PLUMPTON – DECEMBER 18
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £16.30 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)
Monday's Placepot permutation at Plumpton:
Leg 1 (12.20): 1 (Knocknanuss) & 14 (Lisp)
Leg 2 (12.50): 1 (Fixe Le Cap) & 3 (Not Another Muddle)
Leg 3 (1.20): 8 (Sam Brown), 1 (Delire D’Estruval) & 3 (New To This Town)
Leg 4 (1.50): 1 (City Supreme), 4 (Leith Hill Lad) & 5 (Talk Of The South)
Leg 5 (2.25): 7 (Café Au Lait) & 2 (Le Capriceux)
Leg 6 (3.00): 2 (Stoical Patient), 6 (Finnegan’s Garden) & 4 (Easter In Paris)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.20: Gary Moore has secured three of the four renewals to date, having saddled the silver medallist in the race that eluded the stable. Penalised runners have won three of the four contests thus far whereby Gary Moore’s KNOCKNANUSS has been well placed by the trainer who seemingly only has LISP to worry about. Layers are offering ‘14/1 bar the two’ at the time of writing and from a Placepot perspective, there seems to be little reason why I should waste any more time on the contest.
Favourite factor: Three of the four market leaders have claimed Placepot positions, though the one favourite of the trio that did not actually win its respected event was sent off as a beaten 1/4 chance twelve months ago.
Record of the course winner in the opening event:
1/2—Knocknanuss (good to firm)
12.50: Nicky Henderson saddled the beaten 1/4 favourite in the opening event last year whereby punters might take that stat as a sobering thought before wading into Nicky’s only runner on the card today, namely FIXE LE CAP. That said, connections will probably take the view that any problem here is likely to be in front of the Kapgarde gelding (relating to the fences) rather than a realistic threat from his three rivals, albeit NOT ANOTHER MUDDLE is certainly a horse with ability. With only five races under his belt as a six-year-old, Gary Moore’s soft ground Fontwell winner has not been the easiest horse to handle, though I can’t see either of the other pair really troubling the afore mentioned contenders, though SILVERHOW will surely claim the bronze medal if the race pans out as suggested.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Plumpton card.
1.20: Five-year-olds have won half (6/12) of the recent contests, with SAM BROWN looking to extend the good run of vintage representatives in this novice hurdle event. Anthony Honeyball has his runners in fine fettle just now, producing stats of 12/52 since the end of October, figures which have realised five points of level stake profit. Unfortunately for connections, Ben Pauling (DELIRE D’ESTRUVAL) and Colin Tizzard (NEW TO THIS TOWN) are also in fine form and this trio look set to dominate proceedings at the business end of the contest.
Favourite factor: Favourites come to the gig on a seven timer, whilst nine of the last ten market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science).
Record of the course winner in the third race:
1.50: Horses carrying 11-6 or more come into the gig having won the last four renewals and six of the last eight contests. CIIY SUPREME and LEITH HILL LAD (listed in order of preference) represent some each way value from the ‘superior’ sector of the handicap, whilst TALK OF THE SOUTH is added into the Placepot equation. The lads/lasses in the trade press office were fanciful in suggesting that BEARS RAILS would start at 3/1 but then again, the current 15/8 quote does not offer any value and somewhere down the line, I have to speculate that there is a race on the card that could produce the spark to ignite the Placepot flame.
Favourite factor: Although only two favourites have won during the last decade, nine of the ten winners scored at a top price of 8/1, whilst the other gold medallist could hardly be classed as a no-hoper having previaled at 12/1. That said, only two of the last six market leaders have secured Placepot positions.
Record of the course winners in the field:
1/2—City Supreme (heavy)
1/5—Talk Of The South (soft)
2/11—Frank N Fair (good & good to soft)
2.25: Results were against the punters until the last three favourites obliged and potential investors must have wished that the 9/4 suggestion in the trade press about CAFE AU LAIT was a realistic quote. The best price on offer at the time of writing is 5/6 and it’s doubtful if the market leader is going into odds against territory given the lack of strength relating to his rivals. Only in June and September this year has Dan Shelton failed to notch double figure win totals and even then, the trainer boasted a 17% strike rate which many handlers would be happy to achieve on a long term basis. The writing was on the wall in the 2013/14 season when Dan secured 73 winners which nearly trebled the tally from the previous term. Now needing just one gold medallist to match last year’s total of 118, I’m not sure just how much people really appreciate this meteoric rise in such a short career. The two youngest (six-year-old) rivals might chase CAFÉ AU LAIT home on this occasion, namely LE CAPRICEUX and BLUE APRIL.
Favourite factor: Nine of the last ten winners have scored at a top price of 17/2.
Record of the course winners in the fifth contest on the card:
1/3—Thundering Home (good to soft)
2/12—Kastani Beach (good & heavy)
3.00: Two defectors have potentially put this event into ‘win only’ territory which could make all the difference to the eventual Placepot dividend. Yes, STOICAL PATIENT should land the hat trick in this grade/company but because of the uncertainty relating to the number of participants, I’m including FINNEGAN’S GARDEN and EASTER IN PARIS in the Placepot mix.
Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed during the last decade. That said, three of the last six winners have scored at 33/1, 16/1 & 14/1; hence my worry relating to a potential ‘win only’ event unfolding.
Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:
1/2—Stoical Patient (good to soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Plumpton card on Monday – followed by the number of winners they have saddled (in brackets) on the corresponding card during the last five years:
8 runners—Gary Moore (6)
5—Anthony Honeyball (1)
4—Paul Henderson (1)
3—Colin Tizzard (1)
2—Zoe Davidson (1)
2—Nick Gifford (1)
2—Linda Jewell (1)
2—Brendan Powell (1)
+ 19 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
58 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Ffos Las: £57.90 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced
Musselburgh: This is a new meeting on the racing calendar
Wolverhampton: £370.50 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced