Noel Fehily’s mount might be the way to play the race, though SIRABAD is a live danger.
Favourite factor: Two of the six market leaders having finished in the frame to date by winning their respective events.
1.35: Two of the last five winners (Conygree and Bobs Worth) have gone on to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup, notwithstanding the victory of Denman in the race back in 2006. Paul Nicholls has secured three of these races during the last eleven years, with the trainer holding a trio of entries at the penultimate stage. Paul has offered the nod to his four-year-old Kapgarde raider CLAN DES OBEAUX who has already scored at this venue. The race could produce another classic Nicholls/Henderson confrontation, with Nicky represented by fellow four-year-old PROTEK DES FLOS. This pair obviously have much more potential improvement compared to their three rivals who chances are respected, though I would be disappointed if at least one of the junior set failed to make the frame at the very least.
Favourite factor: Seven favourites have won during the last nineteen years, whilst the last eighteen winners have scored at 10/1 or less. 18 of the 21 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.
Record of the course winners in the field:
1/2—One Track Mind (soft)
1/1—Clan Des Obeaux (soft)
2.10: Big Bucks has been largely responsible for the positive favourite trends listed below, whilst adding the names of Inglis Drever and Baracouda before the Ditcheat based champion took hold of the event, whereby you can see that bookmakers have been knocked around the ring as though they faced Cassius Clay/Mohammed Ali in his prime. Those days are over for the time being however, especially as this field lacks depth and I certainly would not have anything on my mind for the World Hurdle this time around. That said, there was huge support for BALLYOPTIC at Wetherby before the Twiston-Davies raider came down at the final flight when rallying having looked beaten a few flights from home. How much confidence will have been drained from the six-year-old is unknown of course, though I for one would be willing to give him another chance in this grade/company. UNOWHATIMEANHARRY and SNOW FALCON will hopefully offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings.
Favourite factor: 11 of the last 17 favourites have won this World Hurdle ‘trial’, whilst 16 of the last 19 winners were returned at 6/1 or less. 14 of the last 19 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.
Record of the course winners in the fourth contest:
1/3—Reve De Sivola (heavy)
2.45: Seven-year-olds boast the best recent record in this event having secured five of the last twelve renewals. Only Johnny Farrelly has (seemingly) given the stats a coat of looking at as his Westerner raider STILLETTO is the only seven-year-old in the line-up. Nine of the last eleven winners have carried a minimum burden of 10-11 which also brings THREE MUSKATEERS and DOUBLE SHUFFLE into the equation. THREE MUSKATEERS gained a facile victory on the corresponding card twelve months ago and must figure prominently from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: Only one (joint) favourite has prevailed via the last thirteen contests during which time, seven of the fourteen market leaders finished in the frame.
Record of the course winners in the fifth race:
1/1—Three Muskateers (soft)
1/1—Double Shuffle (good to soft)
1/3—Splash Of Ginge (heavy)
3.20: Ten of the eleven winners have carried weights of 10-10 or more, whilst five-year-olds have secured six of the last eight renewals whereby there are two ’qualifiers’ with ticks in both boxes. EL BANDIT is preferred to BOARD OF TRADE though only marginally, as Alan King’s Black Sam Bellamy raider receives 13 pounds from the Paul Nicholls top weighted raider. If the five-year-olds are to miss out on this occasion, SOLEMN GRUNDY is the likeliest 'spoiler' in the field, coming to the gig bang on the 10-10 mark.
Favourite factor: Eight of the ten favourites to date secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include six winners. This must be something of a record regarding one of the ‘Pertemps Qualifiers’!
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newbury card on Friday – followed by five year stats at the track – level stake profits/losses accrued:
7 runners—Nicky Henderson (34/148 – loss of 17 points)
5—Dan Skelton (5/29 – loss of 4 points)
4—Harry Fry (12/42 – Slight profit)
4—Warren Greatrex (9/53 – loss of 9 points)
4—Alan King (16/149 – loss of 64 points)
4—Paul Nicholls (28/148 – loss of 11 points)
3—Philip Hobbs (18/104 – Profit of 64 points)
3—Jonjo O’Neill (9/84 – loss of 28 points)
2—Rebecca Curtis (8/56 – Profit of 7 points)
2—Tom George (5/63 – loss of 40 points)
2—Gary Moore (6/64 – loss of 8 points)
2—Colin Tizzard (7/72 – loss of 30 points)
2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (11/83 – Profit of 21 points)
2—Evan Williams (2/28 – loss of 4 points)
2—Nick Williams (3/36 – loss of 2 points)
+ 22 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
70 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Doncaster: £525.10 – 8 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced
Newcastle: This is a new meeting
Wolverhampton: £22.60 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced