WINDSOR - AUGUST 21
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £23.60 (6 favourites - 5 winners & 1 unplaced)
Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor:
Leg 1 (5.20): 1 (Snazzy Jazzy) & 4 (Qianlong)
Leg 2 (5.50): 7 (Eskendash), 10 (Essenaitch) & 9 (Glorious Poet)
Leg 3 (6.20): 4 (UAE Queen), 5 (Medicean Ballet) & 7 (Snow Squaw)
Leg 4 (6.50): 6 (Ice Age), 1 (Stake Acclaim) & 4 (Spring Loaded)
Leg 5 (7.20): 4 (Maazel), 10 (Liberatum) & 5 (Peace Dreamer)
Leg 6 (7.50): 3 (Ennjaaz) & 7 (Turnpike Trip)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Windsor - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
5.20: This is another of the ‘new’ races installed by the BHA because of its change of status (now a novice race instead of an ordinary maiden event. Roger Varian has won with six of his last eleven runners and the ratio could improve today, albeit the popular trainer has six runners entered up, four of which run here at Windsor. QIANLONG is the first representative on the card and there was plenty to like about his runner up effort at Nottingham on his first day at school. That said, the ground was heavy at Colwick Park that day whereby he might need every one of the six pound concession from SNAZZY JAZZY who gained his debut victory under today’s projected (good) conditions at Goodwood. There was rain on the radar at the time I checked Windsor this morning at 3.30 but that is (seemingly) due to clear for the rest of the day at first light. Society Power demands a market check as the day progresses from your perspective, given that I have to play my cards much earlier this morning as far as this column is concerned.
Favourite factor: To be fair, I have clung on to the trends in these events because the change has been minimum (nothing at times). That said, this event had changed in grade whereby I am including the trend for the last time so this time next year, I will only be showing today’s result. The six favourites to date have secured four gold medals and two of the silver variety if you (conveniently) ignore the slight alteration.
5.50: Although ESKENDASH has only won once thus far, Pam Sly’s gelding has finished ‘in the two’ on six of his seven assignments whereby the trade press quote of 13/2 looks wide of the mark. Yes, the success was gained away from turf whilst Adam Kirby’s mount comes to the gig as a beaten favourite. That said, these rivals do not make a habit of winning either and with the selection being far less exposed than most, ESKENDASH would be classed as a ‘knocking’ each way bet if you could secure 5/1, though I doubt bookmakers will be that generous. Punters do not always understand that when layers price up these events, bookmakers will do everything they can to protect their place liabilities when quoting the relevant odds. I suspect you will be doing well to obtain 9/2 whereby you will suffer a slight loss should Pam’s raider finish in the frame without winning. The race is (otherwise) full of imponderables, whereby speculative Placepot investors could include ESSENAITCH and GLORIOUS POET, hoping that hoses with far more Placepot units finish out with the washing.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Windsor card.
Record of the course winner in the second race:
1/3—Captain Peacock (good)
1/2—Michael’s Mount (good to soft)
1/3—Outback Blue (good)
1/8—Essenaitch (good to soft)
6.20: Three-year-olds have won seven of the last eight (and eight of the last ten) contests, with vintage representatives UAE QUEEN and MEDICEAN BALLET appearing to hold strong Placepot chances, the pair being listed in order of preference. UAE QUEEN is the second of the Roger Varian runners on the card, whilst Henry Candy (Medicean Ballet) has saddled three horses to claim Placepot positions at the meeting during the last five years, albeit Henry’s runners have all been beaten from a win perspective. There will be worse outsiders to consider on the card than SNOW SQUAW I’ll wager, with David Elsworth’s Excelebration filly vying for a place in my Placepot mix at the time of writing.
Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders and two joint favourites have secured this prize during the last eleven years, whilst 11 of the 15 jollies have reached the frame (exact science).
Record of the course winner in the third contest:
1/2—High On Love (good to firm)
1/5—Fastnet Spin (soft)
6.50: ICE AGE looks set to be sent off at a bigger price than when finishing third in this race last year when beaten four and a quarter lengths from stall 10. Drawn slight wider (11) tonight, ICE AGE still represents the win and place call from my viewpoint, given that the relevant three pound claimer nearly negates what would have been an inferior differential compared to twelve months ago. A winner here over course and distance last time to qualify for this finale of the series, ICE AGE carries a five pound penalty accordingly, though the four-year-old is still marginally preferred to STAKE ACCLAIM and SPRING LOADED at the prices on offer.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/1 favourite finished nearer last than first in a race in which the frame was filled by horses returned at 7/1, 16/1 & 9/1 (Ice Age).
Record of the course winners in the main event on the card.
2/5—Stake Acclaim (good & soft)
1/2—Spring Loaded (good)
1/3--Atletico (good to soft)
2/6—Ice Age (good to firm & good to soft)
1/1—Parnassian (good to firm)
1/3—Open Wide (good to firm)
1/4—Major Pusey (good to soft)
2/6—Englishman (good & soft)
7.20: Each way support had arrived overnight for Ruth Carr’s northern raider LIBERATUM and PEACE DREAMER by the time I came to look at this event and with nothing else to work with, this pair will be included in my Placepot equation alongside MAAZEL, who is the last of the sextet of Varian representatives today. First time blinkers would only need to bring about a modicum of improvement in Roger’s Elzaam gelding to take him very close in this grade/company.
Favourite factor: This is another new race on the Windsor programme.
Record of the course winners in the penultimate leg of our favourite wager:
1/4—Sandfrankskipsgo (good to firm)
1/3—Awesome Allan (soft)
7.50: Three-year-olds invariably get the better of their older rivals in these mixed vintage maiden events and the trend should be extended here with Saeed Bin Suroor’s newcomer ENNJAAZ having been declared alongside TURNPIKE TRIP and LEWINSKY. Henry Candy appears to have found an easier opportunity for TURNPIKE TRIP, albeit Dane O’Neill’s mount enters my ‘last chance saloon’ this evening. ENNJAAZ will be Saeed’s third winner in a row if he can land the spoils at the first time of asking, with Pat Cosgrave having waited since the opening race for only his second ride at the meeting.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 8/13 market leader duly obliged. 8/13 does not make a lot of sense to many people outside of the sport and even some inside the sport of kings. If ever odds fail to make any sense, simply grab a calculator and in this case divide 8 by 13 to give you the sum of .615. Simply add a point to that total and divide 100 by 1.615 to give you the correct percentage of 61.9%. If you believe the horse, greyhound or football team has a 65% chance of winning any event you should play at odds of 8/13. If (before you did the math) you only rated the relevant chance at 55%, keep your cash under lock and key. There is nothing complicated about it all really.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Win & place format for relevant represented trainers (Five year study period relating to the corresponding meeting) at Windsor tonight:
Trainers with at least 1 winner and 2 placed horses
Gary Moore – 3 winners (5/1, 11/10* & 8/11*) & 2 placed – 1 runner tonight:
100/1 chance Sampaquita (7.50)
‘Team Hannon’ – 1 winner (5/2*) + 4 places – 4 runners tonight: Heidi (5.20), Boucie (5.50), Carducci (6.20) & Tomily (6.50)
Trainers who failed to saddle a winner but who have had at least three horses placed:
Henry Candy – 3 placed horses 7/1, 3/1 & 7/4) – 3 runners tonight: Medicean Bullet (6.20), Beck And Call (7.20) & Turnpike Trip (7.50)
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Lingfield: £6.60 – 6 favourites – 5 winners & 1 placed
Thirsk: £8.00 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 placed
Hexham: This is a new meeting on the racing calendar