PLUMPTON – MARCH 14
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £123.30 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 placed)
Average Placepot dividend (all codes) in 2016 (calendar year): £651.05
Average NH Placepot dividend in 2016: £919.56
Average Plumpton Placepot dividend in 2016: £890.76 (5 meetings)
Monday's Placepot permutation at Plumpton:
Leg 1 (2.10): 1 (Clondaw Cian) & 3 (Solomn Grundy)
Leg 2 (2.40): 2 (Johns Luck) & 3 (Bawden Roacks)
Leg 3 (3.15): 1 (Agincourt Reef) & 2 (Sportsreport)
Leg 4 (3.45): 1 (Bells Of Ailsworth), 2 (Saucysioux) & 9 (Flugzeug)
Leg 5 (4.15): 2 (Hope's Wishes) & 3 (Deja Bougg)
Leg 6 (4.45): 3 (Burgess Dream), 1 (Kaprcorne) & 2 (Head Spin)
Suggested stake: 144 lines to a 20p unit stake
2.10: Eight of the last eleven winners have been sent off at a top price of 5/2 (see further stats below). Five and six-year-olds had (equally) shared the previous six renewals before last year's successful older raider tilted the edge towards the six-year-olds The pair of six-year-olds look like producing the winner of the contest, with CLONDAW CIAN marginally preferred to SOLUMN GRUNDY, despite the fact that Neil Mulholland had won with four of his last seven runners at the time of writing. Never Equalled is the other potential winner of the opening contest, though I personallyprefer the other pair.
Favourite factor: Nine of the 15 favourites have won, though three of the other six market leaders finished out of the frame in races won by outsiders horses sent off at 33/1 (twice)--20/1--8/1--5/1--13/8.
2.40: Seven-year-olds have won five of the last eight renewals and JOHNS LUCK and BAWDEN ROCKS are the two main representatives ahead of Spartilla from my viewpoint. David Bridgwater's Bawden Rocks suffers from seconditis I'm afraid whereby preference is for Neil Mulholland's Turtle Island representative.
Favourite factor: 20 of the last 21 available toteplacepot positions have been claimed by horses starting at 8/1 or less (four winning favourites). Two of the other six market leaders secured toteplacepot positions.
Plumpton record of course winners in the second race on the card:
3.15: Nine of the last ten winners have been returned at a top price of 9/2 whilst six of the seven most recent gold medallists were burdened with a minimum weight of 11-4. I will adhere to the weight trends, whilst also suggesting that AGINCOURT REEF will certainly fit into the starting price trend, as might SPORTSREPORT.
Favourite factor: Six of the 10 favourites (three winners) have claimed toteplacepot positions to date.
Plumpton record of course winners in the third contest:
1/8--Bobbits Way (C&D winner)
2/14--Goring Two (C&D winner)
3.45: Six-year-olds have won five of the last 13 contests, even though vintage representatives were conspicuous by their absence four years ago. This year's relevant contenders are BELLS OF AILSWORTH and course winner SAUCYSIOUX who should see us safely through to the penultimate leg of our favourite wager if we were live coming into this contest. FLUGZEUG could only finish fourth in this event last year but might do better this time around having scored at 33/1 at Kempton last time out.
Favourite factor: Two favourites have obliged via the last 11 renewals (the market leader was withdrawn last year) during which time, the other winners were returned at 33/1--11/1--8/1--6/1--6/1--4/1--4/1--7/2--7/2. Just three of the last seven market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science).
Plumpton record of course winners in the fourth event:
3/14--Flugzeug (Dual C&D winner)
4.15: This handicap hurdle is confined to mares which is not conducive to creating a ‘bank’ for the Cheltenham Festival in principle though that said, three of the five favourites have obliged, whilst the 2013 market leader was beaten by the minimum margin. Last year's well beaten beaten favourite MAY HILL tries again, whilst others for the melting pot include HOPE'S WISHES and DEJA BOUGG.
Favourite factor: All four favourites had claimed tote placepositions via three gold medals and one of the silver variety before last year's 5/4 favourite was sunk without trace.
4.45: Seven-year-olds lead the eight-year-olds 4-3 via the last ten renewals during the last eleven in this toteplacepot finale. Indeed, seven-year-olds have won four of the last seven contests whereby lone vintage representative BURGESS DREAM is the first name on the team sheet. KAPRICORNE should get the better of HEAD SPIN for the runner-up spot, though nothing is set in stone at the time of writing.
Favourite factor: 25 of the 27 horses to claim toteplacepot positions to date started at 9/1 or less. Five of the 11 market leaders have finished in the frame, statistics which include four winners.
Plumpton record of course winners in the toteplacepot finale:
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Plumpton card on Monday:
3--Chris Gordon (Plumpton stats this season: 1/20)
3--Gary Moore (7/37)
3--Neil Mulholland (1/7)
3--Seamus Mullins (0/13)
3--Anna Newton-Smith (1/15)
3--Tim Vaughan (0/8)
2--David Bridgwater (2/10)
2--Diana Grissell (1/8)
2--Paul Henderson (1/13)
2--Michael Roberts (1/5)
+ 18 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
44 declared runners