ASCOT – SEPTEMBER 30
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £290.20 (7 favourites - 1 winners - 3 placed - 3 unplaced)
Friday's Placepot permutation at Ascot:
Leg 1 (2.00): 4 (Gothic Empire), 5 (Lyfka) & 17 (Cricklewood Green)
Leg 2 (2.35): 11 (Fastnet Tempest), 3 (Carnival King) & 5 (Haaf A Sixpence)
Leg 3 (3.10): 10 (Symposium), 8 (War Whisper) & 5 (Sunflower)
Leg 4 (3.45): 2 (Ayoud) & 1 (Platitude)
Leg 5 (4.20): 1 (Brave Hero) & 2 (Hornsby)
Leg 6 (4.55): 1 (Mijhaar) & 10 (Golden Doyen)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.00: Three renewals to date hardly means that a trend has emerged thus far though that said, ten of the twelve horses to claim toteplacepot positions to date have carried a minimum burden of nine stones though unfortunately, all 18 horses qualify on this occasion. I have left the trend in for those of view that retain such records. Of more help this time around is the fact that four-year-olds come to the gig on a hat trick, with three of the four vintage representatives holding genuine chances from my viewpoint, namely GOTHIC EMPIRE, LYFKA and ARLECCHINO’S LEAP. If the vintage is to be denied the treble, last year’s winner CRICKLEWOOD GREEN could prove to be the joker in the pack with Ryan Moore booked to ride.
Favourite factor: Two of the four market leaders have secured Placepot positions (one winner) via three renewals.
Record of course winners in the first race:
1/4--Cricklewood Green (good)
2.35: Three-year-olds landed the first three of the five events, having also posted a 1-2-3 in the race four years ago. FASTNET TEMPEST and IN THE RED appear to be the best (relevant) entries on this occasion, though potentially serious rivals in CARNIVAL KING and HAAF A SIXPENCE lurk in the handicap. The first named Brian Meehan raider is visored for the first time, whilst HAAF A SIXPENCE could be classed as ‘well in’ (has won off a three point higher mark in the past) if his absence from the track does not kick in at the business end of proceedings.
Favourite factor: The five market leaders to date have snared one silver and one bronze medal (alongside toteplacepot positions) between them.
Record of course winners in the second contest on the card:
1/2--Bluegrass Blues (good to firm)
1/13—Pastoral Player (good)
3.10: 13 of the 14 winners have carried weights of 9-4 or less whereby Kadrizzi is excluded from my thoughts, albeit the apple-cart was overturned two years back when the successful favourite overcame the burden of 9-7 to score. SYMPOSIUM comes to the gig on a hat trick and with the William Haggas raider having won convincingly at Goodwood last time out, Josephine Gordon’s mount is the first name on the team sheet, especially with the pilot still proving to be great value for her three pound claim. WAR WHISPER and SUNFLOWER are feared most.
Favourite factor: 11 of the 14 favourites have reached the frame to date, which includes six of the last eleven winners of the contest.
Record of course winners in the third event:
1/2--Kadrizzi (good to firm)
3.45: All eleven horses to secure toteplacepot positions via five renewals to date have started at a top price of 5/1 and potentially fancied horses here which looked book to go close include PLATITUDE and the Dermot Weld Irish raider AYDOUN. Novalina is preferred to Fireglow of those lower down in the list, though the first named pair are expected to secure at least one Placpot position in a race in which I am forced to name just two horses for fear of offering too many permutations.
Favourite factor: This Listed event (commemorating the great name of Noel Murless) was dominated by the front pair in the market in the inaugural running, albeit the two horses finished the wrong way around from a ‘favourite perspective‘. The following 3/1 favourite evened the score against the old enemy before the 2013 marker leader was sunk without trace. The next 7/4 favourite secured the silver medal alongside a toteplacepot position before last year’s 6/4 market leader followed suit. The late BBC Broadcaster Julian Wilson once asked Noel Murless if he had told Lester Piggott how to ride the horse just after the pair had teamed up to win the Royal Hunt Cup at this venue to which Noel replied in Noel Coward fashion, “My dear fellow, one does not tell Mr Piggott how to ride a horse”! A classic retort from one of the best trainers ever to grace the turf.
4.20: The last five winners (of six in total) have carried 9-1 or more, as have 12 of the last 15 horses to have secured toteplacepot positions. BRAVE HERO and HORNSBY should figure prominently at the very least whilst TAKE THE HELM is one of the more attractive potential outsiders on the Ascot card on Friday.
Favourite factor: The seven favourites have secured five Placepot positions, three of which have won at 9/2-3/1-15/8.
4.55: Three-year-olds have won five of the last seven renewals of this event and yet this year's vintage representatives are only conspicuous by their absence! David O’Meara tends to do well with his ‘stayers’ whereby MIJHAAR is included in the Placepot equation alongside GOLDEN DOYEN from the Philip Hobbs yard, the five-year-old having shown plenty of ability on the level in days gone by.
Favourite factor: Two winning favourites have been recorded via the last 14 renewals though on the positive side, 13 gold medallists were sent off at odds of 9/1 or less during the period. Six of the last seven market leaders have all finished in the frame for good measure.
All my stats are bases on an exact science in terms of placed horses – 3rd placed horses in 5/6/7 runner events are deemed as ‘unplaced’ accordingly etc., etc.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Ascot card on Wednesday:
4—William Haggas (2/28 at Ascot this season - 6 point level stake loss)
4---Richard Hannon (6/72 - loss of 27 points
3—James Fanshawe (0/9)
3—David O’Meara (0/22)
2—Charlie Appleby (3/30 – exactly level on the season to date)
2—Alan Bailey (2/27 – loss of 17 points)
2—Ralph Beckett (1/17 – loss of 8 points)
2—Henry Candy (1/7 – loss of 2 points)
2—Dean Ivory (2/10 – Profit of 2 points)
2—Mark Johnston (4/49 – loss of 21 points)
2—Sylvester Kirk (0/15)
2—Phil McBride (1/4 – Profit of 17 points)
2—Brian Meehan (0/10)
2—Jamie Osborne (2/8 – Profit of 7 points)
2—Sir Michael Stoute (5/32 – Profit of 9 points)
+ 39 trainers with one entry
75 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Fontwell: £31.90 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 3 unplaced
Hexham: £ 35.50 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced
Newcastle: New (A/W) meeting