Placepot pointers – Friday September 9

DONCASTER - SEPTEMBER 9

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2015: £55.90 (6 favourites - 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Doncaster: 

Leg 1 (1.55): 4 (Nemoralia), 6 (Lumiere) & 7 (Mise En Rose)

Leg 2 (2.30): 4 (Legendary Lunch), 7 (The Last Lion) & 1 (Afandem)

Leg 3 (3.05): 11 (Wall Of Fire) & 6 (Polarisation)

Leg 4 (3.40): 6 (Quest For More), 1 (Burmese) & 9 (St Michel)

Leg 5 (4.15): 5 (Salsabell) & 7 (Tamool)

Leg 6 (4.50): 10 (Khairaat), 11 (Indulged) & 6 (Winterval)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.55: Three-year-olds have won 16 of the last 19 renewals (including 14 of the last 15) and with four of the seven declarations representing the junior vintage this time around (57% of the field), vintage representatives are 8/11 to extend their good run of results.  Middle to high numbers have generally held the edge down the years and taking all the stats and facts into account, my short list comprises of NEMORALIA, LUMIERE and MISE EN ROSE.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have won this race in the last nineteen years whilst eight market leaders have claimed toteplacepot position in the process.

Draw factor (seven furlongs):

4-15-8 (20 ran-good)

9-4-16 (15 ran-good)

3-6-1 (8 ran-good to soft)

16-17-1 (18 ran-good)

7-6-1 (11 ran-good)

10-7-9 (13 ran-good)

5-6-1 (10 ran-good to firm)

12-9-6 (12 ran-soft)

3-8-9 (15 ran-good to firm)

4-6-10 (9 ran-good)

7-2-13 (15 ran-good to firm)

6-16-19 (17 ran-good)

8-10-7 (15 ran-good to firm)

14-12-13 (13 ran-good)

13-7-3 (11 ran-good to firm)

9-5-2 (11 ran-good to firm)

5-4-11 (14 ran-good)

Record of the course winner in the opening race:

1/1--Nemoralia (good)

2.30: The Hannon stable has secured five of the last eleven renewals and having declared LEGENDARY LUNCH and GRIZZEL with chances here (especially from a toteplacepot perspective), Richard could improve the ratio further still.  Mark Johnston is another double handed trainer with definite claims though despite what the official ratings suggest, I prefer THE LAST LION to Yalta.  Course and distance winner AFANDEM is the other potential winner in the field from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Nine favourites have won during the last nineteen years, whilst 10 of the 21 market leaders secured toteplacepot positions.  Only one the last 69 horses sent off at 12/1 or more has won this race when sent off at odds of 12/1 or more, statistics which equate to a level stake loss of 51 points.

Draw factor (five furlongs):

3-6-1 (9 ran-good)

3-14-1 (14 ran-good)

3-2 (7 ran-good soft)

7-1-6 (9 ran-good)

2-4-1 (10 ran-good)

2-11-10 (12 ran-good)

9-2-4 (10 ran-good to firm)

11-7-6 (12 ran-soft)

4-3-6 (8 ran-good to firm)

6-9-4 (9 ran-heavy)

7-3-12 (11 ran-firm)

6-12-3 (13 ran-good)

8-7-1 (14 ran-good to firm)

13-12-14 (13 ran-good)

3-6-2 (11 ran-good to firm)

13-7-9 (14 ran-good to firm)

2-8-6 (13 ran-good)

5-1 (7 ran-good to firm)

Record of course winners in the second event on the card:

1/1--Afandem (soft)

1/1--The Last Lion (soft)

3.05: 15 of the last 19 winners have carried weights of 9-5 or less, whilst nine three-year-olds have won during the study period.  The only junior raider involved this time around WALL OF FIRE who is certainly 'well in' here, especially with Josephine Gordon reducing the burden further still via her useful three pound claim.  POLARISATION, CAYIRLI and FABRICATE represent the four-year-old vintag which has claimed three of the last four renewals.

Favourite factor: Five clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the last nineteen years, though only four of the other eighteen favourites claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.

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Record of the course winner in the third contest:

1/1--All Talk N No Do (good to firm)

3.40: Six-year-olds have won three of the last six renewals of the Doncaster Cup and with QUEST FOR MORE back in winning form, the lone vintage raider can go close in a typical staying event when consistent form lines are a fabrication of the truth!  I'll throw BURMESE and ST MICHEL into the toteplacepot mix, suggesting that we should get through to the fourth leg of out favourite wager accordingly. As much as I love this St Leger meeting, nothing would prize cash out of my pocket from a win perspective in this event.

