CHELTENHAM - OCTOBER 21
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £1,628.30 (6 favourites - 1 winner - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)
Friday's Placepot permutation at Cheltenham:
Leg 1 (2.10): 2 (El Bandit) & 1 (Black Warrior)
Leg 2 (2.45): 2 (Marracudja), 1 (Ridestan) & 4 (Presenting Arms)
Leg 3 (3.20): 7 (Washed Ashore), 12 (Florrie Boy) & 2 (Arctic Gold)
Leg 4 (3.55): 3 (Tiger Roll) & 4 (Cottersrock)
Leg 5 (4.30): 9 (Thomas Campbell) & 3 (Casper King)
Leg 6 (5.05): 6 (Velator), 2 (Handy Andy), 9 (Cecil Corbett) & 16 (Stoika Steppes)
Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.10: Six of the eight winners to date have carried a minimum burden of 11-1 which eliminates the bottom two horses in the list, leaving us just three entries to assess. Paul Nicholls has saddled the last two winners when represented in the opening contest whereby ELM BANDIT is the first name on the team sheet, especially as 14 of Paul’s last 23 runners have won! BLACK WARRIOR and TEMPLEROSS should follow the selection home.
Favourite factor: Five of the eight favourites (three winners) have finished in the frame, the Placepot casualties having been sent off at 4/6-2/1-9/4. The 2014 (9/4) favourite was withdrawn before a new market could be formed. Investors who had included the withdrawn market leader (Blacklion) in their Placepot wagers made it safely through to the second leg as the second favourite finished in the frame. According to Placepot rules, if the market leader does not run and a new market has not been formed, all units are transferred onto the second favourite.
2.45: Paul Nicholls has saddled seven winners at this two day fixture during the last five years, putting the trainer three clear of his nearest rival Jonjo O’Neill. Paul saddles MARRACUDJA on this occasion, having saddled the runner up twelve months ago, Paul’s only runner since scoring with Dark Lover back in 2013. It’s difficult to believe that Henry De Bromhead has saddled 37 runners at Cheltenham during the last five years without greeting a winner, statistics which go against RIDESTAN, who would otherwise have been named as a serious rival to MARRACUDJA, albeit the six-year-old Irish raider is still nominated as the biggest threat, marginally ahead of PRESENTING ARMS, with connections of the Harry Fry raider probably having to settle for place money yet again.
Favourite factor: The last ten winners have scored at 7/1 or less, statistics which include five successful market leaders. Nine of the last ten favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.
3.20: I mentioned Jonjo O’Neill in the previous event and his first runner on the card is WASHED ASHORE who just happens to be a five-year-old representative, with vintage raiders having secured five of the last eight renewals. Jonjo’s Presenting gelding still only has eight miles on his racing clock and seeking his hat trick here, WAHED ASHORE looks sure to figure prominently, whilst Nigel Twiston-Davies is another trainer who has put some homework in of late, as his two runners (FLORRIE BOY and ARTIC GOLD) both represent the ‘superior’ vintage. This trio are the only relevant declarations and I am quite content to let them represent yours truly in the Placepot mix, especially with Nigel knocking out so many winners of late. Nigel boasted a ratio of 13/34 (taking both codes into account) which equats to a 38/2% strike rate at the time of writing.
Favourite factor: Successful favourites have only been conspicuous by their absence during the last decade, though four of the last six market leaders have finished in the frame.
Record of the course winner in the field:
1/1—Altesse De Guye (good to soft)
3.55: Gordon Elliott has won with four of his last five runners at I write whereby six time winner TIGER ROLL commands first spot, especially as Jack Kennedy’s mount has secured two of the three events he has contested at this competitive venue. COTTERSROCK is taken as the main threat, given Henry De Bromhead’s negative numbers mentioned earlier in the analysis.
Favourite factor: 14 of the last 15 winners have scored at odds of 9/1 or less, with six favourites scoring for good measure. 11 of the last 14 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include five successful market leaders.
Record of the course winner in the fourth event:
2/3—Tiger Roll (good & good to soft)
4.30: Five and six-year-olds have shared eight of the last ten contests though with four-year-olds having won two of the last three contests, the jury is out relating to vintage trends. CASPER KING is the obvious Placepot route to take, whilst Nicky Henderson’s THOMAS CAMPBELL is the potential winner of the contest from my viewpoint. The Paul Nicholls newcomer GARO DE JUILLEY might have to be something special to get past the first named pair at the first time of asking under the NH code.
Favourite factor: 12 of the last 14 winners have been sent off at odds of 6/1 or less, stats which include six successful market leaders. 11 market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science) during the last 13 years.
5.05: As is often the case in these amateur rider events, I will opt for capable pilots over and above whatever the horses have achieved to date. My quartet against the other fourteen contenders on this occasion consists of VELATOR, HANDY ANDY, CECIL CORBETT and STOIKA STEPPES.
Favourite factor: Seven renewals had slipped by without a successful market leader was recorded until two of the last five favourites obliged. Six of the last twelve favourites have finished in the frame in a race which opened the meeting for as long as I can remember until 2011.
Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/7—Handy Andy (good)
1/3—Twirling Magnet (good)
1/2--Regal Flow (good)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Cheltenham card on Friday – followed by some really interesting five-year stats for the relevant handlers at Prestbury Park:
5 runners—Nigel Twiston-Davies (22/204 – loss of 67 points to level stakes)
4—Nicky Henderson (29/310 – loss of 141 points)
4—Paul Nicholls (45/345 – Profit of 17 points)
3—Henry De Bromhead (0/37)
3—Gordon Elliott (9/88 – loss of 1 point)
3—Mrs John Harrington (2/24 – loss of 12 points)
3—Neil Mulholland (6/44 – slight loss)
3—Colin Tizzard (7/114 – loss of 58 points)
3—Tim Vaughan (0/79)
2—Brian Barr (0/3)
2—David Bridgwater (1/21 – loss of 14 points)
2—Charlie Byrnes (2/12 – Profit of 12 points)
2—James Ewart (0/1)
2—Tom George (5/80 – loss of 41 points)
2—Philip Hobbs (31/219 – loss of 2 points)
2—Martin Keighley (9/74 – loss of 4 points)
2—Charlie Longsdon (1/78 – loss of 73 points)
2—Fergal O’Brien (9/79 (Profit of 30 points)
2—Jonjo O’Neill (18/169 – loss of 21 points)
2—David Pipe (25/225 – loss of 2 points)
2—Dan Skelton (8/70 – loss of 25 points)
+ 21 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
76 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Doncaster: £34.00 – 6 runners – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced
Newbury: £676.10 – 6 favourites – No winners – 3 placed – 3 unplaced
Wolverhampton: £180.10 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced