Placepot Pointers

Placepot Pointers – Monday 18th September

BRIGHTON - SEPTEMBER 18

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £138.00 (8 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Brighton: 

Leg 1 (1.35): 4 (Edge), 3 (Oceanus) & 1 (Saint Helena)

Leg 2 (2.10): 8 (Tesorina) & 2 (Poetic Affair)

Leg 3 (2.40): 4 (Tifi), 7 (Lady Morel) & 2 (Baltic Prince)

Leg 4 (3.10): 1 (Papou Tony), 6 (Touch Of Color) & 4 (The Special One)

Leg 5 (3.45): 4 (Highly Sprung), 3 (Ladweb) & 2 (Marie Of Lyon)

Leg 6 (4.15): 8 (Lord E) & 9 (Esspeegee)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.35: Horses carrying at least nine stones have secured 13 of the 18 available toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include five of the six winners which were returned at 10/1-8/1-9/2-3/1**-11/4.  Eight of the twelve horses are eliminated via the stats, figures which include one runner who drops into the ‘inferior’ sector of the handicap via a jockey claim.  EDGE, OCEANUS and SAINT HELENA are the trio making most appeal at the time of writing though from a win perspective, no horse jumps off the page.  If pushed, I would nominate Saint Helena as the each way call in the contest.

Favourite factor: Only two of the seven favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions via six renewals (one winner at 11/4).

Record of course winners in the opening contest:

1/4--Edge (good)

4/18—Port Lairge (2 x good – good - heavy)

1/3—Tojosimbre (good to firm)

 

2.10: We have already lost two of the nine declarations whereby a ‘short field’ race is set before us in a race which was difficult to assess, even before the withdrawals reader their ugly heads.  TESORINA is the tentative call over Mark Johnston’s Poet’s Voice newcomer POETIC AFFAIR. For new readers, it might be worth informing that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races, in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: Three of the six favourites secured toteplacepot positions via five renewals, statistics which include one (6/5**) winner.

 

2.40: Perhaps I am guilty of being cynical, but why is it that a nine runner race is diluted down to seven before the ink has time to dry on the (2.10) page, yet a 15 runner event like this one remains ‘intact’ overnight? I must start ‘getting out’ more!  Four-year-olds have won three of the last six contests, whist six of the seven gold medallists in total carried nine stones or more to victory. The recent Chepstow winner TIFI is the only horse with ticks in both of the trend boxes.  LADY MOREL and BALTIC PRINCE are added into the equation via the weight trend.

Favourite factor: Five of the eight market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions via seven renewals, statistics which include four winners.

Record of course winners in the third event:

1/5—Corporal Maddox (good to soft)

2/2—Tigerfish (good & good to firm)

1/3—Lady Morel (good)

 

3.10: This is the second division of the previous race on the card, whereby the same stats apply. Four-year-olds have won three of the last six contests, whist six of the seven gold medallists in total carried nine stones or more to victory. In contrast to the first heat of this event, five four-year-olds qualify via the trends, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be PAPOU TONY, TOUCH OF COLOR and THE SPECIAL ONE, the trio being listed in marginal order of preference.

Favourite factor:  Five of the eight market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions via seven renewals, statistics which include four winners.

Record of course winners in the fourth race:

1/5—The Special One (good to firm)

1/5—Suni Dancer (good)

3/24—Lutine Charlie (good – good to firm – firm)

 

3.45: Mark Johnston’s second (and final) runner on the card is HIGHLY SPRUNG, the trainer boasting a fine record here at Brighton as you can see in the relevant part of the analysis below.  I would not be at all surprised if the remaining quotes of 6/1 about Mark’s Zebedee gelding is gobbled up before the shops open on Monday morning.  LADWEB and MARIE OF LYON are others to take into consideration.

Favourite factor: Four of the six market leaders (via five renewals) have finished in the money, including two successful (3/1** & 2/1) favourites.

Record of course winners in the fifth event:

1/4—Ladweb (good)

1/1—Fang (good)

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4/24—Whitecrest (2 x good – good to soft – good to firm)

 

4.15:  Seven of the nine renewals have been won by horses carrying a minimum burden on nine stones, stats which eliminate eight of the fourteen declarations if we include jockey claims.  LORD E and ESSPEEGEE are consistent types in terms of being in the thick of things as jockeys raise their whips, albeit their 20 aggregate assignments on the level have yet to produce a victory between them.  That all changed for LORD E the last day over hurdles however, whereby Gary Moore’s three-year-old is challenging for a place in my permutation, despite being dropped below the weight barrier by Hector Crouch’s claim.  ESSPEEGEE is marginally preferred to Altaira with just two Placepot positions up for grabs to complete my permutation.

Favourite factor:  Eight of the ten favourites have finished in the frame to date via nine renewals, statistics which include two winners.

Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/1--Kilim (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Brighton card on Monday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

5—Scott Dixon (2/7 +16)

5—Julia Feilden (2/17 – loss of 11 points)

4—Tony Carroll (1/34 – loss of 30 points)

4—Daniel Steele (0/4)

3—Lee Carter (0/3)

3—John Gallagher (2/16 – loss of 3 points)

3—Gary Moore (8/38 +44)

2—Michael Blanshard (0/1)

2—Richard Fahey (No previous runners this season)

2—Ed De Giles (1/10 +5)

2—Mark Gillard (0/4)

2—Rae Guest (1/4 – loss of 1 point)

2—Richard Hannon (7/26 +18)

2—Shaun Harris (1/1 +7)

2—Mark Johnston (7/17 +5)

2—Sylvester Kirk (3/21 – loss of 2 points)

2—Phil McEntee (0/13)

2—Tony Newcombe (0/4)

2—Jonathan Portman (1/5 +3)

2—Brendan Powell (0/2)

2—John Spearing (1/4 +2)

2—Ali Stronge (1/4 +5)

2—Joseph Tuite (1/10 – loss of 2 points)

2—Adam West (0/3)

+ 33 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

94 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Carlisle: £85.10 – 9 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

Worcester: £126.70 – 8 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £30.70 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 1 unplaced

 

 

 

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