Favourite factor: Six market leaders have won the Doncaster Cup since 1998, though 11 of the other 13 favourites during the study period finished out of the frame.

Doncaster record of runners in the Doncaster Cup:

1/2--Clever Cookie (soft)

1/1--Curbyourenthusiasm (good)

1/1--Mizzou (good to firm)

1/1--Quest For More (good)

1/1--Sheikhzayedroad (good)

4.15: I have offered the last two (8/1 & 15/8) winners of this event and in going for the hat trick, I'm opting for SALSABELL to supplement his Yarmouth victory despite the sharp step up in class. There was plenty to like about his debut seaside success, with connections probably having most to fear from TAAMOL and RODAINI.  It's worth noting in this competitive (year on year) event or at least it was, until Frankel won the 2010 renewal by thirteen lengths!

Favourite factor: Six of the last seven favourites have prevailed in this Listed event, whilst eight of the 11 renewals contested during the last 12 years were also secured by market leaders.

4.50: Three-year-olds have won seven of the last nine renewals of the Placepot finale, though vintage representatives are 6/5 to extend the good run of results before the form book is consulted.  Sir Michael Stoute's KHAIRAAT demands the call following a facile Pontefract success at the second time of asking following a promising debut.  INDULGED is considered 'next best' as far as the junior raiders are concerned, though four-year-old WINTERVAL cannot be dismissed at the overnight stage.

Favourite factor: Seven of the last nine winners have scored at a top price of 7/1, though four years have slipped by since back to back winning favourites were recorded in 2010/11.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Doncaster card on Friday (stats compiled before Thursday's sport was contested):

5--Mark Johnston (3/27 at Doncaster this season - winners at 7/2-9/4*-4/5*)

4--Richard Hannon (1/25 - winner at 10/1)

4--Hugo Palmer (2/5 - winners at 6/1 twice)

3--Charlie Appleby (7/12 - winners at 12/1-6/1-3/1-3/1**-11/10*-Evens*-3/10*)

3--Brian Ellison (2/30 - winners at 4/1 & 5/2*)

3--Brian Meehan (0/7)

3--Roger Varian (5/15 - winners at 7/1-13/8-13/8*-11/10*-8/13*)

2--Mick Channon (1/5 winner at 8/1)

2--Luca Cumani (3/10 - winners at 3/1-3/1-10/11*)

2--Seamus Durack (---)

2--Richard Fahey (5/62 - winners at 20/1-13/2-5/1-5/1-13/8*)

2--John Patrick Shanahan (0/1)

2--David Simcock (3/10 - winners at 7/2**-5/2-Evens*)

2--Sir Michael Stoute (6/12 - winners at 25/1-5/4*-5/6*-5/6*-5/6*-1/2*)

+ 27 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

66 declared runners

 

General overview - corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chester: £51.90 - 6 favourites - 2 winners - 3 placed - 1 unplaced

Salisbury: £43.40 - 6 favourites - 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced

Sandown: £31.40 - 8 favourites - No winners - 5 placed - 3 unplaced

 

Doncaster overview - Juvenile record of represented trainers in the relevant events at 2.30 & 4.15 (stats compiled before Thursday's sport was contested):

2.30:

5/33--Hugo Palmer (Afandem)

5/28--John Gosden (Ardad)

No runners--D J Bunyan (Hit The Bid)

9/69--Richard Hannon (Legendary Lunch & Grizzel)

0/1--Robert Cowell (Prince Of Lir)

0/4--Ann Duffield (Rainbow Mist)

8/70--Mark Johnston (The Last Lion & Yalta)

2/19--Clive Cox (Tis Marvellous)

0/7--Robert Eddery (Equimo)

4.15: 

4/25--Brian Meehan (Bacchus)

9/69--Richard Hannon (Larchmont Lad)

5/33--Hugo Palmer (Majoris)

1/2--Simon Crisford (Rodaini)

9/37--Charlie Appleby (Salsabell)

14/105--Richard Fahey (Senator)

3/12--Sir Michael Stoute (Taamol)

 

 

 

 

 

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