2.00: A few pieces of information before starting Monday's analysis relating to this new fixture. Ayr's fixture is also a new listing on the calendar and with heavy ground already in place on the west coast of Scotland, the heavy rain/hill snow which is forecast to hit the area as I write and throughout Sunday will not make for pleasant viewing, let alone trying to back winners! The other point to make relates to course winners here at Kempton on Monday. It's all too easy to witness 'at a glance' pointers such as course winners, though the essential point to make is to look further into the apparent 'edges' which media pointers offer. If you look at this fixture as an example, it is right and proper to point out that the winners of thirty five races at Kempton are involved on Monday. If you delve further into the facts and stats however, you will glean the information that even these course winners only average one win in every five races at the Sunbury circuit! Upwards and onwards by reporting that Amanda Perrett saddles just her second runner in 2016 in the opening race, with beaten (odds on) favourite FLIGHTY FILIA attempting to go two better than Blue Surf at Lingfield the other day, when Amanda's 11/4 chance was beaten less than two lengths. GUARDS CHAPEL is a definite danger from my viewpoint, arguably alongside LEDBURY.
Kempton record of course winners in the opening event:
2.30: Any support in the ring for Sir Mark Prescott's raider O'Connor's Girl should be heeded, especially with Mark having saddled a few winners of late. Should money fail to arrive for the Roderic O'Connor filly in this maiden event, we might presume that a reasonable handicap mark (this is her third run) could be in the offing on her bow in that sector of the sport, whereupon any losses here could be recovered 'next time out'. David Simcock's newcomer PLAYFUL DUDE would not have to be a particularly gifted individual to go close in this grade/company, whilst JAZZY is readily preferred to Fateh in this four runner 'win only' event.</p>
3.05: Stuart Williams did us a huge favour the other day when my 14/1 nap Invade did the business and having saddled five winners from his last seventeen runners, Stuart's Dick Turpin filly FABLE OF ARACHNE is the first name on the team sheet. A winner of two of her last six races, Oisin Murphy's mount comes to the gig as a beaten favourite via her previous assignment, though it's worth pointing out that FABLE OF ARACHNE was only beaten a length at Chelmsford that day despite finishing fourth. ROMANTIC COMEDY and CLIVE CLIFTON might offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings.
3.40: I was looking forward to course and distance winner EXALTED being dropped back in trip following his latest effort but I guess that connections believe that as a winner already over a mile, it is worth persevering with the Acclamation representative over this distance, at this venue at least. Four fellow C/D winners are in opposition however, with SPIRIT OF GONDREE arguably being the pick of the relevant quartet this time around. NAPOLEON SOLO and FARLETTI are others to consider.
Kempton record of course winners in the fourth event on the card:
2/19--Spirit Of Gondree
4.10: DOCTOR PARKES (contesting his 82nd race) is the other Stuart Williams representative on the card, with the ten-year-old attempting to land win number evelen in a fine career as an ageing handicapper. A dual all weather scorer, DOCTOR PARKES can become competitive again I'll wager, with connections probably having most to fear from LIGHT FROM MARS and Karl Burke's northern raider YEEOOW.
Kempton record of course winners in the fifth race:
4/21--Light From Mars
4.40: Ron Harris (ARIZONA SNOW) and Derek Shaw (INVECTUS HERO) have started the year well and their respective raiders boast each way chances, though similar comments could also be offered to the likes of MON PETITE FLEUR and course and distance winner JOLLY RED JEANZ in a competitive finale. I am slightly surprised that the latter named five-year-old has been dropped a further pound by the handicapper, given that JOLLY RED JEANZ was beaten less than two lengths last time out at Wolverhampton. Having won off marks of 64 & 65 in the past, Monday's figure of 55 offers an obvious pointer to the Loughrane representative, especially with the stable having greeted a winner at Lingfield on Thursday.
Kempton record of course winners in the toteplacepot finale:
2/7--Jolly Red Jeanz
All references to placed horses on these pages are based on an exact science regarding general place terms offered by bookmakers and totepool.com.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Kempton card on Monday:
1--Daniel Mark Loughnane
1--Sir Mark Prescott
52 declared runners
Three of the last seven A/W meetings at Kempton have produced dividends in excess of £1000, the average return during the period being: £729.46
Average Placepot dividends in 2016 (up to and including Saturday 9th January)
NH: £230.10 (15 meetings)
A/W: £212.15 (15 meetings)
Collective: £221.13 (30 meetings)