NEWMARKET - SEPTEMBER 23
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £477.10 (6 favourites - 2 winners & 4 unplaced)
Friday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket:
Leg 1 (2.00): 6 (Promising Run), 10 (Laugh Aloud) & 8 (Carenot)
Leg 2 (2.35): 2 (Journey) & 11 (Shall We)
Leg 3 (3.10): 3 (Fair Eva), 4 (Glitter Girl) & 2 (Exmouth)
Leg 4 (3.45): 5 (Gifted Master), 6 (Nathra) & 4 (Forge)
Leg 5 (4.20): 8 (Red Label) & 1 (Alfarris)
Leg 6 (4.55): 9 (Via Serendipity) & 4 (Mudallel)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.55: Three-year-olds lead the four-year-olds 3-2, albeit via just five renewals have been contested to date whereby we can hardly claim that a trend is emerging. PROMISING RUN is the only runner in the race with winning form at the track and as the Hard Spun filly is able to boast successes in Group 2 & 3 company in the past, this Listed event should pose few (if any) problems. Connects of the Godolphin raider might have most to fear from the progressive William Haggas representative CARENOT (William is due to walk on water any time now) and John Gosden’s consistent performer LAUGH ALOUD. William’s other raider MUFFRI ‘HA is offered the overnight reserve nomination, though CARENOT offers genuine each way value from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: Favourites (we still await the first winner) have secured two silver medals and two of the bronze variety thus far via five races, securing toteplacepot positions on each occasion.
Record of course winners in the opening race:
1/2--Promising Run (good)
2.30: Sir Michael Stoute has secured two of the last six renewals in which he was represented and although this year's renewal looks to be a particularly open contest, stable representative SHALL WE appears to have as good a chance as most of the twelve fillies and mares which have been offered the green light. SHALL WE scored under yielding conditions earlier in the season and William Haggas was suggesting on Wednesday in a televised interview that ‘foggy mornings’ had returned to the heath whereby dew would probably prevent the ground from becoming too dry/fast this week. Before she started her career, John Gosden waxed lyrical ("She does everything right") about his Dubawi filly JOURNEY who returns to defend her crown, though faster conditions would be ideal. BEAUTIFUL ROMANCE completes my trio against the field. Saeed Bin Suroor’s horses were all wrong when she ran dismally last time out and with the stable seemingly having ‘turned the corner’ now, Saeed’s New Approach representative can figure prominently.
Favourite factor: Favourites of one description or another have won four of the last five renewals, make that six of the last ten if you want to delve back into the past a little further. During that time, nine of the ten gold medallists scored at a top price of 7/1, whilst ten of the last eleven market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.
Record of course winners in the second race on the card:
3.05: FAIR EVA is the obvious ‘media target’ given the race reviews she received when winning the ‘Juddmonte’ in scintillating style before bombing out in the Group 2 ‘Lowther’ event at York’s Ebor meeting recently. All fillies are entitled to one off day in my book and it was not as though she was beaten far on the Knavesmire. EXMOUTH and GLITTER GIRL add plenty of interest in a fascinating renewal of the 'Rockfel'.
Favourite factor: Although only one favourite has scored via the last nine renewals, five of the last ten market leaders have claimed Placepot positions. Nine of the last ten winners have scored at 11/1 or less.
3.40: Three-year-olds have won nine of the last eighteen renewals of this Group 3 contest, with all three vintage representatives boasting genuine claims this time around. GIFTED MASTER demands centre stage having won four of his five race here on the heath. Compared to FORGE and John Gosden’s filly NATHRA however, I guess that GIFTED MASTER looks a little more exposed now, having had five more races (twelve in total – half of which have been won) than the other relevant entries. Four races have slipped by since GIFTED MASTER won and connections will want to witness an improved display. The three older horses all have a degree of quality about them but I will stick to the figures which suggests than another junior representative will win the day.
Favourite factor: Five clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the last nineteen years, though just three of the other 15 market leaders additionally secured toteplacepot positions.
