WINCANTON - OCTOBER 14
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £635.40 (6 favourites - 4 winners & 2 unplaced)
Friday's Placepot permutation at Wincanton:
Leg 1 (1.50): 1 (Deserter) & 4 (Beat The Tide)
Leg 2 (2.25): 2 (Moonday Sun), 1 (Hint Of Mint) & 4 (Cliffs Of Dover)
Leg 3 (3.00): 2 (Present Man), 3 (Closest Friend) & 1 (Gentleman Jon)
Leg 4 (3.35): 3 (Prettylittlething) & 1 (Kapgarde King)
Leg 5 (4.10): 2 (On Demand), 7 (Karl Marx) & 1 (Titch Strider)
Leg 6 (4.45): 1 (Murifield) & 3 (Rouge Devils)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.50: Five-year-olds have won the last four renewals of the opening event and DESERTER is the lone vintage representative on this occasion. Tim Vaughan (BEAT THE TIDE) is the only represented trainer to have won this event thus far and the Black Sam Bellamy gelding will not go down without a fight I’ll wager. The three pound claimer aboard DESERTER might just tilt in balance in favour of the projected favourite.
Favourite factor: Eight favourites have been returned via just six contests, market leaders having secured two gold medals, three silver and one of the bronze variety.
2.25: MOONDAY SUN is the only runner representing Nigel Twiston-Davies on Friday, with the trainer going through a purple patch right now. HINT OF MINT has been off the track for over eighteen months and has dropped 12 pounds as a result, though it should be noted that this still leaves Harry Fry’s raider on a two spot higher mark than he has won from before. CLIFFS OF DOVER did not do a great deal wrong as a beaten favourite and is preferred to course winner My Brother Sylvest in an intriguing ‘win only’ event.
Favourite factor: The two (5/2 & 9/4) favourites to date duly prevailed.
Record of the course winner in the field:
1/3—My Brother Sylvest (good)
3.00: Eight-year-olds have secured seven of the last 12 renewals, if you include one that dead-heated three years ago having been featured in my short list at 20/1. Eight-year-old GENTLEMAN JON was the middle leg of a massive treble for trainer Colin Tizzard on the card twelve months ago, though the form of Colin’s raider has been a little sketchy in subsequent assignments. Aidan Coleman’s mount has to cope with a five point higher mark than when successful last year. Accordingly, I marginally prefer the likes of PRESENT MAN and CLOSEST FRIEND from a win perspective this time around.
Favourite factor: Three of the thirteen renewals have been won by favourites during the last fourteen years. Six favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.
Record of course winners in the third contest on the card:
2/5—Gentleman Jon (good to firm & soft)
1/6—Present Man (good to soft)
3/7—I’m In Charge (2 x good to firm & good)
3.35: Six-year-olds have won two of the three renewals thus far via just 25% of the total number of runners, with PRETTYLITTLETHING probably being offered at a short price to improve the ratio still further on Thursday. Neil Mulholland has been pumping out the winners all season, currently boasting a 21% strike rate via 39 gold medallists since the start of May. KAGARDE KING is expected to offer most resistance close home, though probably at a respectable distance.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 9/4 favourite missed out on a toteplacepot position by finishing third in a seven runner event three years ago and though beaten from a win perspective twelve months on, the 5/2 market leader evened up the score in Placepot terms. Last year’s market leader duly obliged.
4.10: A great deal of time has passed by since I passed on the news that favourites in extended handicap hurdle events (beyond the minimum trip) have the worst record in racing as far as successful market leaders are concerned though always trying to offer an accurate assessment, market leaders in this race have not fared too badly (see stats below). Ten of the last 11 winners have carried 11-4 or more, whilst every gold medallists during the last decade has been burdened with a minimum of eleven stones. Only ON DEMAND and course winner TITCH STRIDER (listed in order of preference) qualify this time around, with dual course and distance winner KARL MARK expected to lead the other six contenders home in this potential ‘dead eight’ contest. Indeed, KARL MARX has to be considered a live danger despite the weight trend, especially with Harry Cobden still offering great value for his three pound claim.
Favourite factor: Ten of the twelve favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, with four market leaders having prevailed from a win perspective.
Record of course winners in the fifth race:
1/12--Titch Strider (good to soft)
2/8--Karl Marx (both victories secured on good going)
4.45: A poor Placepot finale and no mistake, whereby Harry Fry’s MURIFIELD might not need to be cherry ripe to go very close to winning in this grade/company. Looking to even up the score with the five-year-olds in this sixth renewal, six year-old MURIFIELD should not be hard pressed to hold ROGUE DEVILS if the recent Hereford effort of the Paul Nicholls representative is anything to go by.
Favourite factor: Three of the five market leaders have snared Placepot positions, statistics which include two (4/6 & 4/9) winners.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Wincanton card on Friday:
3 runners—Paul Nicholls (2/4 this season at Wincanton)
2—Brian Barr (0/1)
2—Harry Fry (1/2)
2—Colin Tizzard (0/6) – 17/4/1 treble on the corresponding card last year
+ 24 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
33 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Haydock: 217.30 – 6 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced
Redcar: £171.00 – 6 favourites – No winnrs – 2 placed – 4 unplaced
Fakenham: £42.30 – 6 favourites – 6 favourites – 3 placed – 2 unplaced
Newcastle (A/W) – This is a new meeting