WETHERBY - OCTOBER 28
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £37.00 (7 favourites 4 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)
Friday's Placepot permutation at Wetherby:
Leg 1 (2.10): 3 (Clondaw Cracker) & 2 (Sharp Response)
Leg 2 (2.45): 1 (Hadfield), 5 (Robinshill) & 2 (Top Of The Glas)
Leg 3 (3.15): 5 (Abricot De L’Oasis), 2 (Indian Stream) & 8 (Degooch)
Leg 4 (3.50): 3 (Master Blueyes) & 1 (Cliffs Of Dover)
Leg 5 (4.25): 3 (Bertalus), 6 (Blue Kascade) & 5 (Queen’s Bay)
Leg 6 (5.00): 3 (Improve), 2 (Thyne For Gold) & 8 (Charlie Wingnut)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.10: Five-year-olds have won six of the last eleven renewals and the ratio could be improved upon this time around by CLONDAW CRACKER who represents trainer Neil Mulholland who boasts a 36% strike rate here at Wetherby during the last five years (see full list at the foot of the analysis). Sue Smith and her other half will not pay homage to such figures I’ll wager, taking on all and sundry whoever turns up north of Watford having declared their course and distance winner SHARP RESPONSE with win and place claims.
Favourite factor: Seven of the twelve market leaders have finished in the frame, statistics which include four successful market leaders.
2.45: HADFIELD was the beaten (11/4) favourite in this event last year when finishing just outside of the Placepot positions when beaten five and a half lengths under yielding conditions. Neil Mulholland is the ‘saddler’ again and another northern based trainer will look Neil straight between the eyes in the paddock, with Brian Ellison having declared TOP OF THE GLAS. The 10/1 trade press quote about ROBINSHILL catches the eye.
Favourite factor: Both (2/1 and 11/4) favourites have finished out of the frame.
3.20: Seven and eight-year-olds have (equally) shared six of the last seven renewals, and all three relevant entries this time around have claims on the best of their form. Listing the trio in marginal order of preference, ABRICOT DE L’OASIS, INDIAN STREAM and DEGOOCH get the nod over PAIR OF JACKS who represents Malcolm Jefferson who is almost walking on water of late, such has been the great form of the yard.
Favourite factor: Eleven of the seventeen market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions during the last fourteen years, with six favourites having won during the period. Ten of the last twelve gold medallists were returned at odds of 5/1 or less though that said, two of the last three winners scored at 25/1 & 20/1.
3.55: A small but select field contests this Listed event which looks sure to produce winners of many more races. CLIFFS OF DOVER has registered a hat trick within eight days of late, now having secured four of his last five races. The manner of those successes hardly screamed out to contest a Listed event at the next time of asking but then again, such contests can vary in terms of potential and Paul Nicholls knows the time of day in a couple of seconds compared to the number of hours is takes to kick start what passes as a brain this side of the message. Alan King has a likely sort in MASTER BLUEYES which you might imagine, pitching the dual flat winner in at this level on his NH debut. Alan also saddles RAINBOW DREAMER, though MASTER BLUEYES would only need to have his hurdling 90% right to get the measure of his stable companion from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: Favourites have won five of the last twelve events and alongside a 200/1 winner six years ago, other gold medallists during the period scored at 28/1-18/1-12/1!
4.30: Six of the nine renewals in recent times have been won by horses carrying a minimum burden of 11 stones, statistics which led me to leading with last year’s 6/1 winner BLUE KASCADE who returns to defend his crown. Sandy Thomson’s course and distance winner looks primed to go close again, with connections possibly having most to fear from the likes of BERTALUS and QUEEN’S BAY.
Favourite factor: Only three of the eleven favourites have finished in the frame during the last eleven years (via nine renewals). The statistics include two (7/4 & 11/8) winners, whilst the last eight gold medallists have scored at a top price of 13/2.
5.00: All eight winners have carried a minimum burden of 10-9 whereby the bottom five horses in the list are eliminated from my enquiries, taking potential jockey claims into consideration. IMPROVE is partnered by Lizzie Kelly which is worth a good few pounds in this conditional jockey’s event, the NH version of an apprentice race essentially. Others for the overnight mix include Donald McCain’s recent Uttoxeter winner THYNE GOLD alongside the wonderfully named CHARLIE WINGNUT. The fact that I have a son who could be referred to as ‘Charlie Fruitcake’ makes the name all the more amusing!
Favourite factor: Five of the last six favourites have finished in the frame, stat which include one winner. Seven of the eight gold medallists thus far have been returned in double figures including Traffiker at 16/1, who was one of only three horses mentioned in the analysis by yours truly two years ago.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Wetherby card on Friday – 5 year records at Wetherby alongside profit/loss figures:
7 runners – Phil Kirby (12/81 – loss of 14 points)
5—Neil Mulholland (5/14 – Profit of 3 points)
4—Micky Hammond (15/165 – loss of 56 points)
3—Sue Smith (29/193 – loss of 64 points)
2—Jenny Candlish (2/37 – loss of 26 points)
2—Brian Ellison (16/96 – Profit of 5 points)
2—Malcolm Jefferson (12/77 – loss of 7 points)
2—Alan King (7/38 – loss of 16 points)
2—Charlie Longsdon (7/41 – loss of 12 points)
2—Dr Richard Newland (Profit of 9 points)
2—Dan Skelton (9/26 – Profit of 3 points)
2—Martin Todhunter (4/50 – loss of 33 points)
2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (6/36 – loss of 19 points)
2—Mark Walford (4/28 – Profit 9 points)
2—Simon Waugh (1/8 – Profits of 18 points)
+ 39 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
56 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Newmarket: £204.90 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced
Uttoxeter: £101.70 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced
Newcastle A/W: New meeting