Record of course winners in the fourth event:
1/3—Custom Cut (good)
4/5—Gifted Master (2 x good to firm – good – good to soft)
1/3—Nathra (good to soft)
4.15: Luca Cumani has endured one of ‘those seasons’ like so many of the big players this year (Peter Chapple-Hyam has saddled just four turf winners this year as another example) but with yard having struck form of late, RED LABEL could be another winner for the team on Friday. Loud Jungle drums were beating about this Dubawi representative many months ago when Luca was quoted as saying that his April foal was the favourite of this year’s two-year-olds in the yard. Horses are handled tenderly at this stage however whereby when any chance of winning has gone, Placepot thoughts are not in the mind set of jockeys. Accordingly, I also offer up ALFARRIS for consideration. NO NOT AGAIN should not be entirely overlooked as the third placed effort on debut was not a not a bad run, given that Richard Hannon was struggling for winners (from a ratio perspective) at the time, whilst his Roderic O’ Connor raider was weak in the market as a 12/1 chance in a seven runner contest,
Favourite factor: Four favourites have obliged during the last eleven years, whilst seven market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science) during the study period.
4.50: VIA SERENDIPITY failed to build on a fine first bronze medal effort at York when subsequently beaten as an odds on chance at Yarmouth. That said, this appears to be the weaker of the two divisions, especially as jungle drums are only conspicuous by their absence relating to the seven newcomers in the contest. MUDALLEL is probably the pick of the opposition, with Ed Dunlop having suggested earlier in the year that this is a horse with a definite future. QULOOB is the other alternative option according to the gospel of yours truly.
Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous race on the card whereby the same stats apply.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newmarket card on Friday:
6 runners—John Gosden (7/37 this season – loss of 14 points to level stakes)
6—William Haggas (2/10 – loss of 2 points)
5—Luca Cumani (0/10)
4—Mark Johnton (4/37 – loss of 6 points)
4—David O’Meara (0/4)
3—Ralph Beckett (0/10)
3—Owen Burrows (0/5)
3—Richard Hannon (5/39 – loss of 3 points)
3—Hugo Palmer (2/15 – Profit of 1 point)
3—Sir Michael Stoute (4/21 – Profit of 3 points)
2—Conrad Allen (0/4)
2—Michael Appleby (0/7)
2—Alan Bailey (0/4)
2—Peter Chapple-Hyam (0/2)
2—Ed Dunlop (3/17 – loss of 4 points)
2—James Fanshawe (1/6 – Profit of 15 points)
2—Hughie Morrison (0/4)
2—Kevin Ryan (2/8 – Profit of 12 points)
2—Saeed Bin Suroor (3/21 – loss of 8 points)
2—Roger Varian (0/21)
+ 29 trainers with one runner
89 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Haydock: £1,266.20 – 6 favourites – 1 winner & 5 unplaced
Worcester: £27.50 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced
Newcastle: Not applicable as this is now an A/W meeting
Newmarket overview - relating to their juvenile events at 3.05, 4.15 & 4.50
5 year record of represented trainers in the two-year-old sector (stats compiled before Thursday's sport was contested):
0/6—Marcus Tregoning (Argentiere)
3/37—Sir Michael Stoute (Exmouth)
4/12—Roger Charlton (Fair Eva)
7/71—William Haggas (Glitter Girl)
13/77—Mark Johnston (Miss Infinity)
8/71—Richard Hannon (Nations Alexander)
1/17—Kein Ryan (Perfect Match)
No runners—Xavier Thomas-Demeaulte (Spain Burg)
7/71—William Haggas (Alfaaris)
1/10—Chris Wall (Big Sigh)
7/61—Charlie Hills (Doctor Bartolo)
0/4—Phil McEntee (Lincoln Day)
8/71—Richard Hannon (No Not Again)
3/32—Ed Dunlop (Ode To Paris)
1/4--Amanda Perrett (Red Emperor)
6/35—Luca Cumani (Red Label)
0/18—Peter Chapple-Hyam (Time Zone)
0/6—Conrad Allen (What A Surprise)
0/2—Simon Crisford (Century Dream)
0/23—Stuart Williams (Dancing Alligator)
7/71—William Haggas (Mathmix)
3/32—Ed Dunlop (Mudallel)
0/6—Conrad Allen (Qatar Lion)
No runners—Owen Burrows (Quloob)
0/11—Alan Bailey (Sasso Ferrato)
8/71—Richard Hannon (Sufi)
4/30—Hugo Palmer (Via Serendipity)