KEMPTON – NOVEMBER 13
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £164.90 (6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced)
Monday's Placepot permutation at Kempton:
Leg 1 (12.50): 3 (Mr Whipped) & 2 (Irish Prophecy)
Leg 2 (1.20): 3 (Eyesopenwideawake), 6 (Aficonado) & 7 (Bad Boy Du Pouldu)
Leg 3 (1.50): 11 (Secret Investor), 1 (Black Mischief) & 5 (Earth Storm)
Leg 4 (2.25): 1 (Give Me A Copper) & 2 (Three Ways)
Leg 5 (2.55): 2 (Who Dares Wins), 6 (Maestro Royal) & 1 (The Last Samurai)
Leg 6 (3.30): 2 (Whisper) & 1 (Clan Des Obeaux)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.50: Although only 49 runners made the final cut, this is still 12 more than there were declared for the meeting last year! Aside from the main meetings, there is something about Kempton Park that does not attract that many trainers, aside from the usual suspects! Upwards and onward by suggesting that yesterday’s Sandown winner IRISH PROPHECY was still in the mix at the time of writing (4.00 this morning) and given his effortless stroll on Sunday, I guess there is a chance that Emma Lavelle’s Azamour gelding will turn up for the gig. Either way, I’m not sure if an enquiry has been announced to look into that event yesterday as some senior jockeys were guilty of letting the odds on favourite get an incredibly easy lead from the outset whereby there never seemed a chance that any one of his rivals could possibly catch the market leader. ASHKOUL ran off a mark of 94 on the level on one occasion, a rating that would put him in with a chance here, though we have to take his ‘timber-topping’ on trust on his debut at this discipline. Whatever his future, the chances are that the Skelton team will have to play second fiddle to MR WHIPPED here (and Emma’s raider for that matter) if Nicky Henderson’s Beneficial gelding is as good as the jungle drums suggest.
Favourite factor: Nine of the twelve favourites during the last eleven years have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include six winners.
Record of the course winner in the opening event:
1/1—Irish Prophecy (good)
1.20: This is arguably the hardest puzzle to solve on the card and with little in the way of history to help us out, I’m hoping that EYESOPENWIDEAWAKE can build on his summer success now taking to fences. If Harry Whittington’s raider gets his own way out in front, Harry Bannister’s mount might prove difficult to catch at a venue which suits such tactics. Harry (Whittington) has saddled three of his last nine runners to winning effect, with connections possibly (I repeat possibly) having most to fear from AFICIONADO and BAD BOY DU POULDU in a tricky event to evaluate. Favorito Buck’s will probably attract more Placepot units than he is entitled to via the Paul Nicholls factor whereby there is little value in adding the Ditcheat representative into the equation.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 7/4 market leader finished last of the three finishers in a four runner ‘win only’ contest.
1.50: Five-year-olds have won five of the last eight renewals of this contest with vintage representatives around the 8/11 mark to extend the good run before the form book is consulted via eight of the fourteen declarations. Plenty of in-form trainers are involved in the contest and my trio against the remaining eleven contenders consists of SECRET INVESTOR, BLACK MISCHIEF and EARTH STORM.
Favourite factor: Seven of the last eleven favourites have finished in the frame (exact science), statistics which include five success market leaders from a win perspective.
2.25: There is no point beating about the bush in this oh so disappointing affair by informing that both horses will be added into the permutation, especially after GIVE ME A COPPER blotted his copybook at Kelso last time out. That said, the Paul Nicholls raider has plenty in hand over THREE WAYS according to official figures whereby an error free round would surely be enough to seal the prize. The early signs suggest that the trade press quote of 4/11 is not short enough, with 1/4 being the likely SP of the projected winner. If the odds do not look that different to the untrained eye, I’m duty bound to inform that the differential is equivalent to a horse being backed from 9/1 to 5/1.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 8/11 favourite duly obliged.
2.55: MAESTRO ROYAL represents Nicky Henderson who has saddled three of his last seven runners in the race to winning effect. Another horse that could outrun his odds is THE LAST SAMURI for a couple of reasons. Kim Bailey saddled the winner of this event last year, whilst Kim has greeted four of his last seven runners in the enclosure reserved for winners. Add the fact that just five race has passed since THE LAST SAMURI was made one of the 8/1 joint faviourites for the Grand National in 2016 whereby you start to think that 20/1 in this grade/company looks reasonably interesting. For the record, the nine-year-old (tackling timber instead of the huge Aintree fences) has gained six of his eight wins between November and January. More logical minds might home in on the chance of WHO DARES WINS who is one of Alan King’s better dual purpose horses and is fit from a profitable campaign on the level.
Favourite factor: Although only three favourites have won during the last eleven years, seven gold medallists were sent off at a top price of 10/3. ‘Coincidentally’, seven favourites finished in the frame.
Record of the course winner in the fifth race:
1/1—The Last Samurai (good to soft)
3.30: Nicky Henderson (WHISPER) leads Paul Nicholls (CLAN DES OBEAUX) 3-2 via the last nine renewals of this event and the figures suggest that Nicky can extend the lead in this Graduation event. Only Might Bite has beaten Whisper via his last four assignments, form which was well and truly franked at Sandown yesterday. Whisper beat Clan Des Obeaux by half a length at Cheltenham back in January and is five pounds better off into the bargain, which would not be the case in a handicap event!
Favourite factor: Favourites of one description or another have won seven of the eight renewals thus far, with eight of the ten market leaders securing Placepot positions.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Kempton card on Monday – followed by this season’s stats at the course and then their five year record at the Sunbury circuit:
4 runners—Nicky Henderson (2/8 – Slight profit) & 52/194 – loss of 4 points
4—Paul Nicholls (5/7 +2) & 32/146 – loss of 9 points
3—Gary Moore (0/6) & 5/83 – loss of 47 points
3—Dan Skelton (0/6) & 8/90 – loss of 63 points
2—Kim Bailey (0/1) & 5/48 – loss of 7 points
2—Harry Fry (1/4 – Slight loss) & 10/53 – loss of 20 points
2—Chris Gordon (0/1) & 8/45 +46
2—Emma Lavelle (0/1) & 9/65 – loss of 35 points
2—Ben Pauling (0/1) & 4/29 – loss of 16 points
2—Harry Whittinghton (1/2 +4) & 3/14 +7
+ 23 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
49 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Carlisle: £27.30 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced
Southwell (A/W): This is a new fixture on the racing calendar