BRIGHTON - SEPTEMBER 11
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £168.60 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unoplaced)
Monday's Placepot permutation at Brighton:
Leg 1 (2.25): 6 (Flowing Clarets), 2 (Storm Cry) & 4 (Monteamiata)
Leg 2 (2.55): 4 (Rastrelli) & 5 (Sarstedt)
Leg 3 (3.25): 1 (Black Caesar), 4 (King Of Swing) & 7 (East Coast Lady)
Leg 4 (3.55): 1 (Delannoy), 6 (Ablaze) & 7 (African Quest)
Leg 5 (4.25): 4 (Av A Word) & 3 (Haulani)
Leg 6 (4.55): 11 (Ronni Layne), 8 (Latest Quest) & 4 (Luxford)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.25: The going is officially soft overnight, though it’s worth noting that it is pouring down here in Bristol in the middle of the night, whilst 50mph winds accompany the wet stuff so it all depends on what transpires on the south coast over the next few hours I guess. Upwards and onward in positive mode by informing that four-year-olds have won three of the six contests to date whilst securing six of the 10 available toteplacepot positions thus far (vintage was not represented last year). Only John Bridger appears to have been live to the stat having declared FLOWING CLARETS down at the bottom of the handicap. The two three-year-olds in the field represent the biggest threat from my viewpoint, namely STORM CRY and MONTEAMIATA.
Favourite factor: Four of the seven market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include three (8/11-6/4-11/4**) winners.
Record of course winners in the opening race:
1/7—One Big Surprise (good to firm)
4/23—Whitecrest (2 x good – good to firm – good to soft)
2.25: Have you ever had the feeling that ‘new rules’ are invented for the benefit of bookmakers and not punters? Look at the ‘favourite stats’ below if you want to take issue with that comment. Freedom of speech allowed here guys, freedom of speech. Only three of the six runners can be taken seriously though it looks as though Bet365 have accommodated a few quid at 50’s about Swift Fox because in a race like this, that’s about as much as the bookmakers want to lay. On a potentially windy day on uncertain ground at the time of writing, I’m going to side with the pair with a couple of races under their respective belts already, namely RASTRELLI and SARSTEDT though of course, Mark Johnston’s newcomer Illusional would not have to be out of the ordinary to make a complete fool of me.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the card via its novice status. That said, the distance and class of the race has not changed, whereby I am listing the following stats for the last time if you believe they are relevant (like yours truly) this afternoon. All eight favourites have finished in the money thus far via seven renewals, one market leader having been withdrawn before a new market was able to be formed. Five (8/15-8/11-5/4-11/8-2/1) favourites have obliged to date but note that market leaders at odds of 1/3 & 8/11 have been beaten from a win perspective thus far. Two gold medallists were returned at 40/1 and 25/1.
3.25: Five-year-olds have won three of the last five renewals (when represented) but William Stone is the only trainer to have smelt the coffee in recent days, having declared the lone vintage representative EAST COAST LADY. I fully appreciate that the Kodiac mare has a lot on her plate here, though 9/1 was a very acceptable price about the five-year-old winner (Jackblack) at Fontwell yesterday (as advised) who was one of only two relevant entries, vintage representatives having won the previous seven renewals of the race. Make that eight now! I will concede that more likely winners include recent scorers BLACK CAESAR and KING OF SWING but at 28/1, East Coast Lady is surely worth a florin each way. Where else can you read this 'informed nonsense'?
Favourite factor: Only two of the ten favourites (via eight renewals) have reached the (exact science) frame to date (no winners).
Record of course winners in the third event on the card:
4/14—Black Caesar (2 x good & 2 x good to soft)
4/16—Good Luck Charm (2 x good to firm – good – firm)
1/5—Sarangoo (good to soft)
1/1—El Torito (good to firm)
3/12—Live Dangerously (2 x good to soft & good)
3.55: All seven winners carried a minimum weight of 8-13, as have 15 of the 18 horses to have secured toteplacepot positions thus far. Six of the seven declarations qualify for the overnight short list, the pick of which could include DELANNOY and BROUGHTONS ADMIRAL. Neil Mulholland saddled a winner under the other code down the road at Fontwell yesterday and though searching for his first winner at Brighton at the seventh attempt, Neil will have some confidence going into the contest. Below the trend barrier, I note that there has been overnight interest in AFRICAN QUEST which might have something to do with a hike up in trip for Gary Moore’s filly. Ablaze is another to take into consideration in what looks to be a trappy event.
Favourite factor: Four of the eight market leaders have finished in the frame following seven renewals, statistics which include one (9/4) winner. Search parties are still out looking for the beaten 4/7 favourite who missed out on a Placepot position two years ago.
4.25: All five winners have carried a minimum of nine stones at odds of 10/1-7/1-7/1-4/1-2/5*. Unfortunately (always looking for an edge) five of the six runners qualify on this occasion, with the unbeaten Brighton pair AV A WORD and HAULANI arguably offering value for money here in a race which will not take a great deal of winning. Philip Hide (HAULANI) has saddled more winners on the level this season (sixteen in total) than the trainer managed during the last three seasons collectively added to the fact that 44% of those gold medallists were saddled here at Brighton in 2017. The 3/3 record of Av A Word is obviously factor to take into consideration, especially of the wet stuff swerves the south downs.
Favourite factor: Only two of the five favourites have claimed Placepot positions to date, with last year’s 2/5 market leader having prevailed.
Record of course winners in the fifth race:
1/1--Haulani (good to soft)
3/3—Av A Word (2 x good to firm & good)
4.55: Horses carrying 8-13 or less have claimed all five renewals of the Placepot finale to date, statistics which bring in the likes of RONNI LAYNE and LATEST QUEST (via a claiming pilot) into the overnight mix. 9/1 is still available regarding RONNIE LAYNE who comes to the gig bang on the 8-13 mark with Conrad Allen having saddled a winner the other day at Wolverhampton. I’ve a notion that Paddy Power’s quote might not last too long this morning, win, lose or draw. LUXFORD is the potential villain of the peace from my viewpoint, with John Best having saddled two of his last five runners to winning effect.
Favourite factor: Two of the seven favourites have finished in the frame in the toteplacepot finale via five renewals, whilst we still await the first successful market leader from a win perspective.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Brighton card on Monday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
4 runners—Gary Moore (7/34 +35)
3—John Bridger (2/26 – loss of 15 points)
3—John Jenkins (0/2)
3—Mark Johnston (6/15 +4)
2—Jim Boyle (4/23 +39)
2—Richard Hannon (7/25 +19)
2—Philip Hide (7/23 - +11)
2—Richard Hughes (6/34 - loss of 3 points)
2—Sylvester Kirk (3/19 – level profit/loss on the season)
+ 35 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
58 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Newton Abbot: This is a new fixture on the racing calendar
Perth: £1,288.70 – 7 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 5 unplaced