CARLISLE – FEBRUARY 19
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £51.10 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)
Monday's Placepot permutation at Carlisle:
Leg 1 (2.00): 5 (Truckers Lodge), 2 (Henry’s Joy) & 1 (Ballinslea Bridge)
Leg 2 (2.30): 1 (Copper West), 9 (Dakota Grey) & 5 (Take A Break)
Leg 3 (3.00): 4 (Swing Hard) & 3 (Granville Island)
Leg 4 (3.35): 3 (Slanelough) & 5 (Blottos)
Leg 5 (4.05): 9 (Haul Us In), 8 (Point N Shoot) & 6 (Pinch Of Ginger)
Leg 6 (4.44): 1 (Chidswell) & 5 (Bako De Le Saulaie)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
2.00: Tom George has only saddled two horses here at Carlisle during the last five years (both beaten) yet Tom has declared three runners on today’s card. TRUCKERS LODGE is the first inmate on parade and there is every chance that Tom’s beaten (Wetherby) favourite can make amends here with (seemingly) HENRY’S JOY and BALLINSLEA BRIDGE to beat. The latter named raider is Olly Murphy’s first ever runner at the Cumbrian venue.
Favourite factor: Market leaders come into the race on a hat trick, albeit the last two favourites were the only gold medallists via six renewals to date. From a win perspective, it’s worth noting that two 4/9 chances in the race have been beaten. The last five favourites have claimed Placepot positions.
2.30: COPPER WEST is the second Tom George runner on the card and his Placepot chance is there for all to see in this grade/company. DAKOTA GREY and TAKE A BREAK are offer up as potential each way alternative options. Micky Hammond (Dakota Grey) has his team in fine order, whilst Nigel Hawke secured a double on last year’s corresponding card and there will be worse outsiders at Carlisle than Take A Break from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: There is just one successful (11/4) favourite to report via six contests to date, whilst three of the six market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science).
Course winners in the second race:
1/2—Cesar Collonges (soft)
2/2—Barrys Jack (soft & heavy)
2/12—Pistol (2 x heavy)
1/4—Dakota Grey (heavy)
1/16—Snowed In (soft)
3.00: There are stats and there are statistics but whichever way you want to load the dice, it’s impossible to ignore Sue Smith’s record in the event. Sue has saddled the winner of this race four times and the only time she suffered defeat was when her 16/1 chance was beaten five years ago. Sue’s stats of 1/14 at the track this season dilutes interest to a fashion but even so, dual course and distance winner (on soft and heavy ground) SWING HARD has to be the call. Five of the six winners carried a minimum burden of eleven stones, which also brings recent heavy ground winners GRANVILLE ISLAND and UNTTIL WINNING into the equation.
Favourite factor: Although market leaders have won the last two renewals, the previous four favourites all finished out with the washing.
Course winner in the field:
2/4—Swing Hard (soft & heavy)
3.35: Four of the last five winners have carried 11-2 or more which bodes well for the chance of course winner SLANELOUGH, especially as Rose Dobbin has saddled three of her nine runners at Carlisle this season to winning effect. BLOTTOS carries the popular white, yellow and green colours of Trevor Hemmings and with Sue Smith currently enjoying a 33% strike rate via her last eight winners, plenty of ‘locals’ will be cheering the six-year-old on.
Favourite factor: Four of the six favourites have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include two successful (7/2 & 13/8) market leaders. That said the last four contests have slipped by without a winning favourite being recorded. The statisticians among you will offer the positive point that favourite backers remain over 11 points up to level stakes thus far.
Course winners in the fourth contest on the card:
3/4—Lord Bullin (3 x good to soft)
4.05: The top three horses in the handicap have lost their way in recent times whereby HAUL US IN, POINT N SHOOT and PINCH OF GINGER look safer Placepot options on this occasion. That said, nothing could prize money from my wallet/pocket to have a bet in the race from a win perspective.
Favourite factor: Just one the three favourites secured a Placepot position by winning its respective event at odds of 15/8.
4.40: It’s not too often that Nicky Richards allows a Carlisle meeting to drift by without saddling a gold medallist and in CHIDSWELL, Nicky has a decent chance of greeting his nine-year-old in the area reserved for the winner in the unsaddling enclosure. Arguably, it’s BAKO DE LE SAULAIE who could turn out to be the joker in the pack as far as Nicky and his team is concerned. The reserve nomination is awarded to Never Up.
Favourite factor: The last two (6/4 & 3/1) favourites having finished down the field following the success of the inaugural 4/1 market leader in 2015.
Course winners in the Placepot finale:
2/4—Un Guet Apens (2 x soft)
1/1—Never Up (heavy)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Carlisle card on Monday – followed by their stats this season at the track (in brackets) + five year ratios & profits/losses accrued on both counts:
6 runners—Brian Ellison (2/7 – loss of 2 points) – 8/48 – loss of 17
4—Sue Smith (1/14 – loss of 8) – 15/106 – loss of 22
3—Tom George (0/1) – 0/2
3—Nigel Hawke (0/2) – 8/22 +7
3—Lucinda Russell (1/13 – loss of 10) – 9/154 – loss of 99
2—Nick Alexander (0/8) – 1/71 – loss of 28
2—Jenny Candlish (0/9) – 8/66 – loss of 28)
2—Susan Corbett (1/7 +4) – 2/27 - +5
2—Rose Dobbin (3/9 +9) – 9/65 – loss of 17
2—Ann Hamilton (1/3 – loss of 1) – 2/18 – loss of 8)
2—Micky Hammond (1/13 – loss of 4) – 6/95 – loss of 62
2—Donald McCain (3/25 +21) – 35/188 – loss of 22
2—Olly Murphy (First ever runners at Carlisle)
2—Nicky Richards (2/7 +1) – 18/79 +18
+ 16 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
53 declared runners