BRIGHTON – JUNE 11
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £325.70 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced)
Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:
Race 1: 60.5% units went through – 11/4 – 2/1* - 25/1
Race 2: 44.1% of the remaining units when through – 11/2 & 9/4*
Race 3: 8.3% of the remaining units went through – 16/1 – 12/1 – 20/1 (6/1)
Race 4: 30.2% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 & 4/1 (11/8)
Race 5: 48.9% of the remaining units went through – 11/4 -7/4* - 16/1
Race 6: 68.7% of the units secured the dividend – Evens* & 11/2
- Speculative investors might have thought that they had a four figure dividend in the making last year as the Placepot was worth £33.02 at the halfway stage and £109.04 after four legs. That said, £325.70 is not a bad wage on a daily basis for most folk.
Monday's Placepot permutation at Brighton:
Leg 1 (2.00): 2 (Livvys Dream), 1 (Claudine) & 6 (Angel Of The North)
Leg 2 (2.30): 4 (Aegean Mist) & 6 (More Than Likely)
Leg 3 (3.00): 1 (Lady Of Petra), 4 (Sunday Best) & 2 (Medici Oro)
Leg 4 (3.30): 2 (Maori Bob) & 6 (Genetics)
Leg 5 (4.00): 2 (Roundabout Magic), 1 (Big Lachie) & 5 (Ask the Guru)
Leg 6 (4.30): 1 (Impart), 5 (Give Em A Clump) & 3 (New Rich)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
2.00: There will be worse outsiders on the card than ANGEL OF THE NORTH today I’ll wager and the 11/1 quote in a couple of places this morning is already looking under threat. That said, LIVVYS DREAM and CLAUDINE are more logical winners of the contest from what we have witnessed thus far.
Favourite factor: Both market leaders have secured silver medals alongside Placepot positions to date.
2.30: AEGEAN MIST looks the only possible danger to MORE THAN LIKELY, with Richard Hughes (2/4 for at the track) trying to ward off his former employers (‘Team Hannon) with his latter named Coach House filly who ran well to run third over this trip at the third time of asking at Windsor. AEGEAN MIST is expected to run the hot favourite close though from my viewpoint, especially with the Hannon juveniles seemingly needing their first outings this term. Accordingly, Sean Levey’s mount should be ready to challenge for major honours today.
Favourite factor: One of the two market leaders thus far picked up a Placepot position via a silver medal effort two years ago.
3.00: I’m quite happy to absorb the rule 4 deduction having been on LADY OF PETRA at 20/1 in the dead of night, a quote which might halve in price by the time that flag fall arrives. I wouldn’t entirely rule out another ‘roughie’ in SUNDAY BEST personally, especially looking at the favourite stats below, albeit it is early doors as far as the contest goes just now. I guess MEDICI ORO is the player to consider from further up the betting in a race which will take little winning.
Favourite factor: Detectives are still out searching for the 11/10 and 6/1 favourites in this race to date.
3.30: GENETICS and WHINGING WILLY (offered in that order of preference) have to be considered in such a weak race, though MAORI BOB should take the beating, especially with a five pound claimer reducing the burden today. Cameron Noble is the relevant rider and with 29 gold medalists to his name alongside a 25% strike rate for Michael Bell via six winners, MAORI BOB is expected to return to winning ways. ‘Bob’ is now seven pounds better off (taking the jockey claim into account) with Regicide for a two and a quarter length deficit the last day.
Favourite factor: Only one of the three market leaders has secured a Placepot position via two renewals. That said, it’s only fair to point out that aside from a dead heat, both of the 6/4 joint favourite could not snare the ‘win only’ prize two years back.
Record of the trio of course winners in the third race:
3/13—Whinging Willie (2 x good to firm & good)
2/2—Fair Power (good to firm & good to soft)
2/3—Archimento (good to firm and good to soft)
4.00: 10/1 is a slight insult to dual (good to firm) course winner ASK THE GURU from my reading of the race, especially with Michael Attwater having saddled winners at the corresponding meeting in recent years. I guess the form book reads fairly accurately however, whereby more logical winners include fellow course winner ROUNDABOUT MAGIC and BIG LACHIE.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 7/4 market leader snared a Placepot position without winning the relevant event.
Record of the two course winners in the field:
1/2—Roundabout Magic (good to firm)
2/6—Ask The Guru (2 x good to firm)
4.30: DEEDS NOT WORDS won this event off 10-8 twelve months ago (his last victory) whereby his 9-10 burden today could feel like something of a feather-weight to Michael Wigham’s seven-year-old handicapper. Regular readers will know that I have chased this Royal Applause gelding up hill and down dale in the past, none more so that when securing a double figure price ‘last time out’ which was backed down to less than half those odds before being withdrawn. There is no doubting his chance but inconsistency has crept into his work now and I’m prepared to sit back and watch him win at ‘cramped’ odds compared to what might be on offer if raised in class for a subsequent race in better company next time out, should Tom Queally’s mount win today. Preference from a Placepot angle is offered to IMPART, GIVE EM A CLUMP and NEW RICH. Milly Naseb’s latter named mount might have been the call from a win perspective but for digesting his 0/24 win record on turf.
Favourite factor: Both (9/4 and Even money) favourites have obliged thus far.
Record of the two course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/1—Deeds Not Words (good to firm)
1/4—Strictly Carter (god to firm)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.