PLUMPTON – NOVEMBER 20
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £21.60 (6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 placed)
Monday's Placepot permutation at Plumpton:
Leg 1 (1.10): 1 (Landin) & 7 (Tikkenbar)
Leg 2 (1.40): 1 (Benatar) & 2 (Keeper Hill)
Leg 3 (2.10): 2 (Dalamar) & 1 (Kastani Beach)
Leg 4 (2.40): 1 (Chef D’Equipe), 7 (Astrum) & 6 (Sandhurst Lad)
Leg 5 (3.10): 8 (Little Windmill), 1 (Master Burbidge) & 7 (Saint Contest)
Leg 6 (3.40): 6 (Roparta Avenue), 1 (Mab Dab) & 5 (Landscape)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.10: The front pair in the market have plenty going for them in this grade/company and with support for the other runners only conspicuous by its absence in the dead of night, LANDIN gets the marginal call over TIKKANBAR for openers. Seamus Mullins boasts a 25% strike rate at the track this season (minimum ratio to light my blue touch paper) and being race fit with a claimer aboard to negate the penalty for a recent Worcester success, LANDIN could register his second win from seven starts in this green and (mostly) pleasant land.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Plumpton card.
Record of the course winner in the opening race:
1.40: I promised readers that I would research some figures in terms of the ‘outsider of three’ theory over the weekend and with just a trio of entries here, what better time to report back to you with my findings. Eight relevant races have produced one 4/1 winner during the month of November to date, resulting in a level stake loss of three points. Going back to last year during the same period (up to and including the Sunday of the Cheltenham meeting), 2.5 points would have been gained via 12 such contests. I omitted one race as there were joint second/third favourites returned, one of which won. I will report back with more extensive stats in the not too distant future. That said, there will not be too many takers relating to the relevant beast here (Britanio Bello) I’ll wager, with BENATAR and KEEPER HILL having been declared, the pair being listed in order of preference. Ensure that you take account of the favourite facts below!
Favourite factor: Try and remind yourself that you have not enjoyed an alcoholic beverage to wash breakfast down this morning when reading that the last ten renewals of this novice chase event have been won by favourites!
2.10: There is a fair few quid in the positive queue waiting to be accommodated for dual course winner KASTANI BEACH, though it might take a career best to lower the colours of Neil Muholland’s recent Chepstow winner DALAMAR who was scoring under the same type of (good to soft) conditions which are projected this afternoon. Three of the other four runners ‘boast’ aggregate stats of 1/29, whilst the other (My Lord) is woefully out of form.
Favourite factor: We still await the first successful favourite in the race following three renewals thus far, though two of the trio of market leaders secured Placepot positions.
Record of the course winner in the third contest on the card:
2/11—Kastani Beach (good & heavy)
2.40: Six-year-olds have won all three contests thus far, yet only Warren Grertrex among the training ranks has smelt the coffee on this occasion by declaring SANDHURST LAD. Warren’s Presenting gelding remains a maiden following five assignments thus far, though this is an easier race than when contesting a Sandown event last time out. Reverting back to timber-topping now, SANDHURST LAD is included in my Placepot mix alongside more logical winners, namely CHEF D’EQUIPE and ASTRUM whose trainer Phil Middleton can do very little wrong at present. ASTRUM has his (half decent) ground whereby a sixth career win is not out of the question here by any means. 11/1 is still available if you believe in positive ratios though the one worry in my mind is this step up in trip. Failing that, 11/1 makes ASTRUM an each way play from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: Two of the three favourites have claimed Placepot positions to date by winner their respective events at 11/10 & 11/8.
Record of the course winners in the fourth event:
1/7—Mercers Court (good)
1/2—Guards Chapel (good)
2/12—Invicta Lake (good & good to soft)
3.10: Seven-year-olds come into the race on a four timer, though that information should have been written in the singular sense as only LITTLE WINDMILL represents the vintage on this occasion. Neil King’s raider boasts a 40% record at this venue and with the ground in his favour, LITTLE WINDMILL can be expected to secure a Placepot position at the very least. The main dangers appear to be MASTER BURBIDGE (also at home under these conditions) and SAINT CONTEST.
Favourite factor: Four of the six favourites have finished in the money (exact science), stats which include three (13/8. 7/4 & 5/2) winners.
Record of the course winners in the fifth race:
3/9—Mr Muddle (good – good to firm – soft)
2/5—Little Windmill (2 x good to firm)
3.40: LANDSCAPE is the tentative each way call if that’s the way you want to play the race, though course winners ROPARTA AVENUE and MAB DAB should take plenty of kicking out of the (short field) frame. I’m only adding LANDSCAPE into the equation because of the limited number of Placepot positions available in a race which should not prove difficult to win. New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify via each way & Placepot perspectives.
Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is the second of the new races on the programme.
Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/2—Mab Dab (good to firm)
4/9—Hold The bucks (4 x soft)
1/7—Roparta Avenue (good)
3/19—Flugzeug (good – good to firm – good to soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Plumpton card on Monday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
4 runners—Gary Moore (3/18 – loss of 9 points)
3—Chris Gordon (3/11 +5)
3—Neil Mulholland (1/9 – loss of 6 points)
3—Seamus Mullins (2/8 +7)
2—Alexandra Dunn (0/2)
2—Warren Greatrex (No previous runners this season)
2—Linda Jewell (1/3 +6)
2—Neil King (1/7 – level profit/loss this season)
2—Bernard Llewellyn (No previous runners)
2—Suzy Smith (0/2)
2—Daniel Steele (0/1)
+ 13 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
40 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Leicester: Meeting abandoned
Wolverhampton: This is a new meeting on the racing calendar