WINDSOR – APRIL 14
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £50.10 (6 favourites - 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)
Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor:
Leg 1 (5.40): 3 (Flowing Clarets), 1 (Captain Ryan), 14 (Kath’s Boy) & 11 (Royal Normandy)
Leg 2 (6.10): 3 (Jupiter) & 4 (Lansky)
Leg 3 (6.40): 1 (Medalla De Oro) & 3 (Fanfair)
Leg 4 (7.10): 8 (Seniority), 5 (Don’t Give Up) & 4 (Chiefofchiefs)
Leg 5 (7.40): 4 (Codicil), 3 (Noble Manners) & 2 (Barbarianatthegate)
Leg 6 (8.10): 7 (Golden Easter) & 3 (Harlequin Storm)
Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
5.40: FLOWING CLARETS should be difficult to kick out of the frame at the frame at the very least here though from a win perspective, her actual odds could be classed as nearer 5/1 if we take her 4/24 stats into account. That said, we have to the opposition into account whereby I could happily get involved at 4/1 (maybe!). CAPTAIN RYAN and ROYAL NORMANDY are offered up as alternative each way options. Outsiders from the Tony Carroll yard invariably attract my attention in this type of ‘ordinary’ race whereby the chance of KATH’S BOY is respected, though the 20/1 odds in the trade press look fanciful.
Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to open proceedings at Windsor on Monday.
Record of course winners in the opening event:
1/3—Flowing Clarets (soft)
6.10: Ojala has attracted some win and place money overnight though as far as possible winners are concerned, LANSKY and JUPITER are more logical calls. As far as logic is concerned however, ‘newcomers’ like LANSKY are ‘speculative’ to a fashion, though you catch my drift. Henry Candy did yours truly a favour yesterday by snaring a 6/1 double via just the two runners on the day whereby JUPITER is the marginal call this time around given his experience as much as anything else.
Favourite factor: This is another new race on the Windsor programme.
6.40: Although FANFAIR was a slightly disappointing favourite last time out, it’s worth recalling that his previous two victories were gained under different ground conditions which makes it impossible to entirely rule Richard Hannon’s raider out if the mix. Becuna could be one of the better speculative options if you feel that a bookmaker’s result is on the cards, though Peter Chapple-Hyam’s recent course winner MEDALLA DE ORO showed much improved form have undergone a gelding operation. I’m not talking after the event because I offered the Teofilo representative a decent chance seven days ago.
Favourite factor: I can’t quite believe that this is another new contest on the Windsor card though seemingly, it is.
Record of course winners in the third race:
1/1—Medalla De Oro (good to soft)
7.10: Four of the five three-year-olds thus far have finished in the money, statistics which include a 4/1 winner. This year's two relevant declarations look well worth a Placepot interest, namely DON’T GIVE UP and SENIORITY who are difficult to split from my viewpoint. Saeed Bin Suroor is enduring a difficult season by his high standards even though three of his last eleven runners have scored. The opposite is true of William Haggas of course, whereby SENIORITY is the marginal call, albeit mainly from a value for money perspective. If you can obtain the 11/1 offer by BetBright this morning, I’ve a notion you will ‘beat the book’, especially as Seniority is the only runner emerging from the Haggas stable today. If the junior runners are to be denied, the most likely joker in the pack will probably prove to be CHIEFOFCHIEFS whose trainer Charlie Fellowes has secured two victories via his last five representatives. IF you have some cash to spare after the previous events today, a saver on MISTER CHOW might not go unrewarded given the form of the Gary Moore horses of late. Purely speculative I assure you but at 7/1 (Bet365 & Skybet at the time of writing), there are worse ‘throwaway’ odds on offer today.
Favourite factor: Four favourites to date have just one silver medal (and a solitary Placepot position) to show for their endeavours.
Record of course winners in the fourth contest on the card:
1/1--Toulson (good to soft)
1/1—Celebration Day (good to firm)
1/2—Chief Of Chiefs (good)
7.40: The 9/4 quote in the trade press about CODICIL will not be obtainable according to the gospel of yours truly, with Sir Mark Prescott’s Lawman filly probably set to be returned at around the 13/8 mark. If that does not sound like a great deal of difference, it’s worth pointing out that the differential is roughly the same as a horse being back into 5/1 from 9/1. BARBARIANATTHEGATE was not available at double figure prices for long overnight before being trimmed into 9/1 almost across the board. NOBLE MANNERS fought on well to score narrowly at Newmarket after a typically ‘gutsy’ performance from a Mark Johnston representative. It’s worth noting that the front pair finished five lengths clear of the third horse that day under yielding conditions.
Favourite factor: All four market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include two (8/11 & 11/10) winners. That said, the bad news is that Permian won this event twelve months ago, with Mark Johnston’s fine thoroughbred having suffered a fatal injury at the weekend. Commiserations are offered to all the connections this morning.
8.10: Three-year-olds tend to get the better of their elders in these mixed vintage maiden events and so it has proved in this contest as all four winners have hailed from the junior ranks. Ex Kevin Ryan inmate GOLDEN EASTER ran well enough to reward connection with place money on her first outing for Robert Cowell at Brighton recently (despite being a beaten odds on favourite) and a repeat of that effort would probably be good enough to snare the spoils in this grade/company. HARLEQUIN STORM is expected to offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings.
Favourite factor: The Placepot ratio of 3/3 is in place via four renewals, given that one of the favourites was withdrawn before a new market could be formed
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Windsor card on Monday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
4 runners—David Evans (4/49 – loss of 26 points)
3—John Bridger (1/18 – loss of 9 points)
3—Richard Hannon (10/42 – Profit of 9 points)
2—Michael Bell (2/12 – Slight profit)
2—Robert Cowell (2/3 – Profit of 5 points)
2—Charlie Hills (3/20 – loss of 2 points)
2—Brian Meehan (2/10 – slight loss)
2—Joseph Tuite (1/10 – loss of 2 points)
+ 38 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
58 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Ayr: 119.20 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 5 placed – 1 unplaced
Ripon: This is a new fixture on the racing calendar
Wolverhampton: £79.70 – 6 favouriters – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced