WINDSOR - OCTOBER 16
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £68.50 (6 favourites - 1 winner - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)
Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor:
Leg 1 (2.00): 7 (La Belle Maison), 5 (Adulate) & 4 (Aquadabra)
Leg 2 (2.30): 7 (Garrick) & 5 (Sparte Quercus)
Leg 3 (3.00): 1 (All Out), 5 (Desert Spirit) & 4 (Convinced)
Leg 4 (3.30): 8 (Clef), 9 (Sandy Shores) & 4 (Killay)
Leg 5 (4.00): 2 (Zeelander) & 6 (Miss Liguria)
Leg 6 (4.30): 4 (Paddy Power), 13 (Abiento) & 7 (Buccaneers Vault)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.00: Four of the six Placepot positions have been claimed by horses carrying a minimum burden of 9-2, stats which include both (16/1 & 7/1) winners. It’s (arguably) worth noting that Richard Fahey saddles more runners here at Windsor today (five in total) that he has done all season, whereby LA BELLE MAISON might have enough about her to win at the fourth time of asking in a two-year-old handicap which should not prove difficult to secure. Paul Hanagan has made the long trip down to Windsor which is also worth noting, given that the stable has 13 runners spread across the country this afternoon. The pick of opposition from the ‘superior’ sector of the weights (albeit via a brief trend) should prove to be ADULATE and AQUADABRA, given that any value in the price of Global Exceed has long since departed.
Favourite factor: Both favourites to date have finished out with the washing.
2.30: Three and four-year-olds have equally split the eight renewals of this event to date, whilst five of the last six winners carried 8-13 to more to victory. John Gosden’s Galileo colt GARRICK should follow up his debut Newcastle victory successfully if adapting to turf. It took time for the penny to drop at Gosforth Park but distancing himself from the runner up to good effect inside the final furlong, GARRICK made a pleasing enough debut to suggest that another win is on the cards in this grade/company. SPARTE QUERCUS has offered plenty of consistent form thus far and we can expect Ed Dunlop’s raider to gain another Placepot position, probably without winning on this occasion. The reserve nomination is award to the only course winner in the race, namely Grapevine.
Favourite factor: Level stake investors would have gained five points to date by backing the market leaders in this event. Four of the eight favourites have finished in the frame (exact science) thus far.
Record of the course winners in the second race:
3.00: Richard Hannon’s only two runners on the card clash in the same race, with his debut Nottingham winner ALL OUT joined by stable companion CONVINCED who is an Invincible Spirit newcomer. Richard should snare a Placepot position at the very least between this pair, though I will add DESERT TRIP from David Menuisier’s yard for ‘insurance’ purposes. David does well with his small string of runners with plenty of his juveniles having shown ability this term.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Windsor card. That said, you might like to look at the following facts because as far as I can determine, this is (in principle) the same race as has been the case for many years, given that the powers that be only deem this to be a new event because of the novice prefix which I have spouted on about for far too long this season. It is (simply) your choice if you believe my figures or their non-existent ones! 11 of the 21 favourites have secured Placepot positions during the extended study period, whilst eight of the last thirteen contests have fallen the way of market leaders. The last fourteen winners have produced a top priced gold medallist of 10/1.
3.30: All four winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-1 via three renewals which in theory eliminates eight of the ten horses in the handicap. The pick of the two qualifiers on this occasion appears to be the fast ground course winner SANDY SHORES, though the one exception to my trend with a chance here is CLEF who saddled by the astute Richard Fahey who rarely misses a trick. Richard saddled last year’s winner off a similar mark and with three of the four contests having fallen to three-year-olds, I expect the ratio to be extended here. That all said, Eve Johnson Houghton has enjoyed a fabulous season and the chance for KILLAY to secure a Placepot position is there for all to see despite the negative weight trend.
Favourite factor: Four of the five favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions (one 5/1 winner) via four contests thus far.
Record of the course winners in the fourth contest on the card:
1/6—Fastnet Spin (soft)
1/6—Sandy Shores (good to firm)
4.00: Nine of the thirteen runners carry 8-13 or more, as have the last seven winners of this contest. The last six runners saddled by Roger Varian have been beaten which is a rare (negative) stat to offer these days as far as the popular trainer is concerned. Roger should put that run to an end here with his only runner on the card, namely ZEELANDER who looks to be tailor made for his first attempt in a handicap. My eye is also drawn to MISS LIGURIA who is given a chance to put a beaten favourite effort behind her at potentially rewarding odds. The general 14/1 quote this morning make plenty of appeal albeit from a win perspective, ZEELANDER is the undoubted call.
Favourite factor: Two winning favourites have been recorded during the last decade, with nine of the ten gold medallists have been returned at a top price of 10/1.
4.30: Four-year-olds have won six of the last 13 renewals and it defied belief that there was only one vintage representative twelve months ago! Upwards and onward by informing that there are three such creatures potentially facing the starter today, the pick of which appears to be PADDY POWER. Ed Walker saddles another each way type on the card in ABIENTO (Miss Liguria in the previous race is also a stable contender at the meeting), whilst BUCCANEERS VAULT completes my trio against the remaining twelve entries.
Favourite factor: Five favourites have won via 20 renewals, whilst six other market leaders additionally secured toteplacepot positions.
Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/3—Bahamian Dollar (good to firm)
1/1—Abiento (good to firm
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Windsor card on Monday followed by their ratios at the track this season + profit/losses accrued:
5 runners—Richard Fahey (0/4)
4—Ed Dunlop (0/18)
3—Andrew Balding (3/25 – loss of 9 points)
3—Luca Cumani (0/4)
3—David Evans (5/66 – loss of 34 points)
2—Mick Channon (1/22 – loss of 18 points)
2—Charlie Fellows (2/13 +1)
2—John Gosden (4/15 – loss of 3 points)
2—Richard Hannon (14/63 +5)
2—Charlie Hills (3/25 – loss of 7 points)
2—Stuart Kittow (0/1)
2—George Margarson (1/6 – loss of 2 points)
2—David Menuisier (No previous runners this season)
2—Paul Midgley (No previous runners this season)
2—Gary Moore (0/18)
2—Amanda Perrett (1/13 – loss of 4 points)
2—Brendan Powell (1/20 – loss of 7 points)
2—John Ryan (0/6)
2—Marcus Tregoning (1/6 – loss of 2 points)
2—Ed Walker (8/27 +9)
+ 45 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
93 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Musselburgh: £174.00 – 7 favourites – No winners – 3 placed – 4 unplaced
Yarmouth: £67.30 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced